WorldCat Identities

United States Department of Defense Director of Net Assessment

Works: 178 works in 345 publications in 2 languages and 9,405 library holdings
Genres: History 
Classifications: AS36, 330.951
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by United States
Fault lines in China's economic terrain by Charles Wolf( )

3 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 1,671 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (these terms are used synonymously), that China's economic development will encounter over the next decade? How severely will China's overall economic performance be affected if these adversities occur separately or in clusters? This book addresses these key questions. China has confronted in the past two decades five of the eight fault lines that the authors consider (unemployment, corruption, water resources, HIV/AIDS, and financial fragility), and, nonetheless, it has sustained high rates of economic growth. Therefore, in assessing the potential effects of these fault lines on China's future economic performance, the authors focus on whether, why, and by how much their intensities may increase--that is, on changes, rather than on the prevailing levels of each fault line. For the other three fault lines examined, which have not previously occurred or recurred--oil price shocks, foreign-direct-investment shrinkage, and serious military conflicts--the authors consider the circumstances under which they might arise and their resulting economic effects. For each of the eight fault lines, the authors estimate a "bottom-line" in terms of expected effects on China's annual growth rate over the next decade, drawing on a variety of methods, models, and judgments to make these estimates. The authors suggest that the probability that none of these individual setbacks will occur is low, while the probability that all will occur is still lower. Because of interdependencies among the fault lines, it is highly likely that several separate adversities will cluster if any one of them occurs. For examples: an internal financial crisis would have serious negative effects on the relative attractiveness of foreign investment in China, contributing to shrinkage of foreign direct investment; epidemic disease would intensify water pollution problems and would discourage foreign investment
The Politburo's management of its America problem by Harry Gelman( Book )

10 editions published in 1981 in English and held by 235 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Draws on the record of Soviet leadership behavior in many areas over the last decade to analyze Soviet assumptions about the relationship with the United States. In most cases the Politburo assumes its interests are incompatible with those of the United States and believes it cannot improve or even defend its geopolitical position unless the American position is further weakened. The Politburo expects lasting struggle with its central antagonist whatever the momentary temperature of the bilateral relationship. It sees itself as defending recent net gains over the United States in the "correlation of forces," which the United States is now trying to undo. Present Soviet policy continues a trend of expanding Soviet influence at U.S. expense since the late 1960s not interrupted by the detente. The Politburo is determined to isolate its external ambitions from the effects of serious Soviet and Soviet Bloc internal difficulties
Theater analysis and modeling in an era of uncertainty : the present and future of warfare by Bruce W Bennett( Book )

3 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 170 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Within the U.S. defense community, there is no agreed-upon perception of how warfare is evolving. This report presents the results of war gaming and analysis on the future of warfare. It structures its findings around four issues: (1) warfare will be dominated by uncertainty and variability; (2) adversaries will seek new patterns of warfare to effectively oppose the United States; (3) asymmetrical battles will characterize war; and (4) weapons of mass destruction cast a shadow over almost all future contingencies. It proposes that analysis and modeling must evolve to: (1) reflect the significant differences in the warfare environment that will exist between theaters; (2) focus on strategic and operational events, variations, and uncertainties; (3) adopt a "counter-capabilities" approach to defining military threats; (4) adopt a new approach of developing simple but more comprehensive models; (5) address issues associated with the regional shadow of weapons of mass destruction; and (6) develop new procedures for presenting the uncertainties of analyses to decisionmakers
Sino-Soviet conflict in the 1970s : its evolution and implications for the strategic triangle by Kenneth Lieberthal( Book )

4 editions published in 1978 in English and held by 167 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Analyzes the evolution of Sino-Soviet relations since the Cultural Revolution and explains China's policies in terms of political struggles which racked Peking during the 1970s. Key questions are explored: What bilateral strategies have the Soviet Union and China adopted to deal with each other since 1969? How has the Moscow-Peking feud affected dealings with other states? How have Sino-Soviet relations intertwined with domestic politics in China? What changes in relations are likely in coming years? What are the implications of these factors for U.S. policy toward Sino-Soviet affairs? The analysis concludes that American interests are best served by a Sino-Soviet relationship poised between rapprochement and war. The author argues that the dynamics of the relationship will very likely produce such an outcome. As well, the United States should pursue bilateral relationships with Moscow and Peking so as to maximize American interests without trying to affect their interactions with each other
The economic potential of the Arab countries : prepared for Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense by Arthur Smithies( Book )

