WorldCat Identities

Roley, V. Vance 1951-

Works: 46 works in 199 publications in 1 language and 1,032 library holdings
Roles: Author, Honoree
Classifications: HB1, 332.6323
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by V. Vance Roley
A structural model of the U.S. Government securities market by V. Vance Roley( Book )
5 editions published between 1977 and 1979 in English and held by 75 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Stock prices, news, and business conditions by Grant MacQueen( Book )
8 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 59 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Previous research finds that fundamental macroeconomic news has little effect on stock prices. This study shows that after allowing for different stages of the business cycle, a stronger relationship between stock prices and news is evident. In particular, the empirical results suggest that the effect of news about real economic activity depends on the varying responses of expected cash flows relative to equity discount rates. When the economy is strong, for example, the stock market responds negatively to good news about real economic activity, reflecting the larger effect on discount rates relative to expected cash flows
Intraday yen/dollar exchange rate movements : news or noise? by Takatoshi Itō( Book )
10 editions published between 1988 and 1991 in English and Undetermined and held by 55 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Abstract: Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of departures from the random-walk model diminishes over time. Large jumps in the exchange rate also are examined, and some evidence on subsequent mean reversion is presented. Finally, the response of Japanese and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information
Federal Reserve behavior since 1980 : a financial markets perspective by William C Melton( Book )
8 editions published between 1988 and 1991 in English and held by 51 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The financial market's understanding of Federal Reserve behavior is used to examine recent changes in monetary policy. Changes in the level of interest rats in response to specific types of economic information are primarily considered. Differences in the volatility of interest rates across period provide additional evidence on changes in monetary policy regimes. The results indicate that monetary policy changed several times since 1980 with respect to either the Federal Reserve's targets, its desire to achieve its targets, or its operating procedures. The different regimes correspond to Federal Reserve statements about changes in policy. In this context, then, the evidence suggests that policy was credible
Temporal variation in the interest-rate response to money announcements by V. Vance Roley( Book )
6 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 49 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
A number of studies find significant temporal variation in the interest-rate response to money announcement surprises. An unresolved question, however, is whether the response changes immediately as different policy regimes are adopted, or whether the change is gradual reflecting the establishment of Federal Reserve credibility. This paper conducts tests that allow for both discrete shifts in the interest-rate response to money announcements and a gradual evolution in this response. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that temporal variation in the interest-rate response is limited to discrete shifts in October 1979, October 1982, arid February 1984
News from the U.S. and Japan : which moves the Yen/dollar exchange rate? by Takatoshi Itō( Book )
9 editions published between 1986 and 1987 in English and held by 45 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Intra-daily movements in the yen/dollar exchange rate were examined in four non-overlapping segments within each business day from January1980 to September 1985. The empirical results yielded several conclusions. First, most depreciation of the yen (appreciation of the dollar) from late 1982 to early 1984 occurred in the New York market. The direction of the yen was mostly neutral in the Tokyo market. Also, the volatility of the exchange rate decreased considerably in the Tokyo market. The volatility in the New York market, on the other hand, did not decrease untilvery recently. Second, market efficiency was examined in terms of the random-walk behavior of short-run movements in the yen/dollar rate. Information on the preceding segments within a day was sometimes significant in predicting the exchange rate movement in a market. Third, there is evidence of the "profit-taking" behavior, or overshooting, in that a large jump (more than 3 absolute yen) in any market tends to be reversed by a fifth of the jump during the same day in the next market. Finally, the relative effects of news from the U.S. and Japan were examined explicitly both with respect to possible major events behind large jumps andthe response of the yen/dollar rate to particular economic announcements in both countries. Over the entire sample period, news concerning the U.S. money stock had the only significant effects
Firm characteristics, unanticipated inflation, and stock returns by Douglas K Pearce( Book )
6 editions published between 1987 and 1989 in English and held by 39 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper re-examines the effects of nominal contracts on the relationship between unanticipated inflation and individual stock's rate of return. This study differs in three main ways from previous research. First, announced inflation data are used to examine the effects of unanticipated inflation. Second, a different specification is used to obtain more efficient estimates. Third, additional nominal contracts are considered. The empirical results indicate that time-varying firm characteristics related to inflation predominately determine the effect of unanticipated inflation on a stock's rate of return. A firm's debt-equity ratio appears to be particularly important in determining the response
