WorldCat Identities

Davis, Paul K. 1943-

Works: 111 works in 512 publications in 1 language and 22,505 library holdings
Genres: Case studies  History 
Roles: Author, Editor
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by Paul K Davis
Deterrence & influence in counterterrorism : a component in the war on al Qaeda by Paul K Davis( Book )

13 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 280 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Historical experience has shown that successful strategies to combat terrorism that is spawned by serious, deep-rooted problems have involved first crushing the current threat and then bringing about changes to make terrorism's reemergence less likely. While deterrence of terrorism may at first glance seem to be an unrealistic goal, concepts such as co-optation and inducement cannot be expected to be effective for dealing with terrorists who have the unshakable commitment of an Osama bin Laden, it may be possible to influence some members of terrorist groups. Such groups are not simply single entities; rather, they are systems, with diverse elements, many of which could be amenable to influence. Thus, to sustain its counterterrorism efforts for the long term, the United States must develop a multifaceted strategy that includes attempting to influence those elements of terrorist systems that may be deterrable, such as state supporters or wealthy financiers living the good life while supporting terrorists in the shadows. The U.S. strategy should comprise not only military attacks, but also political warfare; placing at risk the things that terrorists hold dear; a credible threat of force against any state or group that supports the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction for terrorist uses; and maintaining cooperation with other nations that are also engaged in the war on terror. At the same time, the strategy must preserve core American values, including discriminate use of force and maintaining due process in the provision of speedy justice
New challenges for defense planning : rethinking how much is enough( Book )

6 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 251 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This book is a collection of essays by senior defense analysts at RAND, all of whom have been deeply involved in post-Cold War defense planning studies for the Department of Defense. The essays cover a wide spectrum of issues, including alternative strategies and structures for defense planning, conventional deterrence of Third World opponents, modernizing weapon systems and force structures, and planning under uncertainty (a major theme of the book as a whole). Some of the essays are sympathetic to current U.S. methods and policies, whereas others are critical, arguing that radical changes are needed. Taken as a whole, the book provides a provocative cross section of work by experts who understand both the theoretical issues and the practical considerations that the Department of Defense must address. The book will be of interest to policymakers, students of defense planning, and other readers seeking to understand the challenges and choices confronting defense planners as we approach the end of the century
Challenges in virtual collaboration : videoconferencing, audioconferencing, and computer-mediated communications by Lynne Wainfan( Book )

12 editions published between 2004 and 2005 in English and held by 197 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report summarizes the research literature on virtual collaboration, focusing on interactive virtual collaborations in real or near-real time. In particular, it reviews how the processes and outcomes of virtual collaborations are affected by the communication medium (videoconferencing, audioconferencing, or computer-mediated conferencing). It then discusses how problems in such collaboration can be mitigated and opportunities realized. Problems include increased "us vs. them" divisions and misunderstandings, as well as shifts toward risky options. Opportunities include broadening the range of views and options, as well as broadening the range of available experts. The report suggests a strategy for choosing the most effective medium, including face-to-face communication and hybrid systems, as a function of task and context (e.g., convergence on a decision orbrainstorming)
Social science for counterterrorism : putting the pieces together( Book )

8 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 191 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This monograph surveys and integrates scholarly social-science literature relevant to counterterrorism. It draws from numerous disciplines and then uses high-level conceptual models to pull the pieces together regarding root causes, individual radicalization, public support, and the ways in which terrorism fades. It identifies points of agreement and disagreement and discusses the consequences of different contexts and perspectives
Defense planning for the post-Cold War era : giving meaning to flexibility, adaptiveness, and robustness of capability by Paul K Davis( Book )

