WorldCat Identities

Cliff, Roger

Works: 30 works in 144 publications in 2 languages and 11,970 library holdings
Genres: History  Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author, Editor
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by Roger Cliff
Ready for takeoff : China's advancing aerospace industry by Roger Cliff( )

10 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 2,356 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"China's aerospace industry has advanced at an impressive rate over the past decade. While some of this progress can be attributed to rapidly growing governmental support for China's aerospace sector, China's aerospace capabilities have also benefited from the increasing participation of its aerospace industry in the global commercial aerospace market and the supply chains of the world's leading aerospace firms. This monograph assesses China's aerospace capabilities and the extent to which China's participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to the improvement of those capabilities. Specific areas assessed include China's commercial aviation manufacturing capabilities, its commercial and military capabilities in space, efforts of the Chinese government to encourage foreign participation in the development of the aerospace industry, transfers of foreign aerospace technology to China, the extent to which U.S. and other foreign aerospace firms are dependent on supplies from China, and the implications of all of these issues for U.S. security interests. The study should be of interest to business analysts, policymakers, lawmakers, and anyone who wishes to learn about China's market for commercial aviation, the capabilities of China's aerospace manufacturing industry, the role foreign aerospace firms are playing in the development of China's aerospace capabilities, and security implications for the United States. This research was sponsored by the U.S-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which was established by Congress in 2000 to monitor and report on the economic and national security dimensions of U.S. trade and economic ties with the People's Republic of China. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND Corporation's National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis."--Preface
China's arms sales : motivations and implications by Daniel Byman( )

11 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 2,059 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's arms sales have become the focus of considerable attention and pose a moderate threat to U.S. interests. Although Chinese sales have fallen in recent years, and Beijing has become more responsible in the transfer of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) technologies, much progress will be needed to curtail China's behavior. Principal recipients of Chinese arms have been Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand. These countries and others seek Chinese weapons because they are available, cheap, and easy to use and maintain. In addition to missiles, the Chinese are willing to transfer NBC technology. The United States and other countries do have a modest ability to influence Chinese behavior, and China has increasingly wished to be viewed as a responsible world nation. The analysis supports three major findings about China's arms sale behavior: (1) China's arms transfers not motivated primarily to generate export earnings but by foreign policy considerations; (2) China's government has more control over transfers than some have reported: its weapons export system is quite centralized; and (3) China's adherence to international nonproliferation norms is in fact increasing. Nevertheless, Washington must hedge against the likelihood of sales and develop offsets in concert with allies
U.S.-China relations after resolution of Taiwan's status by Roger Cliff( )

12 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 1,958 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Although the question of Taiwan's status may not be resolved soon, considering various outcomes and their possible effects on U.S.-China relations is useful. Ten trajectories for the resolution of Taiwan's status are given, with effects on U.S.-China relations ranging from close cooperation to cold war. As China's military capabilities grow, it will become more difficult but more important to prevent Beijing from trying to use force against Taiwan
21 shi ji zhong gong kong jun yong bing si xiang by Roger Cliff( )

19 editions published between 2010 and 2012 in English and Chinese and held by 1,787 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Less than a decade ago, China's air force was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training according to outdated employment concepts. Today, the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) appears to be on its way to becoming a modern, highly capable air force for the 21st century. This monograph analyzes publications of the Chinese military, previously published Western analyses of China's air force, and information available in published sources about current and future capabilities of the PLAAF. It describes the concepts for employing forces that the PLAAF is likely to implement in the future, analyzes how those concepts might be realized in a conflict over Taiwan, assesses the implications of China implementing these concepts, and provides recommendations about actions that should be taken in response
Entering the dragon's lair : Chinese antiaccess strategies and their implications for the United States by Roger Cliff( )

14 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 1,738 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Could China use antiaccess strategies to defeat the United States in a conflict-in the sense of accomplishing its military and political objectives while preventing the United States from doing likewise? Analysis of Chinese military-doctrinal writings reveals a number of antiaccess concepts that could have this effect. There are a number of actions the United States can take, however, to reduce the effectiveness of such strategies
The Chinese Air Force : evolving concepts, roles, and capabilities( )

8 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 850 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Presents revised and edited papers from a October 2010 conference held in Taipei on the Chinese Air Force. The conference was jointly organized by Taiwan?s Council for Advanced Policy Studies, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the U.S. National Defense University, and the RAND Corporation. This books offers a complete picture of where the Chinese air force is today, where it has come from, and most importantly, where it is headed
The military potential of China's commercial technology by Roger Cliff( )

