WorldCat Identities

Muellbauer, John

Works: 161 works in 451 publications in 2 languages and 2,502 library holdings
Roles: Author, Contributor, Thesis advisor, Editor
Classifications: HB801, 658.834
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by John Muellbauer
Economics and consumer behavior by Angus Deaton( Book )

56 editions published between 1980 and 2009 in 3 languages and held by 1,049 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Analisi: CONSUMO. Teoria del consumo. TEORIA ECONOMICA. Microeconomia. LAVORO. In generale
The standard of living by Amartya Sen( Book )

14 editions published between 1987 and 2001 in English and Spanish and held by 582 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Reconsiders the idea of "the standard of living" and reflects on the moral and political implications
Income persistence and macro-policy feedbacks in the United States by John Muellbauer( Book )

10 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Booms and busts in the UK housing market by John Muellbauer( Book )

12 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The housing market and regional commuting and migration choices by Gavin Cameron( Book )

4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 25 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy : implications for the design of central bank models by John Muellbauer( Book )

9 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 24 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

It is widely acknowledged that the recent generation of DSGE models failed to incorporate many of the liquidity and financial accelerator mechanisms revealed in the global financial crisis that began in 2007. This paper complements the papers presented at the 2009 BIS annual conference focused on the role of banks and other financial institutions by analysing the role of household decisions and their interplay with credit conditions and asset prices in the light of empirical evidence. In DSGE models without financial frictions, asset prices are merely a proxy for income growth expectations and play no separate role. On UK aggregate consumption evidence, section 2 of the paper shows this is strongly contradicted by the data, for all possible discount rates and both for a perfect foresight and an empirical rational expectations approach to measuring income expectations. However, an Ando-Modigliani consumption function generalised to include a role for liquidity, uncertainty, time varying credit conditions, wealth and housing collateral effects, as well as income expectations, explains the data well. Section 3 reports new evidence on the striking rejection on aggregate data of the consumption Euler equation central to all DSGE models. Section 4 shows that UK micro evidence is consistent with the generalised Ando-Modigliani model. Section 5 discusses the limitations of recent DSGE models with financial frictions and housing. Section 6 discusses some business cycle implications of amplification mechanisms and non-linearities operating via households and residential construction. It reconsiders econometric methodology appropriate for designing better evidence-based central bank policy models
Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU by Duncan Maclennan( Book )

7 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 24 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Personal and corporate savings in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )

9 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 23 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The great British housing disaster and economic policy by John Muellbauer( Book )

1 edition published in 1990 in English and held by 23 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Earnings, unemployment, and housing : evidence from a panel of British regions by Gavin Cameron( Book )

8 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 22 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Interest rate effects on output : evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )

8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 22 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Credit, the stock market and oil : forecasting US GDP by John Muellbauer( Book )

6 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 21 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )

6 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 14 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Forecasting (and explaining) US business cycles by John Muellbauer( Book )

5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 14 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )

4 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 14 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

South Africa experienced substantial rises in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income from 1983, for which conventional explanations in terms of income, income expectations, interest rates and wealth prove inadequate. This paper emphasizes the role of substantial financial liberalization, which is of interest for two reasons. The first is to help understand South Africa's low saving rate, an endemic problem. The second is that unlike the UK, Scandinavia, Mexico and other countries, South Africa's financial liberalization occurred without an asset price boom, thus illuminating the direct role of financial liberalization. Previous attempts to model financial liberalization are not fully satisfactory. Our methodological innovation is to treat financial liberalization as an unobservable, proxied by a spline function, and entering both consumption and debt equations, which are jointly estimated. We also clarify the multi-faceted effects of financial liberalization on consumption. The comprehensive solved-out consumption function uses our own constructed set of personal wealth estimates at market value and income forecasts from a forecasting equation (allowing underlying macro-fundamentals to enter the model). The empirical results corroborate the theory in the paper, confirming the importance for consumer spending of extensive financial liberalization, of fluctuations in a range of asset values and asset accumulation, and of income expectations. Results suggest that households largely pierce the corporate veil. The paper also throws important light on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in South Africa
Modelling and Forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions by Janine Aron( Book )

7 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 13 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent variables estimated in a system of equations for arrears and possessions, for quarterly data over 1983-2009. A second innovation is the theory-justified use of an estimate of the proportion of mortgages in negative equity, based on an average debt to equity ratio, as one of the key drivers of possessions and arrears. A third is the systematic treatment of measurement bias in the months in arrears measures. Finally, the paper does not impose a proportional long-run relationship between possessions and arrears assumed in the previous UK literature. A range of economic forecast scenarios for forecasts to 2013 reveals the sensitivity of mortgage possessions and arrears to different economic conditions, highlighting potential risks faced by the UK and its mortgage lenders. A comprehensive review of data on arrears and possessions completes the paper
Inflation dynamics and trade openness by Janine Aron( Book )

7 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 12 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Evolving openness to trade is hard to measure, despite its relevance to models of growth, inflation and exchange rates. Our innovative technique measures trade openness encompassing both observable trade policy (tariffs and surcharges) and unobservable trade policy (quotas and other nontariff barriers), capturing the latter by a smooth non-linear stochastic trend in a model for the share of manufactured imports in home demand for manufactured goods, controlling for the business cycle and exchange rate. The evidence for South Africa suggests that increased openness has significantly reduced the mean inflation rate and has reduced the exchange rate pass-through into wholesale prices
Was there a British house price bubble? : evidence from a regional panel by Gavin Cameron( Book )

6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found
Review of monetary policy in South Africa: 1994-2004 by Janine Aron( Book )

5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Some issues in modeling and forecasting inflation in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )

10 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the speed at which interest rates should fall, damaging growth. Our forecasting models for the new measure of producer price inflation suggest methodological lessons, and build in conflicting pressures on SA inflation from exchange rate depreciation, terms of trade shocks, collapsing oil, food and other commodity prices, and other shocks. Our US and SA forecasting models for consumer price inflation underline the methodological points, and suggest the usefulness of thinking about sectoral trends. Finally, we apply the sectoral approach to understanding the monetary policy implications of introducing a new CPI measure in SA that uses imputed rents rather than interest rates to capture housing costs
moreShow More Titles
fewerShow Fewer Titles
Audience Level
Audience Level
  Kids General Special  
Audience level: 0.59 (from 0.51 for Economics ... to 0.89 for Modelling ...)

Economics and consumer behavior
Alternative Names
Muellbauer, J.

Muellbauer, John N.

Muellbauer, John N. J.

English (190)

Spanish (3)

The standard of living