5 editions published in 1978 in English and held by 164 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Projects and compares the domestic economic development of seven Arab countries to 1985 on alternative assumptions of 2 and 5 percent increases in oil export revenues. All seven countries should grow rapidly if the oil-rich subsidize the oil-poor, but not as rapidly as they hope. Relative disparities will remain and occasionally increase. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will carry the military expenditure burden. Foreign asset accumulation will continue, but will decline, and may eventually disappear. Saudi Arabia will eventually have to modify its development plans and reduce construction and imported labor. Kuwait should grow at a modest rate and have no foreign exchange problems. Iraq is an enigma, so estimates are highly speculative. Libya's proceeds are committed to outpayments. Its prospects depend on its ability to increase production, to economize, and to renegotiate loans. Egypt's situation depends heavily on peace. Syria's growth rate should continue at its present pace especially if it can develop its oil industry. Jordan will be limited by inflation and labor shortages
Inter-Arab conflict contingencies and the gap between the Arab rich and poor : a report by Malcolm H Kerr( Book )

7 editions published between 1978 and 1979 in English and held by 157 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Documents a portion of RAND work on the military, political, and economic balance in the Middle East. The report considers how income and wealth disparities among Arab countries in the mid-1980s might affect the occurrence and course of any military conflicts. The range of possible conflicts being wide, the report examines only a limited set of cases. It concludes that general demands by the poor for federation with the rich are much less likely than bilateral projects of union not necessarily motivated by economic need. Because some of these unions could lead to inter-Arab military conflict, and because the contingencies are complex and fraught with uncertainties, the United States should proceed cautiously with any policy interventions. The report considers possible U.S. actions with respect to general policy considerations, U.S. force planning and deployment, and policies on security assistance and economic assistance. (See also R-2250.) 27 pp
JICM 1.0 summary by Bruce W Bennett( Book )

2 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 151 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report documents the Joint Contingency Model (JICM), a global war gaming and analysis system that focuses on conflict from major regional contingencies through strategic warfare. The JICM is an outgrowth of the former RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS), engineered explicitly to address post-Cold War conflict issues. The JICM has been developed to support balance assessment, contingency analysis, and military training. It handles issues such as strategic mobility, ground combat maneuver and fires (including systems like ATACMS and future technological advances), the activities involved in achieving air or sea superiority, the ability to apply naval and aircraft fires against infrastructure targets or military forces in the field, and supplies and support of military forces. JICM is unique in its attempt to address qualitative factors such as unit cohesion and specialization, training, and national force effectiveness. It also deals with discontinuities in warfare such a breakthroughs and the failure of assaults. It is a global system because it includes, as part of its release, order of battle data for most major countries worldwide, relieving JICM users of the burden of having to develop such information. It also includes base cases covering conflicts in the Persian Gulf and Korea. Thus, the JICM comes as a ready-to-use package, though users will also find it easy to develop new theaters for analysis in the JICM
The costs of the Soviet empire by Rand Corporation( Book )

9 editions published between 1983 and 1986 in English and held by 149 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for estimating all of the economic costs incurred by the Soviet Union in acquiring, maintaining, and expanding its empire. The bulk of the study is devoted to estimating the total and component costs of the Soviet empire (CSE) for the period from 1971 through 1980. The principal components include implicit trade subsidies; export credits; military aid deliveries; economic aid deliveries; incremental costs of Soviet military operations in Afghanistan; and costs of Soviet covert and related activities that can be reasonably imputed to the empire, rather than to maintenance of the Soviet system at home. These costs are expressed in current and constant dollars and rubles, and scaled in relation to Soviet GNP and military spending. After considering total costs and their changes over the 1970s, the cost of each component is examined separately. Finally, the question of whether CSE will be higher or lower in the 1980s than in the 1970s is considered, as well as several policy issues relating to the burden imposed by CSE on the Soviet economy, the relative size of comparable U.S. costs, and the desirability and feasibility of U.S. policies for raising CSE
The new map graphics in RSAS 5.0 by Bruce W Bennett( Book )