The response of interest rates to money announcements under alternative operating procedures and reserve requirement systems by V. Vance Roley( Book )
6 editions published between 1985 and 1988 in English and held by 37 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The response of interest rates to money announcement surprises is examined both theoretically and empirically in this paper. In the theoretical models developed, not only changes in operating procedures, but also reserve requirement systems, are found to potentially affect the response. Moreover, under the current two-week contemporaneous reserve requirements (CRR) adopted in February 1984, the responses in the first and second weeks of the two-week reserve maintenance period may differ. The empirical results generally conform to the predictions of the theoretical models. The response of the Treasury bill yield to money announcement surprises changed significantly following changes in either operating procedures or reserve requirement systems in October 1979, October 1982, and February 1984
Stock prices and economic news by Douglas K Pearce( )
8 editions published between 1984 and 1985 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines the daily response of stock prices to announcements about the money supply, inflation, real economic activity, and the discountrate. Except for the discount rate, survey data on market participants' expectations of these announcements are used to identify the unexpected component of the announcements in order to test the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unexpected part of any announcement, the surprise, moves stock prices. The empirical results support this hypothesis and indicate further that surprises related to monetary policy significantly affect stock prices. There is only limited evidence of an impact from inflation surprises and no evidence of an impact from real activity surprises on the announcement days. There is also only weak evidence of stock price responses to surprises beyond the announcement day
Monetary policy regimes, expected inflation, and the response of interest rates to money announcements by V. Vance Roley( )
6 editions published between 1983 and 1986 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses.Both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses, but they have sharply different implications about the Federal Reserve's short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent effects on the level of the money stock, reflecting shifts in the Federal Reserve's long-run target. In contrast, the policy anticipations hypothesis implies that the effectof money surprises should diminish over time, reflecting the Federal Reserve's desire to offset deviations from target. Additional empirical results reported in the paper support this latter description of the money stock process
Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates by V. Vance Roley( )
5 editions published in 1984 in English and held by 31 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Evidence on the relationship between unanticipated money and interestrates has been provided by two types of studies. First, several researchers have investigated the relationship using quarterly data. Second, a number of researchers have examined the effect of money announcement surprises on interest rates. In both instances, the correlation between money surprises and interest rates has usually been found to be non-negative. This paper first provides an interpretation of the correlation between unanticipated money and interest rates in terms of Federal Reserve policy objectives and operating procedures. Then, the correlation of unanticipated money and both short- and long-term interest rates is examined over weekly intervals, combining several aspects of the previous quarterly and announcement studies. In addition, the distinction between unpredicted and unperceived money also is considered
Money demand predictability by V. Vance Roley( Book )
8 editions published between 1984 and 1986 in English and Undetermined and held by 31 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The performance of empirical money demand equations over the past decade raises serious questions about money demand predictability. A variety of specifications were presented to explain past episodes of apparent money demand instability, but their success in predicting future money demand is limited in most instances. In particular, the unprecedented decline in the velocity of Ml during 1982 and 1983 was not captured fullyby any of the previously-modified conventional specifications. This paper evaluates a variety of the approaches and specifications proposed inprevious money demand studies to explain the behavior of the narrowly defined money stock from the mid 1970's through 1983. The empirical results cast doubt on the appropriateness of the conventional money demand specification in both the pre- and post- 1974 periods
Aspects of investor behavior under risk by Benjamin M Friedman( )
7 editions published between 1985 and 1987 in English and held by 31 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The three sections of this paper support three related conclusions. First, asset demands with the familiar properties of wealth homogeneity and linearity in expected returns follow as close approximations from expected utility maximizing behavior under the assumptions of constant relative risk aversion and joint normally distributed asset returns. Second, although such asset demands exhibit a symmetric coefficient matrix with respect to the relevant vector of expected asset returns, symmetry is not a general property, and the available empirical evidence warrants rejecting it for both institutional and individual investors in the United States. Finally, in a manner analogous to the finite maximum exhibited by quadratic utility, a broad class of mean-variance utility functions also exhibits a form of wealth satiation which necessarily restricts it range of applicability
Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits by V. Vance Roley( )
8 editions published in 1983 in English and held by 30 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
In this paper, the role of asset substitutability in determining the impact of debt-financed federal deficits is examined. The issues are first discussed in the context of a simple analytical model in which financial assets are disaggregated into money, federal debt, and corporate bonds. In this model, it is shown that depending on the degree of substitutability among financial assets, a range of possible outcomes associated with a change in the federal deficit is possible.Next, the issue of asset substitutability is examine dempirically in a disaggregated structural model of the Treasury security, corporate bond, and equity markets. Using this model, the implications of larger debt-financed federal deficits are then examined in a series of simulation experiments
U.S. monetary policy regimes and U.S.-Japan financial relationships by V. Vance Roley( Book )
4 editions published in 1986 in English and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The response of short-term interest rates to weekly money announcements by V. Vance Roley( )
6 editions published between 1982 and 1983 in English and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"The response of short-term interest rates to weekly money announcements since the Federal Reserve's change in operating procedures on October 6, 1979, is examined in this paper. The results indicate that the response increased significantly since October 1979, and that it varies nonlinearly according to the relation of money growth to the Federal Reserve!s long-run targets. The results also suggest that the increase in the response and the rise in the volatility of unanticipated money have contributed about equally to the large rise in interest rate volatility during this period"--NBER website
Rational expectations, the expectations hypothesis, and treasury bill yields an econometric analysis by David S Jones( )
7 editions published between 1982 and 1984 in English and held by 28 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure for three- and six-month Treasury bills. Previous studies are extended in three directions. First, common efficient markets-rational expectations tests are compared, and it is shown that four of the five tests considered are asymptotically equivalent, and that the fifth is less restrictive than the other four. Second, the joint hypothesis is tested using weekly data for Treasury bills maturing in exactly 13 and 26 weeks beginning in 1970 and ending in 1979. In contrast, previous studies using comparable data have typically discarded 12/13 of the sample to form a nonoverlapping data set. Finally, a more complete set of possible determinants of time-varying term premiums is tested"--NBER website
The reaction of stock prices to unanticipated changes in money by Douglas K Pearce( )
6 editions published between 1982 and 1984 in English and held by 28 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"This paper investigates the short-run effect of unexpected changes in the weekly money stock on common stock prices. Survey data on money market participants' forecasts of money changes are employed to construct the measure of unanticipated movements in the money stock. The results indicate that an unexpected increase in money depresses stock prices and, consistent with the efficient markets hypothesis, only the unexpected part of the weekly money announcement causes stock price fluctuations. The October 1979 change in Federal Reserve operating procedures appears to have made stock prices somewhat more sensitive to large money surprises"--NBER website
Bliss points in mean-variance portfolio models by David S Jones( )
5 editions published in 1981 in English and Undetermined and held by 27 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
When all financial assets have risky returns, the mean-variance portfolio model is potentially subject to two types of bliss points. One bliss point arises when a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function displays negative marginal utility for sufficiently large end-of-period wealth, such as in quadratic utility. The second type of bliss point involves satiation in terms of beginning-of-period wealth and afflicts many commonly used mean-variance preference functions. This paper shows that the two types of bliss points are logically independent of one another and that the latter places the effective constraint on an investor's welfare. The paper also uses Samuelson's Fundamental Approximation Theorem to motivate a particular mean-variance portfolio choice model which is not affected by either type of bliss point
Symmetry restrictions in a system of financial asset demands a theoretical and empirical analysis by V. Vance Roley( Book )
6 editions published between 1980 and 1983 in English and held by 27 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"The symmetry restriction in a system of financial asset demands has frequently been employed to reduce the number of independent parameters to be estimated. The theoretical implications of the symmetry restriction are examined in this paper, and it is found that symmetry implies a particular type of risk averse portfolio behavior. The symmetry restriction is also examined empirically, and the evidence supports symmetry only in cases where coefficients on cross-asset yields are insignificantly different from zero"--NBER website
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Alternative Names
Roley, V. Vance
Roley, Vernon V.
Roley, Vernon Vance 1951-
English (131)