WorldCat Identities

Cliff, Roger

Works: 29 works in 130 publications in 2 languages and 12,107 library holdings
Genres: History  Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author, Editor
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by Roger Cliff
China's arms sales : motivations and implications by Daniel Byman( Book )

10 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 252 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's arms sales have become the focus of considerable attention and pose a moderate threat to U.S. interests. Although Chinese sales have fallen in recent years, and Beijing has become more responsible in the transfer of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) technologies, much progress will be needed to curtail China's behavior. Principal recipients of Chinese arms have been Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand. These countries and others seek Chinese weapons because they are available, cheap, and easy to use and maintain. In addition to missiles, the Chinese are willing to transfer NBC technology. The United States and other countries do have a modest ability to influence Chinese behavior, and China has increasingly wished to be viewed as a responsible world nation. The analysis supports three major findings about China's arms sale behavior: (1) China's arms transfers not motivated primarily to generate export earnings but by foreign policy considerations; (2) China's government has more control over transfers than some have reported: its weapons export system is quite centralized; and (3) China's adherence to international nonproliferation norms is in fact increasing. Nevertheless, Washington must hedge against the likelihood of sales and develop offsets in concert with allies
The military potential of China's commercial technology by Roger Cliff( Book )

16 editions published in 2001 in English and Chinese and held by 242 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's economy is expected to grow over the next 20 years at a rate that will make it larger than the U.S. economy at the end of that period. This suggests that China has the economic potential to be a U.S. military rival by the year 2020. But can it become such a rival? At present, China's military hardware is largely based on 1950s Soviet technology. To produce weaponry technologically comparable to U.S. weaponry by 2020, China would have to improve its technological capabilities through internal, defense-industry efforts and/or other avenues: direct transfers of military technology from abroad, imports of components and equipment, and diffusion from China's civilian industries. Of these three, the third, diffusion from civilian industries, is the most promising over the long run. This report explores this option, examining China's current commercial technology in eight industries (microelectronics, computers, telecommunications equipment, nuclear power, biotechnology, chemicals, aviation, and space) that have the most potential for supporting military technology development, and assessing the prospects for technological progress (in terms of capabilities, effort, incentives, and institutions) over the next 10 to 20 years. The findings suggest that even though China's military will not be the U.S. military's technological equal by 2020, the U.S. still must prepare for a Chinese military whose capabilities will steadily advance in the next 10 to 20 years and that may develop capabilities in certain "niches" that will present difficulties for the U.S. military in some potential-conflict scenarios
Science and technology in Chinese civilization( Book )

7 editions published in 1987 in English and held by 181 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Entering the dragon's lair : Chinese antiaccess strategies and their implications for the United States( Book )

12 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 173 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Could China use antiaccess strategies to defeat the United States in a conflict-in the sense of accomplishing its military and political objectives while preventing the United States from doing likewise? Analysis of Chinese military-doctrinal writings reveals a number of antiaccess concepts that could have this effect. There are a number of actions the United States can take, however, to reduce the effectiveness of such strategies
U.S.-China relations after resolution of Taiwan's status by Roger Cliff( Book )

13 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 150 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Although the question of Taiwan's status may not be resolved soon, considering various outcomes and their possible effects on U.S.-China relations is useful. Ten trajectories for the resolution of Taiwan's status are given, with effects on U.S.-China relations ranging from close cooperation to cold war. As China's military capabilities grow, it will become more difficult but more important to prevent Beijing from trying to use force against Taiwan
China's military power : assessing current and future capabilities by Roger Cliff( Book )

9 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 134 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Once termed the 'world's largest military museum,' the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically- and empirically-grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history"--Publisher's description
Ready for takeoff : China's advancing aerospace industry by Roger Cliff( Book )

10 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 130 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"China's aerospace industry has advanced at an impressive rate over the past decade. While some of this progress can be attributed to rapidly growing governmental support for China's aerospace sector, China's aerospace capabilities have also benefited from the increasing participation of its aerospace industry in the global commercial aerospace market and the supply chains of the world's leading aerospace firms. This monograph assesses China's aerospace capabilities and the extent to which China's participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to the improvement of those capabilities. Specific areas assessed include China's commercial aviation manufacturing capabilities, its commercial and military capabilities in space, efforts of the Chinese government to encourage foreign participation in the development of the aerospace industry, transfers of foreign aerospace technology to China, the extent to which U.S. and other foreign aerospace firms are dependent on supplies from China, and the implications of all of these issues for U.S. security interests. The study should be of interest to business analysts, policymakers, lawmakers, and anyone who wishes to learn about China's market for commercial aviation, the capabilities of China's aerospace manufacturing industry, the role foreign aerospace firms are playing in the development of China's aerospace capabilities, and security implications for the United States. This research was sponsored by the U.S-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which was established by Congress in 2000 to monitor and report on the economic and national security dimensions of U.S. trade and economic ties with the People's Republic of China. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND Corporation's National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis."--Preface
New opportunities and challenges for Taiwan's security by Roger Cliff( Book )

