International Monetary Fund Western Hemisphere Dept
Most widely held works by International Monetary Fund
The macroeconomy of Central America ( Book )
4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 146 libraries worldwide
Effects of globalization on labor's share in national income by Anastasia Guscina ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 99 libraries worldwide
Is Brazil different? risk, dollarization, and interest rates in emerging markets by Edmar Lisboa Bacha ( Book )
4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 95 libraries worldwide
We investigate the role of financial dollarization in the determination of real interest rates in emerging economies. In a simple analytical model, we show that a strategy of "dedollarizing" the economy, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real interest rates. We confirm this prediction in an empirical model, but find that the effect is small after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. Brazil provides a natural case study given its low degree of financial dollarization and very high real interest rates. The estimated model is unable to explain the high interest rate levels in the aftermath of Brazil's 1994 inflation stabilization. However, since the adoption in 1999 of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, Brazil's real interest rates are gradually converging to the model's predicted values. The estimation also shows that further drops in Brazil's real interest rates could be achieved more effectively through improvements in fundamentals that lead to investment-grade status rather than through financial dollarization.
Brazil's long-term growth performance trying to explain the puzzle by Ricardo Adrogué ( Book )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 93 libraries worldwide
This paper assesses Brazil's growth performance from a long-term perspective, using cross-country and panel estimation techniques, building on the vast empirical literature on growth. The empirical evidence presented in this paper confirms that macroeconomic stability and several reforms have helped raise per capita growth in Brazil since the mid-1990s. The results also show that some long-standing structural weaknesses continue to weigh negatively on per capita growth. Reducing the high level of government consumption would help lower the overall consumption level in the economy and lower its intertemporal price-the real interest rate-thus helping to foster investment and growth.
Volatility and growth in Latin America an episodic approach by Ratna Sahay ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 92 libraries worldwide
Spillovers across NAFTA by A Swiston ( Book )
5 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 90 libraries worldwide
This paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the world-- the United States, Euro area, Japan, and the rest of the world-- to Canada and Mexico, and decomposing the impact of these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and financial market channels. For Canada, a one percent shock to U.S. real GDP shifts Canadian real GDP by some 3/4 of a percentage point in the same direction-- with financial spillovers more important than trade in recent decades. Thus, a large proportion of the reduction in Canadian output volatility since the 1980s can be accounted for by the 'Great Moderation' in U.S. growth. Before 1996, domestic volatility in Mexico swamped the contribution of external factors to the business cycle. After 1996, the response of Mexican GDP is 1 1/2 times the size of the U.S. shock-- "when the U.S. sneezes, Mexico catches a cold". These spillovers are transmitted through both trade and financial channels.
Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations how well does the real business cycle model fit postwar U.S. data by Jordi Galí ( Book )
4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 87 libraries worldwide
Debt dynamics and global imbalances some conventional views reconsidered by Guy Meredith ( Book )
4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 87 libraries worldwide
We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic growth rate. In addition, the adjustment takes place over an extended period without significantly raising the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios, in part because depreciation of the dollar requires continued foreign accumulation of U.S. assets just to keep their portfolio share constant.
Paraguay : addressing the stagnation and instability trap ( Book )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 80 libraries worldwide
This publication provides an overview of the analytical insights and policy challenges that a country faces while on the path to sustained growth with stability. It examines the improvements in policy implementation in Paraguay since the regional crisis of 2002, and discuss how to correct economic imbalances and institutional shortcomings in the context of an economic reform program. The results have been impressive with the Paraguayan economy experiencing the highest growth in a quarter of a century and the strongest financial system in decades.--Publisher's description.
Dominica seventh review under the three-year arrangement under the poverty reduction and growth facility and financing assurances review : staff report, press release on the Executive Board discussion ( Book )
4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 79 libraries worldwide
The global financial crisis explaining cross-country differences in the output impact ( Book )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some--weaker--evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.