15 editions published in 2001 in English and Chinese and held by 647 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's economy is expected to grow over the next 20 years at a rate that will make it larger than the U.S. economy at the end of that period. This suggests that China has the economic potential to be a U.S. military rival by the year 2020. But can it become such a rival? At present, China's military hardware is largely based on 1950s Soviet technology. To produce weaponry technologically comparable to U.S. weaponry by 2020, China would have to improve its technological capabilities through internal, defense-industry efforts and/or other avenues: direct transfers of military technology from abroad, imports of components and equipment, and diffusion from China's civilian industries. Of these three, the third, diffusion from civilian industries, is the most promising over the long run. This report explores this option, examining China's current commercial technology in eight industries (microelectronics, computers, telecommunications equipment, nuclear power, biotechnology, chemicals, aviation, and space) that have the most potential for supporting military technology development, and assessing the prospects for technological progress (in terms of capabilities, effort, incentives, and institutions) over the next 10 to 20 years. The findings suggest that even though China's military will not be the U.S. military's technological equal by 2020, the U.S. still must prepare for a Chinese military whose capabilities will steadily advance in the next 10 to 20 years and that may develop capabilities in certain "niches" that will present difficulties for the U.S. military in some potential-conflict scenarios
Science and technology in Chinese civilization( Book )

7 editions published in 1987 in English and held by 205 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's military power : assessing current and future capabilities by Roger Cliff( Book )

10 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 173 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Once termed the 'world's largest military museum, ' the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically- and empirically-grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history"--Publisher's description
New opportunities and challenges for Taiwan's security by Roger Cliff( Book )

5 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 121 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Revised papers from the conference "Cross-Strait Relations: New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security," held Nov. 7, 2009, at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., jointly sponsored by the Rand Corp., the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at National Defense University, and the Council for Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS) in Taipei. It was the 21st annual conference on China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) cosponsored by Rand and CAPS. The goal was to consider how a range of political, economic, and military factors are likely to shape Taiwan's security over the coming decade. The conference featured panels on the implications of recent improvements in relations between Taiwan and mainland China, the potential role of confidence-building measures in improving cross-Strait stability and security, the effect of changes in the military balance on cross-Strait relations, and longer-term (five to ten or more years in the future) challenges to security in the Taiwan Strait and possible responses to those challenges. The panelists' papers, presented in these proceedings, included examinations of current cross-State tensions and the feasibility of confidence-building measures, U.S.-Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, political change and military capabilities in Taiwan and China, deepened cross-Strait rapprochement, and challenges to Taiwan's defense program and potential Chinese military operations in the Strait
RAND electronically distributed documents( Book )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 17 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Chinese Air Force : Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities by Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (U.S).( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 8 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Dangerous thresholds : managing escalation in the 21st century by Forrest E Morgan( )

3 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The subject of escalation has received little attention in U.S. strategic thought since the end of the Cold War. With prospects of conflict between nuclear-armed superpowers receding in memory, few policymakers, security analysts, or military leaders have worried about the danger of wars spinning out of control or considered how to manage these risks. Yet there are important reasons to examine the dynamics of escalation in the current security environment. Although the United States retains its nuclear superiority and has demonstrated the ability to pro- project overwhelming force in most conventional conflicts, strategic conditions have changed considerably in the past 15 years, and new adversaries have emerged. These developments could find the United States in escalatory situations that its leaders, schooled in ideas developed during the Cold War, are ill equipped to anticipate or manage. Understanding escalation is particularly important to the U.S. Air Force because of its unique ability to strike deep within enemy territory and the emphasis in Air Force doctrine on rapid strategic attack to achieve shock, paralysis, and escalation dominance. The Air Force recognizes the importance of understanding and managing the risks of escalation. In 2004, Director of Air Force Strategic Planning Major General Ronald J. Bath sponsored a war game in which uncontrolled escalation occurred, surprising players and controllers alike. Because this experience was just one in a series of escalatory events occurring in major war games over the past several years, General Bath recommended to Air Force Chief of Staff General John P. Jumper that the RAND Corporation be tasked to examine the risks of escalation in the current security environment and offer recommendations on how the Air Force can best anticipate and manage those risks
Advances underway in China's defense industries by Roger Cliff( Book )