9 editions published between 1992 and 1993 in English and Undetermined and held by 188 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This study describes a new approach to defense planning that would better integrate strategic, programmatic, and operations planning. Its thesis is that planning should focus on assuring that the U.S. has the capability to react quickly and effectively to a wide range of contingencies that do not match closely with any of the standard scenarios. There should be much less emphasis on standard scenarios and finely tuned, highly coordinated operations planning, than on having the capability in crisis to quickly develop and execute plans appropriate to the political-military needs of that crisis. This can be done now for small-scale crises, but it is clear from the Gulf War that the U.S. was in no way capable of doing so in the kind of large-scale conflict that would have occurred if Saddam Hussein had continued his invasion into Saudi Arabia. The study recommends major changes that would de-emphasize the "deliberate planning system," elevate the importance of "crisis-action planning," and use frequent, rigorous exercises to test and refine the ability to develop and execute in the development and creation of appropriate plans in crisis. The approach would depend on building-block methods that are quite comfortable to many American military officers, and which, indeed, can already be seen at work at lower levels of organization. The approach would require drastic changes in computer support. The study also recommends that strategic and programmatic planning be changed in ways that would be more consistent with planning under uncertainty and encouraging flexibility and adaptiveness rather than optimization for well-defined scenarios. With this in mind, the study recommends new methods of analysis that are will suited to planning under uncertainty
Measuring interdiction capabilities in the presence of anti-access strategies : exploratory analysis to inform adaptive strategy for the Persian Gulf by Paul K Davis( Book )

8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 164 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an early halt or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The book documents a specialized model used for mission system analysis, which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness. The United States should expect threatened or actual use of mass-casualty weapons against its forces and regional allies and enemy attempts to act quickly and with short warning. On the other hand, the threat's size and quality may be less than usually assumed. On the military side, the book characterizes parametrically the conditions for a successful early halt, thereby identifying high-priority strategic hedges, capability developments, and potential adaptations. The book considers joint forces for interdiction and synergy with rapidly employable ground forces. On the political side, the book notes the premium on continued forward basing, aggressive use of ambiguous warning, and long-range bombers. Continued enforcement of red-line constructs could greatly improve the likelihood of decisive response to ambiguous warning. Countering anti-access strategies would be enhanced by negotiating use of more distant bases and logistic preparation. It will be increasingly unwise to assume use of forward bases, even if technical analysis suggests that the bases could operate under attacks with mass-casualty weapons
Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems by Paul K Davis( Book )

12 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 160 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust
Analytic architecture for capabilities-based planning, mission-system analysis, and transformation by Paul K Davis( Book )

7 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 160 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Capabilities-based planning has become a central theme of defense planning. It is defined in broad terms in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, but opinions differ about its details and how to implement it. This book reviews and extends ideas developed over the last decade regarding capabilities-based planning. It puts capabilities-based planning in the larger context of defense activities generally, sketches an analytic architecture for carrying it out, and offers recommendations about how to proceed, including a suggested architecture that emphasizes mission-level work and such concepts as mission-system analysis, exploratory analysis, and hierarchical portfolio methods for integration and tradeoffs in an economical framework. Capabilities-based planning is related to the objective of transforming U.S. forces to deal effectively with the changes taking place in military affairs. The book also emphasizes that the new paradigm of capabilities-based planning is particularly apt given the objective of transforming U.S. forces to deal effectively with the changes taking place in military affairs
Resource allocation for the new defense strategy : the DynaRank decision-support system by R. J Hillestad( Book )

5 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 151 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

DynaRank is a Microsoft Excel based program that allows detailed high-level evaluation of policy options. This report describes the development of DynaRank through a series of RAND policy studies, culminating in its application to the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). The authors provide an overview of the process and why it was developed, describing its application to a domestic transportation project and a long-range planning study for the Air Force. They then provide detail about its application late in the QDR process and describe how it assisted them in reaching certain conclusions. The appendixes provide a tutorial, instructing a new user how to set up and apply DynaRank; show a step-by-step example of its use; and list DynaRank's functions
Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein by Paul K Davis( Book )

5 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 151 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This study applies an experimental interdisciplinary methodology for understanding the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict and for using that understanding to develop well-hedged and adaptive deterrent strategies. It develops alternative models of Saddam Hussein's reasoning from February 1990 to February 1991, using only information available at that time. The report then explains Saddam's behavior retrospectively and argues that having developed and worked with the alternative models during the crisis could have materially improved the formulation of U.S. strategy. The authors use the models to analyze such speculations as whether Saddam could have been deterred, and to suggest more general conclusions about appropriate strategies of deterrence in future crises. They recommend major changes in the processes by which the United States prepares for contingencies in peacetime, and deliberates about strategy as a crisis develops, including (1) for each contingency studied, the intelligence community should be required to develop and report on alternative models of the opponent, treating at least two or three seriously and avoiding convergence on a "best estimate"; and (2) despite pressures to avoid overcommitment, the United States should in peacetime take measures to protect strategically important buffers rather than allow future aggressors to underestimate their significance
Motivated metamodels : synthesis of cause-effect reasoning and statistical metamodeling by Paul K Davis( Book )