2 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 146 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) is a global warfare analysis system developed over the last decade for the Director of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. This document reports on the new map graphics package for the RSAS, which we call RSAS Map. RSAS Map allows the user to examine the location and status of ground, air, and naval forces on a map. The user may click on one of the ground unit, airfield, or ship symbols and is given a more detailed display; for airfields, this includes their location, facilities, and air units assigned. RSAS Map also allows the user to monitor and determine the status of theater battles, showing where commands are joined in battle with a large green star burst. When air support and other supporting fires are provided to a command, a smaller, yellow star burst is shown next to the command symbol and name. The commands may be selected to see a listing of all of the units associated with the command, by mission, with further detail available at the unit level. The star bursts may be selected to get a summary of the battle or the fire support provided
The RAND-ABEL programming language : reference manual by Rand Corporation( Book )

4 editions published between 1985 and 1988 in English and held by 141 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This Note describes the RAND-ABEL programming language, which was designed to be suitable for (1) large rule-based systems, (2) war gaming and multiscenario sensitivity analysis, and (3) use by any of several governmental gaming and analysis organizations. It is designed to be readable by analysts and other subject matter specialists without much preparation. The Note documents the RAND-ABEL language as it existed in March 1988. RAND-ABEL can be ported to any computer that has a C compiler. It is very fast in execution time compared with other languages of similar readability. The RAND-ABEL language provides a number of unique capabilities. For example, it supports tables within the source code, for use as decision tables or to govern an iterative execution, and it is a strongly typed language, permitting certain types of errors in complex programs to be uncovered early."--Rand Abstracts
Ground combat in the JICM by Barry Wilson( Book )

2 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 141 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Joint Integrated Contingency Model (JICM) is a very large simulation system that encompasses the strategic and operational levels of land, air, and naval warfare with a global set of models and databases. This document is an annotated briefing adapted from a class on the use of the ground combat portion of the JICM. It is an overview of the terrain, forces, and combat processes; the orders that manage combat; the parameters that set combat rates; and the displays that show what is occurring. It assumes that the reader is familiar with the operation of the JICM system software and the orders necessary to move ground forces to the theater of combat. Part of the JICM, the Integrated Theater Model (ITM), integrates the best features of the two previous JICM theater combat models, the main theater model (CAMPAIGN-MT) and the alternate theater model (CAMPAIGN-ALT). It retains the CAMPAIGN-ALT representation of theater geography as a flexible network of important places and the links between those places, and uses the interactive orders and displays interface of CAMPAIGN-MT. The first section of this document covers the network representation of the theater. The second section discusses ground units and the commands that organize them for combat on the network. The third section discusses ground combat, describing how forces come into contact, the attrition process, and the movement resulting from combat. The fourth section addresses the employment of attack helicopters and long-range artillery (such as ATACMS). The fifth and last section describes how units are managed within a command, how logistics are delivered, and how defenses are built. The appendices provide details on all the parameters affecting the ground portions of the model
The future U.S. military presence in Europe : forces and requirements for the post-Cold War era by Richard L Kugler( Book )