Public debt and productivity the difficult quest for growth in Jamaica by Rodolphe Blavy ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 54 libraries worldwide
The paper analyzes Jamaica's experience of low growth despite consistently high investment. Cross-country analysis provides evidence of a significant and negative relationship between total public debt and productivity growth. Looking at the specific channels through which high debt affects productivity growth and the allocation of resources in Jamaica, the study finds that high public debt has been associated with macroeconomic uncertainty and an output structure that relied excessively on a few maturing sectors with limited scope for productivity growth. Furthermore, public investment has been crowded out by debt service, further adversely affecting productivity growth.
Emigration and wages in source countries evidence from Mexico by Prachi Mishra ( Book )
3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 53 libraries worldwide
Assessing banking sector soundness in a long-term framework the case of Venezuela by Rodolphe Blavy ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 53 libraries worldwide
The monetary policy regime and banking spreads in Barbados by Wendell A Samuel ( Book )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide
The paper analyzes the determinants of banking spreads in Barbados, with a view to identifying the role of the monetary policy regime in explaining high spreads. The paper finds that interest rate spreads for Barbados are higher than would be suggested by its macroeconomic performance. Banking concentration and bank-specific variables, including bank size and provisions for nonperforming loans, do not have an important role in explaining variations in bank spreads. Rather, it appears that monetary policy variables, such as reserve requirements and capital controls, are the most important determinants of spreads.
Tax incentives and investment in the Eastern Caribbean by Sebastian Sosa ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide
Tax incentives have been used extensively in the countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) to promote investment. The associated revenue losses are large, and benefits in terms of new investment have been limited, raising doubts about the cost effectiveness of the tax incentive schemes. This paper examines the effects of incentives using the marginal effective tax rate approach (METR), adapting this methodology to the case of a small open economy where the marginal investor is a nonresident. The results show that METRs are high in the region; that there is a large dispersion in the size of METRs across financing source; and that METRs on investment are larger than the overall distortion on capital, with a substantial subsidy to domestic saving. In the presence of tax holidays-the most common incentive scheme in the region-the distortion on capital basically vanishes.
Determinants of Venezuela's equilibrium real exchange rate by Juan Zalduendo ( Book )
3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide
The Venezuelan Bolivar is pegged to the U.S. dollar and supported by foreign exchange restrictions. To assess the appropriateness of the peg during the current period of high oil export earnings and the likely consequences of a liberalization, this paper attempts to disentangle the effects of oil prices from other factors underlying the equilibrium real exchange rate, and examines the role of foreign exchange controls by extending the application of a vector error correction (VEC) model to parallel market exchange rates. Several findings are worth noting. First, oil prices have indeed played a significant role in determining a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate path. Second, oil prices are not the only important determinant of the real effective exchange rate: declining productivity is also a key factor. Third, appreciation pressures are rising. Finally, the speed of convergence of a VEC model using parallel rather than official rates is higher, suggesting that the government has been able to maintain sharp deviations between the official and equilibrium rates because of Venezuela's oil dependency and the concentration of oil income in government hands.
Is the Canadian housing market overvalued? a post-crisis assessment by Evridiki Tsounta ( Book )
3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide
Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium.
How might a disorderly resolution of global imbalances affect global wealth by Francis E Warnock ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 43 libraries worldwide
From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista foreign exchange liquidity easing in Brazil in response to the global shock of 2008-09 by Mark R Stone ( Book )
3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 43 libraries worldwide
The provision of foreign exchange liquidity by emerging market central banks during the global shock of 2008-09 departs from the domestic liquidity lender of last resort role described by Bagehot in his classic "Lombard Street". This paper documents and analyzes the foreign exchange liquidity providing measures of the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) in response to varied market stresses. These measures appear to have reduced the relative onshore cost of dollar liquidity on impact and seemed to stabilize market expectations of exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that foreign exchange liquidity easing operations may become a standard central bank tool.
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IMF. Western Hemisphere Department.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department.
Western Hemisphere Department.