8 editions published between 2002 and 2003 in English and held by 148 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A metamodel is a relatively simple model that approximates the behavior of one that is more complex. A common and superficially attractive way to develop a metamodel is to generate large-model data and use off-the-shelf statistical methods without attempting to understand the model's internal workings. This monograph describes research illuminating why it can be important to improve the quality of such metamodels by using even modest phenomenological knowledge to help structure them. These "motivated metamodels" may convey an understandable, if only approximate, story-i.e., an explanation. Further, even if they provide little or no improvements to average goodness of fit, motivated metamodels can be much better for supporting decisions. For example, if the modeled system could fail if any of several critical components fail, then motivated models can build in the requisite nonlinearity, whereas naive metamodels are misleading. Naïve metamodeling may also be misleading about the relative "importance" of inputs, thereby skewing resource-allocation decisions. Motivated metamodels can greatly mitigate such problems. The work contributes to the emerging understanding of multiresolution, multiperspective modeling (MRMPM), as well as providing an interdisciplinary view of how to combine virtues of statistical methodology with virtues of more theory-based work
Effects-based operations : a grand challenge for the analytical community by Paul K Davis( Book )

5 editions published between 2001 and 2002 in English and held by 146 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Effects-based operations (EBO) are defined for this monograph as operations conceived and planned in a systems framework that considers the full range of direct, indirect, and cascading effects--effects that may, with different degrees of probability, be achieved by the application of military, diplomatic, psychological, and economic instruments. The monograph suggests principles for sharpening discussions of EBO, for increasing the rigor of those discussions, and for building the key ideas of EBO into analysis for defense planning, experimentation, and operations planning. It then illustrates the principles with explicit models. Finally, it sketches a possible research program to enrich the base for studying and practicing EBO
Experiments in multiresolution modeling (MRM) by Paul K Davis( Book )

6 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 144 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This study describes the motivation for multiresolution modeling (MRM) within a single model or a family of models. After introducing a new measure of consistency for models of different resolution, the study discusses in some depth obstacles to and methods for multiresolution modeling (also called variable-resolution modeling), illustrating issues with a detailed military example involving precision fires. The study highlights the value of visual design, array formalism, formal mathematics to identify natural aggregation fragments, integrated hierarchical variable resolution (IHVR) yielding "trees" of variables, estimation theory, alternative aggregate representations called out in a user interface, "stretcher variables," and computational methods to identify natural phase transitions and facilitate calibrations. The study recommends that major Department of Defense models such as JWARS emphasize MRM and related research on family-of-models issues. It notes that MRM is not an all-or-nothing matter and that incorporating even some multiresolution features can be quite useful. Finally, the study notes that MRM is a frontier issue and suggests directions for further research
Improving the composability of Department of Defense models and simulations by Paul K Davis( Book )

6 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and held by 142 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This monograph investigates actions that could be taken by the Department of Defense (DoD) to improve the composability of its future models and simulations. In modeling and simulation, composability is the capability to select and assemble components in various combinations to satisfy specific user requirements meaningfully. Factors that determine what can be composed and the expense and risk of composing various components are examined, and many suggestions are presented on both policies and investments that would enhance prospects for composability. It is concluded that DoD must recognize that models are different from general software components and that model composability needs to be based not simply on software practice, but on the emerging science of modeling and simulation. DoD should also develop and communicate a set of realistic images and expectations, back away from excessive promises, and approach improvement measures as a "system problem" involving actions and investments in multiple areas ranging from science and technology to education and training
Dilemmas of intervention : social science for stabilization and reconstruction( Book )

13 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 140 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Governments intervening in post-conflict states find themselves beset with numerous challenges and profound dilemmas: It is often unclear how best to proceed because measures that may improve conditions in one respect may undermine them in another. This volume reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction (S & R), with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level. The authors assert that S & R success depends on success in each of four component domains⁰́₄political, social, security, and economic; the authors discuss each domain separately but emphasize their interactions and the idea that the failure of any component can doom S & R as a whole. The authors also focus on a number of dilemmas that intervenors in post-conflict states face⁰́₄such as between short- and long-term goals and whether to work through or around the state⁰́₉s central government⁰́₄and suggest how these dilemmas can be confronted depending on context
Portfolio-analysis methods for assessing capability options by Paul K Davis( Book )