3 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 140 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Over the next few years, the United States will be significantly reducing its military forces in Europe from their late-1980s strength of about 300,000 troops. This report considers how far this drawdown should go and how many troops should be left behind, focusing on the post-1995 period. The author develops four options for sizing the future U.S. presence, each representing a distinct choice in terms of policy, strategy, and capability: Forward Presence, Dual-Based Presence, Limited Presence, and Symbolic Presence. The author finds that a strong case can be made for a posture of forward presence, which alone meets the requirements flowing from all U.S. goals while maintaining flexibility for the future. Militarily, this option provides an operationally coherent force that can conduct major independent combat missions in Europe on short notice. Also, this posture provides a wide range of diverse capabilities for meeting peacetime needs, while fulfilling the broad spectrum of crisis and wartime requirements--small and large--that might arise on a time-urgent basis. Politically, this posture is attractive because it projects a weighty U.S. military presence onto the European continent, thereby reminding all nations that the United States is a European power with vital interests there. This posture would also help maintain NATO's unity under U.S. leadership, reassure allies, and credibly warn potential adversaries. It would contribute to maintaining a military balance of power and encouraging a cooperative security architecture in Europe. Finally, it would help foster the kind of geostrategic stability that encourages progress toward a peaceful and united continent in close partnership with the United States
Contingency plans for war in Western Europe, 1920-1940 by Mark Jacobsen( Book )

4 editions published in 1985 in English and held by 135 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In an attempt to determine the effects of war planning on the behavior of countries in crises and wars, this report analyzes the national-level planning that preceded and shaped the German invasion of the Low Countries and northern France in 1940. As a study of war planning in the 1930s by France, Britain, Belgium, and Germany, it sheds considerable light on the way in which political, financial, and manpower constraints guide the military planning process: Threat assessment played a comparatively minor part in planning. Instead, available resources were the single most important determinant of plans. The situation of a totalitarian nation bent on changing the European status quo opposed by a coalition of democracies offers obvious analogies with present-day NATO. The authors discuss the similarities and differences in the historical and current situations, and draw three types of parallels: conceptual parallels, planning process comparisons, and direct similarities
Comparisons and implications of alternative views of the Soviet economy by Mark Myron Hopkins( Book )

4 editions published between 1983 and 1984 in English and held by 127 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This report uses the Hopkins-Kennedy optimal control model of the Soviet Union to explore the implications of and make comparisons between three "worlds" (views) that hold differing assumptions concerning the nature of the Soviet economy. These are the "Birman world," the "CIA world," and the "Rosefielde-Lee world." A secondary object is to investigate a large number of scenarios concerning foreign trade so as to improve understanding of this important aspect of the Soviet economy."--Rand abstracts
The tradeoff between consumption and military expenditures for the Soviet Union during the 1980s by Mark Myron Hopkins( Book )

4 editions published in 1982 in English and held by 123 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This study develops a relatively new approach to the modeling of the Soviet economy that uses optimal control theory. The resulting Hopkins-Kennedy optimal control model is used to address the primary research question of the study: What will be the tradeoff between Soviet consumption and defense spending during the 1980s? Section II is devoted to the model. Its strength is indicated by a number of historical scenarios in Sec. III in which the model makes predictions which can be checked against what actually occurred. Section IV examines the implications of an alternative view of Soviet economic history, put forth by Rosefielde and Lee. Section V examines demographic change, in terms of both growth of the labor force and its ethnic composition. The impact of differing rates of productivity growth and a scenario in which poor weather continues into the next decade are studied in Sec. VI. Section VII describes the impact of the increasing cost of energy. Foreign trade, which is likely to play a central role in the Soviet economy in the next decade, is examined in detail in Sec. VIII. Section IX compares a best case and a worse case scenario
U.S. leadership perceptions of the Soviet problem since 1945 by John Van Oudenaren( Book )

6 editions published between 1981 and 1982 in English and held by 122 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

For 35 years the Soviet Union has presented American political leaders with their most difficult foreign policy and defense problems. Throughout this period the Soviet Union, like other countries, has undergone constant change. Although this change has worked to reshape the perceptions of American leaders, it has not ended an ongoing debate in the United States about the "essential character" of the Soviet system and appropriate U.S. policies for dealing with the USSR. There remains no consensus on a long-term American strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union. In an effort to probe the roots of the ongoing dissension in the U.S. foreign policy community regarding Soviet policy, this report analyzes the three early postwar alternatives {u2014} termination by accommodation, termination by victory, and long-term management {u2014} and shows how the early debates on these alternatives influenced subsequent American policy thinking. In addition, the report suggests some of the underlying reasons why a termination approach appealed to those who were confronted for the first time with the Soviet problem, and why, despite the standoff of the past 35 years, termination continues to exert a residual appeal for both elites and the general public
Korean and U.S. forces and responsibilities in the changing Asian security environment : executive summary( Book )