4 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 108 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Revised papers from the conference "Cross-Strait Relations: New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security," held Nov. 7, 2009, at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., jointly sponsored by the Rand Corp., the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at National Defense University, and the Council for Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS) in Taipei. It was the 21st annual conference on China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) cosponsored by Rand and CAPS. The goal was to consider how a range of political, economic, and military factors are likely to shape Taiwan's security over the coming decade. The conference featured panels on the implications of recent improvements in relations between Taiwan and mainland China, the potential role of confidence-building measures in improving cross-Strait stability and security, the effect of changes in the military balance on cross-Strait relations, and longer-term (five to ten or more years in the future) challenges to security in the Taiwan Strait and possible responses to those challenges. The panelists' papers, presented in these proceedings, included examinations of current cross-State tensions and the feasibility of confidence-building measures, U.S.-Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, political change and military capabilities in Taiwan and China, deepened cross-Strait rapprochement, and challenges to Taiwan's defense program and potential Chinese military operations in the Strait
21 shi ji zhong gong kong jun yong bing si xiang by Roger Cliff( Book )

13 editions published between 2010 and 2012 in 3 languages and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Organization of China's Air and Missile Forces -- The Evolution of Chinese Air Force Doctrine -- Chinese Concepts for the Employment of Air Forces -- Air Offensive Campaigns -- Air Defense Campaigns -- Air Blockade Campaigns -- Airborne Campaigns -- The Role of Other Services in Air Force Campaigns -- Possible PLAAF Operational Concepts, Capabilities, and Tactics in a Taiwan Straits Conflict
RAND electronically distributed documents( Book )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 15 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's military power assessing current and future capabilities by Roger Cliff( )

1 edition published in 2015 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Dragon and tiger : relations between China and Taiwan since 1978 by Roger Cliff( )

4 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Advances underway in China's defense industries by Roger Cliff( Book )

1 edition published in 2006 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

China's defense industry is emerging from its troubled past( Book )

1 edition published in 2005 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

U by Roger Cliff( )

1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The development of China's air force capabilities by Roger Cliff( Book )

1 edition published in 2010 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on May 20, 2010
A new direction for China's defense industry( Book )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Since the early 1980s, a prominent and consistent conclusion of Western research on China's defense-industrial complex has been that China's defense R & D and production capabilities are rife with weaknesses and limitations. In this study, we call into question this conventional wisdom. Our research found that certain Chinese defense enterprises are designing and producing a wide range of increasingly advanced weapons that, in the short term, are relevant to the Chinese military's ability to prosecute a possible conflict over Taiwan but also to China's long-term military presence in Asia. This study puts forward an alternative approach to assessing China's defense-industrial capabilities: From the vantage point of 2005, it is time to shift the focus of research to the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China's defense-industrial complex. This report is intended to help the U.S. Air Force assess the ability of Chinese defense industries to design and produce more capable weaponry in the coming decades. The study assesses institutional changes in the operations of defense-industry enterprises in four sectors: missiles, shipbuilding, military aviation, and information technology/defense electronics. The study, sponsored by the U.S. Air Force's Director for Operational Plans and Joint Matters (AF/XOX) and the Combatant Commander of the Pacific Air Force (PACAF/CC), is part of the RAND Corporation's ongoing research on China and China's military establishment. It is a companion study to " Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon, and William Overholt. Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints, MG-260-AF, 2005. The information in this report is current as of January 2005
China's military modernization and the cross-strait balance by Roger Cliff( Book )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

"In a RAND study that I led which is currently under review, my colleagues Mark Burles, Michael Chase, and Kevin Pollpeter analyzed Chinese military doctrinal writings that discuss how to defeat a militarily superior adversary such as the United States, and found in them at least eight strategic principles that have implications for U.S. force posture in the Pacific theater. The first such principle is seizing the initiative early in a conflict. For example, Chinese military analysts note that, by not seizing the initiative in the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq allowed the United States to build up its forces until it had overwhelming superiority. If China is to be victorious in a conflict with a militarily superior power, therefore, China must go on the offensive from the very beginning. In the context of a conflict between the United States and China, this means that U.S. force posture in Pacific theater will be critical, as China is likely to go on the offensive before additional forces can be brought into the theater. A second and related strategic principle for defeating a militarily superior adversary is the importance of surprise. Surprise is valuable not only for the immediate tactical advantage it conveys, but also because also because surprise is an important way of seizing the initiative in a conflict. Achieving surprise against an adversary will put the adversary in the position of reacting to China's moves, making it relatively easy to maintain the initiative thereafter. In the context of a conflict between the United States and China, this means that the ability of U.S. forces in the Pacific theater to avoid and survive surprise attacks will be critical."--Page 1
Modernizing China's military : opportunities and constraints by Keith Crane( )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

To help the U.S. Air Force assess the resources the government of the People's Republic of China is likely to spend on its military over the next two decades, this study projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and the military in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future Chinese expenditures on defense with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Although economic growth in China is destined to slow, output will still triple by 2025. In addition, government reforms hold the promise of improving the weak performance of China's defense industries. Although the researchers' high-end forecast of military expenditures is based on the assumption that the Chinese government would be able to spend 5.0 percent of GDP on defense, they believe that pressures within China to increase social spending on health care, pensions, education, and the environment, coupled with the costs of paying the Chinese government's liabilities, make it more likely that military spending will not rise above 2.3 percent of GDP. Using a combination of projected market and purchasing power parity exchange rates, the authors forecast that Chinese military spending is likely to rise from an estimated $69 billion in 2003 to $185 billion by 2025-approximately 61 percent of what the Department of Defense spent in 2003
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China's arms sales : motivations and implications
English (104)

Chinese (5)

The military potential of China's commercial technologyEntering the dragon's lair : Chinese antiaccess strategies and their implications for the United StatesU.S.-China relations after resolution of Taiwan's statusReady for takeoff : China's advancing aerospace industryNew opportunities and challenges for Taiwan's security21 shi ji zhong gong kong jun yong bing si xiangUA new direction for China's defense industryModernizing China's military : opportunities and constraints