12 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 126 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research
Finding candidate options for investment : from building blocks to composite options and preliminary screening( Book )

9 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 119 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report describes a methodology and prototype tool, the Building Blocks to Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying good candidate options to use in investment analysis
Understanding and influencing public support for insurgency and terrorism by Paul K Davis( Book )

10 editions published in 2012 in English and Undetermined and held by 111 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Building on earlier RAND research that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to understanding terrorism and counterterrorism, this volume focuses on public support for both insurgency and terrorism and incorporates insights stimulated by social movement theory. The authors examine four case studies: al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors first developed a model, based on previous work, identifying the factors that influence public support for insurgency and terrorism and how these factors relate to each other. They then drew on extensive primary- and secondary-source material from each of the four case studies to evaluate and refine the model. Comparing the four case studies, the authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases and how their importance varied in each case. Finally, they offer a model of "persuasive communications" that connects the study's research to issues of strategy and policy."--Page 4 of cover
A computational model of public support for insurgency and terrorism : a prototype for more-general social-science modeling by Paul K Davis( Book )

4 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called “factor trees” to identify the factors that contribute to various aspects of terrorism or insurgency at a slice in time and how the factors relate to each other qualitatively. This report goes beyond the conceptual and qualitative by specifying a prototype uncertainty-sensitive computational model for one of the factor trees from the earlier research, one that describes public support for terrorism and insurgency. The authors first detail their approach to designing such a model, emphasizing the challenges they encountered in assigning mathematical meaning to the factor tree's numerous factors and subfactors, identifying suitable “building block” combining algorithms, and the uncertainty in their values and the relationships among them. They then describe how they implemented the model in a high-level visual-programming environment, show how the model can be used for exploratory analysis under uncertainty, and discuss their initial experience with it. Methodologically, the work illustrates a new approach to causal, uncertainty-and-context-sensitive, social-science modeling. It also illustrates how such models can be reviewable, reusable, and potentially composable
Using behavioral indicators to help detect potential violent acts : a review of the science base by Paul K Davis( )

1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Government organizations have put substantial effort into detecting and thwarting terrorist and insurgent attacks by observing suspicious behaviors of individuals at transportation checkpoints and elsewhere. This report reviews the scientific literature relating to observable, individual-level behavioral indicators that might -- along with other information -- help detect potential violent attacks. The report focuses on new or nontraditional technologies and methods, most of which exploit (1) data on communication patterns, (2) "pattern-of-life" data, and/or (3) data relating to body movement and physiological state. To help officials set priorities for special attention and investment, the report proposes an analytic framework for discussion and evaluation; it also urges investment in cost-effectiveness analysis and more vigorous, routine, and sustained efforts to measure real-world effectiveness of methods. One cross-cutting conclusion is that methods for behavioral observation are typically not reliable enough to stand alone; success in detection will depend on information fusion across types of behaviors and time. How to accomplish such fusion is understudied. Finally, because many aspects of using behavioral observations are highly controversial, both scientifically and because of privacy and civil-liberties concerns, the report sharpens the underlying perspectives and suggests ways to resolve some of the controversy while significantly mitigating problems that definitely exist
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Deterrence & influence in counterterrorism : a component in the war on al Qaeda
Alternative Names
Davis, Paul

Davis, Paul 1943-

Davis, Paul K.

English (157)

New challenges for defense planning : rethinking how much is enoughChallenges in virtual collaboration : videoconferencing, audioconferencing, and computer-mediated communicationsSocial science for counterterrorism : putting the pieces togetherDefense planning for the post-Cold War era : giving meaning to flexibility, adaptiveness, and robustness of capabilityMeasuring interdiction capabilities in the presence of anti-access strategies : exploratory analysis to inform adaptive strategy for the Persian GulfImplications of modern decision science for military decision-support systemsAnalytic architecture for capabilities-based planning, mission-system analysis, and transformationResource allocation for the new defense strategy : the DynaRank decision-support system