3 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 117 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report summarizes a joint study by RAND and the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) on U.S.-Korean force planning and the sharing of roles and burdens in the 1990s. It considers possible changes in the forces and burdens of the allies in view of the changing strategic environment, altered economic and technological capabilities, and political constraints, while maintaining a durable alliance. The study identifies alternative security environments and conflict contingencies and draws from them policy guidelines for combined military planning. It then assesses the relative changes in U.S. and Korean economic and technological capabilities as well as the resource constraints faced by the allies. It focuses on alternative Korean and U.S. force structures, roles, command relationships, and cost implications. Among other things, the authors conclude that (1) the United States and South Korea should reaffirm the mutual importance of their alliance, (2) the two allies should formally declare that they intend South Korea to be principally responsible for its own defense by the year 2000, and (3) this intention should be gradually implemented consistent with South Korea's force improvement and progress in inter-Korean relations
A new methodology for modeling national command level decisionmaking in war games and simulations by Paul K Davis( Book )

4 editions published in 1986 in English and held by 117 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report describes and illustrates a methodology for modeling National Command Level (NCL) decisionmaking in large-scale crisis and conflict involving both superpowers--a methodology that progresses from abstract concepts about superpower objectives and strategy through the step-by-step procedures for building an operational computer program. Its two key components are defining an 'image' of Soviet or U.S. decisionmaking, and moving from that imprecise image to a precise and coherent computer program. The report's sections outline the modeling approach; review the most important concepts underlying the approach: describe the systematic definition of alternative coherent images of the Soviet or U.S. NCL; describe building an operational computer program that is both transparent and able to explain its own decisions; and discuss initial experiences using prototype versions of the computer models. (Author)
The changing balance : South and North Korean capabilities for long-term military competition( Book )

3 editions published in 1985 in English and held by 117 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report has two principal purposes: to analyze South Korea's economic, technological, and political-social capabilities for long-term competition with North Korea, and to evaluate the relative capabilities of the two sides. Using a variety of methods and approaches, including formal quantitative models and qualitative essays, the authors reach the following primary conclusions: (1) South Korea has substantial economic and technological advantages over North Korea; (2) the South's economic preponderance over the North is growing rapidly; (3) South Korea's economic and technological development gives it advantages in its long-term military competition with the North; (4) South Korea can increase its military self-reliance; (5) South Korea's advantages over North Korea should increase substantially in the next decade; and (6) South Korea apparently provides a larger volume of resources for defense purposes, yet has a smaller military capability than does the North
Reality and belief in military affairs : a first draft (June 1977) : a report by Herbert Goldhamer( Book )

5 editions published in 1979 in English and held by 117 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Three unfinished chapters of a book the author was writing at the time of his death in 1977. The discrepancies between reality and belief in military affairs which have had decisive consequences on events throughout man's recorded history--although often observed and commented upon by military analysts and historians--are here for the first time made the focus of inquiry. Drawing on past and present writings of East and West to illustrate his points, the author discusses the factors and circumstances that influence the assessment process, and the role of manipulation and deception in shaping images of the enemy and the self in military affairs. Primary attention is given to the peacetime or pre-war cases that illuminate the relation between military realities and military beliefs
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Fault lines in China's economic terrain
Ground combat in the JICM
Alternative Names

controlled identityUnited States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense

controlled identityUnited States. Office of the Secretary of Defense for Net Assessment

United States. Department of Defense. Director, Net Assessment

United States. Department of Defense. Office of Net Assessment

United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense. Director of Net Assessment

United States. Dept. of Defence. Office of the Secretary of Defence. Director of Net Assessment

United States. Dept. of Defense. Director of Net Assessment