WorldCat Identities

Lee, Ronald Demos 1941-

Works: 88 works in 339 publications in 2 languages and 6,578 library holdings
Genres: History  Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author, Editor, Other, Contributor, Author of introduction
Classifications: HB3585, 304.60942
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works about Ronald Demos Lee
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Most widely held works by Ronald Demos Lee
Population patterns in the past by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

17 editions published between 1977 and 2013 in English and held by 578 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Population Patterns in the Past
Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

28 editions published between 1987 and 1995 in English and held by 469 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Population, food, and rural development by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

23 editions published between 1988 and 1996 in English and held by 462 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Population growth and economic development : issues and evidence by D. Gale Johnson( Book )

9 editions published in 1987 in English and held by 438 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Determinants of fertility in developing countries by National Research Council( Book )

10 editions published in 1983 in English and held by 377 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Demographic change and fiscal policy by Alan J Auerbach( Book )

20 editions published between 2000 and 2010 in English and Undetermined and held by 355 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

As public expenditures on health, education and transfer programmes increase, demographic change has a growing impact on public expenditures, and the incentives for behaviour created by public transfer programs increase as well. The essays in this volume discuss such topics as: demographic change and the outlook for Social Security and Medicare in the United States; long-term decision making under uncertainty; the effect of changing family structure on government spending; how the structure of public retirement policies has encouraged early retirement in some countries and not others; the response of local community spending to demographic change; and related topics. Contributors include many of the world's leading public finance economists and economic demographers
Population and economic change in East Asia( Book )

10 editions published between 2000 and 2003 in English and held by 338 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Population aging and the generational economy : a global perspective by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

22 editions published between 2011 and 2013 in English and Undetermined and held by 252 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Over coming decades changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. This volume examines this complex topic
Global population aging and its economic consequences by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

5 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 189 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Fertility in the United States : new patterns, new theories by National Research Council (U.S.)( Book )

9 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 113 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Econometric studies of topics in demographic history by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

10 editions published between 1971 and 1978 in English and Undetermined and held by 108 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The population history of England, 1541-1871 : a reconstruction by E. A Wrigley( Book )

14 editions published between 1981 and 2010 in English and held by 48 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This is the first paperback edition of a classic work of recent English historiography, first published in 1981. In analysing the population of a country over several centuries, the authors qualify, confirm or overturn traditional assumptions and marshal a mass of statistical material into a series of clear, lucid arguments about past patterns of demographic behaviour and their relationship to economic trends. The Population History of England presents basic demographic statistics - monthly totals of births, deaths and marriages - and uses them in conjunction with new methods of analysis to determine population size, gross production rates, expectation of life at birth, age structure and net migration totals. The results make it possible to construct a new model of the interplay of economic and demographic variables in England before and during the industrial picture of English population trends between 1541 and 1871 is a remarkable achievement and in a new, short preface, the authors consider the debate engendered by the book, the impact of which has been felt far beyond the traditional disciplinary confines of historical demography
Stochastic infinite horizon forecasts for social security and related studies by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

11 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 48 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then slowly rises to 1.2 million at the end of the century, with 95% probability bounds of 800,000 to 1.8 million at the century's end. Adding stochastic immigration makes little difference to the probability distribution of the old age dependency ratio. 2) We incorporate parameter uncertainty, stochastic trends, and uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the probability distributions of the individual input forecasts, but they make relatively little difference when embedded in the more fully stochastic Social Security projection. 3) Using a 500-year stochastic projection, we estimate an infinite horizon balance of -5.15% of payroll, compared to the -3.5% of the 2004 Trustees Report, probably reflecting different mortality projections. Our 95% probability interval bounds are -10.5 and -1.3%. Such forecasts, which reflect only "routine" uncertainty, have many problems but nonetheless seem worthwhile
Local fiscal effects of illegal immigration : report of a workshop by National Research Council Staff( Book )

9 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 36 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Demographic transition and its consequences( Book )

6 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 35 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"The chapters explore the consequences of the demographic transition--characterized by low mortality and low fertility--in modern industrial societies and emerging economies. Aside from its immediate effect on population aging, the transition has implications for family and kinship patterns, public finance, the welfare state, and intergenerational relations"--Provided by publisher
Charting the economic life cycle by Ronald Demos Lee( Book )

9 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Understanding the economic lifecycle - how it varies and why - is important in its own right, but is also critical to understanding how changes in population age structure influence many features of the macroeconomy. Economic behavior over the life cycle can be summarized by the average levels of consumption and labor earnings at each age, as shaped by biology, culture, institutions and individual choice. Here we present estimates of these in detail for the US and Taiwan, showing the roles played by public and familial transfer systems as well as asset accumulation, and present more basic profiles for selected additional countries drawing on studies from a larger project. Average economic dependency occurs when consumption exceeds labor earnings, typically in childhood and old age. A changing population age distribution alters the relative numbers of weighted consumers and producers, as summarized by the support ratio. The "demographic dividend" occurs during a sustained period of improving support ratios during the demographic transition, as can be shown using these profiles. The estimated cross-sectional age profiles of labor income have a broadly similar hump shape. However, there are striking contrasts in the timing of earnings over the life cycle. The consumption profiles reveal even more striking contrasts, with a flat age profile of total adult consumption in Taiwan and a steeply rising one in the U.S. We believe these differences reflect the extended family versus the state as the primary locus of transfers to the elderly. Profiles for private consumption are also quite variable, with Indonesia peaking early around age 25, Taiwan being essentially flat, and the US peaking late at around 55. Private expenditures on education show wide variations, with unusually high expenditures in some Asian countries. Because of possible public-private substitutions, it is questionable to assign causality to either for differences in total consumption
Notional defined contribution pension systems in a stochastic context : design and stability by Alan J Auerbach( Book )