1 edition published in 2006 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's defense industry is emerging from its troubled past( Book )

1 edition published in 2005 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Dragon and tiger : relations between China and Taiwan since 1978 by Roger Cliff( )

4 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's military modernization and the cross-strait balance by Roger Cliff( )

3 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In a RAND study that I led which is currently under review, my colleagues Mark Burles, Michael Chase, and Kevin Pollpeter analyzed Chinese military doctrinal writings that discuss how to defeat a militarily superior adversary such as the United States, and found in them at least eight strategic principles that have implications for U.S. force posture in the Pacific theater. The first such principle is seizing the initiative early in a conflict. For example, Chinese military analysts note that, by not seizing the initiative in the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq allowed the United States to build up its forces until it had overwhelming superiority. If China is to be victorious in a conflict with a militarily superior power, therefore, China must go on the offensive from the very beginning. In the context of a conflict between the United States and China, this means that U.S. force posture in Pacific theater will be critical, as China is likely to go on the offensive before additional forces can be brought into the theater. A second and related strategic principle for defeating a militarily superior adversary is the importance of surprise. Surprise is valuable not only for the immediate tactical advantage it conveys, but also because also because surprise is an important way of seizing the initiative in a conflict. Achieving surprise against an adversary will put the adversary in the position of reacting to China's moves, making it relatively easy to maintain the initiative thereafter. In the context of a conflict between the United States and China, this means that the ability of U.S. forces in the Pacific theater to avoid and survive surprise attacks will be critical
The development of China's air force capabilities by Roger Cliff( Book )

1 edition published in 2010 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on May 20, 2010
A new direction for China's defense industry( Book )

3 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Since the early 1980s, a prominent and consistent conclusion drawn from research on China's defense-industrial complex has been that China's defense-production capabilities are rife with weaknesses and limitations. This study argues for an alternative approach: From the vantage point of 2005, it is time to shift the focus of current research to the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China's defense-industrial complex. The study found that China's defense sectors are designing and producing a wide range of increasingly advanced weapons that, in the short term, are relevant to a possible conflict over Taiwan but also to China's long-term military presence in Asia. Part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this study examines the current and future capabilities of China's defense industry. The goals of this study are to 1. Assess recent trends in China's 25-year-long effort to reform its defense industry 2. Analyze the individual strengths and weaknesses of four specific defense-industrial sectors: missile, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology 3. Explain variations in performance among different defense-industry sectors, with a focus on differences in institutional arrangements, incentives, and exposure to market forces 4. Evaluate the prospects for China's defense industry and its ability to contribute to military modernization. The information presented in this report is based on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work, and on primary and secondary English and Chinese sources
Modernizing China's military : opportunities and constraints by Keith Crane( )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The purpose of this study is to assess future resource constraints on, and potential domestic economic and industrial contributions to, the ability of the Chinese military to become a significant threat to U.S. forces by 2025. The authors conducted this assessment by answering the following questions: (1) What will be the likely shape and size of the Chinese economy over the next two decades?; (2) What types of constraints will the Chinese government face in terms of drawing on increased economic output for spending on the military?; (3) What problems will the military face and what possibilities will it have in terms of purchasing the goods and services it desires from the Chinese defense industry?; and (4) How will these constraints and opportunities shape the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces over the next two decades? The authors developed answers to these questions using a variety of information sources and analytical techniques. Chinese statistical data, analyses of the Chinese economy, and a model of the Chinese economy were used to address the question of economic growth and size. The rich literature discussing tax, social, and fiscal policies in China was married with a statistical analysis of Chinese spending and the economic analysis to address the questions of budgetary constraints. To evaluate the health of China's defense industries, they engaged in an extensive analysis of open-source Chinese and English-language information on these industries and interviews with knowledgeable industry specialists to determine institutional reforms in China's defense industries, including contracting procedures. Estimates of the current and future size of Chinese military expenditures drew on newly available Chinese-language primary sources on defense budgeting and local expenditures, Chinese statistical material, and a military forecasting model developed for this study
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U.S.-China relations after resolution of Taiwan's status
China's arms sales : motivations and implicationsU.S.-China relations after resolution of Taiwan's status21 shi ji zhong gong kong jun yong bing si xiangEntering the dragon's lair : Chinese antiaccess strategies and their implications for the United StatesThe military potential of China's commercial technologyNew opportunities and challenges for Taiwan's securityA new direction for China's defense industry
English (127)

Chinese (5)