10 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 31 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Around the world, Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) public pension programs face serious long-term fiscal problems due primarily to actual and projected population aging, and most appear unsustainable as currently structured. Some have proposed the replacement of such plans with systems of fully funded private or personal Defined Contribution (DC) accounts, but the difficulties of transition to funded systems have limited their implementation. Recently, a new variety of public pension program known as "Notional Defined Contribution" or "Non-financial Defined Contribution" (NDC) has been created, with the objectives of addressing the fiscal instability of traditional plans and mimicking the characteristics of funded DC plans while retaining PAYGO finance. Using different versions of the system recently adopted in Sweden, calibrated to US demographic and economic parameters, we evaluate the success of the NDC approach in achieving fiscal stability in a stochastic context. (In a companion paper, we will consider other aspects of the performance of NDC plans in comparison to traditional PAYGO pensions.) We find that the basic NDC scheme is effective at preventing excessive debt accumulation, but does little to prevent significant asset accumulation along many trajectories and on average. With adjustment, however, the NDC approach can be made more stable
The evolutionary theory of time preferences and intergenerational transfers by C. Y. Cyrus Chu( Book )

8 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

At each age an organism produces energy by foraging and allocates this energy among reproduction, survival, growth, and intergenerational transfers. We characterize the optimal set of allocation decisions that maximizes reproductive fitness. Time preference (the discount rate) is derived from the marginal rate of substitution between energy obtained at two different times or ages in an individual₂s life, holding reproductive fitness constant. We show that the life history may have an initial immature phase during which there is body growth but no fertility, and a later mature phase with fertility but no growth, as with humans. During the immature phase, time preference depends only on the compounding effect of body growth, much like returns on a capital investment, but not on fertility, or the intrinsic population growth rate. During the mature phase, time preference depends on the costliness of fertility, and on endogenous survival and intrinsic growth rate, and not at all on body growth. During the transition between the two phases, fertility, mortality, body growth, and intrinsic growth rate all matter. Using these results, we conclude that time preference and discount rates are likely to be U-shaped across age. We compare our results to Hansson and Stuart (1990), Rogers (1994, 1997) and Sozou and Seymour (2003). Wastage and inefficiencies aside, in a single sex model a system of intergenerational transfers yields Samuelson₂s (1958) biological interest rate equal to the population growth rate. When the rate of time preference exceeds this biological rate, inter- generational transfers will raise fitness and evolve through natural selection, partially smoothing out the age variations in time preference
Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems by Alan J Auerbach( Book )

7 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 15 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We evaluate several actual and hypothetical sustainable PAYGO pension structures, including: (1) versions of the US Social Security system with annual adjustments of taxes or benefits to maintain fiscal balance; (2) Sweden's Notional Defined Contribution system and several variants developed to improve fiscal stability; and (3) the German system, which also includes annual adjustments to maintain fiscal balance. For each system, we present descriptive measures of uncertainty in representative outcomes for a typical generation and across generations. We then estimate expected utility for generations based on simplifying assumptions and incorporate these expected utility calculations in an overall social welfare measure. Using a horizontal equity index, we also compare the different systems' performance in terms of how neighboring generations are treated. While the actual Swedish system smoothes stochastic fluctuations more than any other and produces the highest degree of horizontal equity, it does so by accumulating a buffer stock of assets that alleviates the need for frequent adjustments. In terms of social welfare, this accumulation of assets leads to a lower average rate of return that more than offsets the benefits of risk reduction, leaving systems with more frequent adjustments that spread risks broadly among generations as those most preferred
Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative Social Security systems by Alan J Auerbach( Book )

5 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Even with well-developed capital markets, there is no private market mechanism for trading between current and future generations, so a potential role for public old-age pension systems is to spread economic and demographic shocks among different generations. This paper evaluates the smoothing and propagation of shocks of three pay-as-you-go public pension schemes, based on the actual U.S. and German systems, which vary in the extent to which they rely on tax adjustments versus benefit adjustments to provide annual cash-flow budget balance. Modifying the Auerbach-Kotlikoff (1987) dynamic general-equilibrium overlapping generations model to incorporate realistic patterns of fertility and mortality and shocks to productivity, fertility and mortality, we evaluate the effectiveness of the three public pension systems at spreading the effects of such shocks. We find that the systems, particularly those that rely to some extent on tax adjustments, are effective at spreading fertility and mortality shocks, but that this is not the case for productivity shocks, for which the pension systems actually tend to concentrate the economic impact. These results suggest that both system design and the source of shocks are important factors in determining the potential of public pension arrangements to spread the burden of shocks
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Demographic change and fiscal policy
Alternative Names
Demos Lee, Ronald 1941-


Lee, R. 1941-

Lee, R. D. 1941-

Lee, Roland 1941-

Lee, Ronald.

Lee Ronald 1941-....

Lee, Ronald D.

Lee, Ronald D. 1941-

Lee, Ronald D. (Ronald Demos), 1941-

Lee, Ronald Demos

English (239)

Hebrew (1)

Population and economic change in East AsiaPopulation aging and the generational economy : a global perspectiveGlobal population aging and its economic consequencesThe population history of England, 1541-1871 : a reconstructionLocal fiscal effects of illegal immigration : report of a workshop