International Monetary Fund European DeptOverview
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Most widely held works by
International Monetary Fund
Exchange rates in Central Europe a blessing or a curse
by Alain Borghijs
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Book
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4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 93 libraries worldwide
Managing confidence in emerging market bank runs
by Se-Jik Kim
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Book
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4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 91 libraries worldwide
Tax, welfare, and pension reforms in Slovenia implications for work incentives and labor participation
by Philippe Egoumé-Bossogo
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Book
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5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 90 libraries worldwide The labor participation rate in Slovenia has been lower than in the EU-15 (the members states prior to May 2004), particularly for the low-income and older individuals. Using simulations of tax and social benefits and public pensions, the paper shows how the current tax, welfare, and pension systems create disincentives to work among these groups. The paper finds that incentives to retire early are strong for men, especially low-wage earners. The marginal effective tax rates also make it costly for low-income individuals to work and negatively affect the probability of participating. The paper proposes reform measures to enhance work incentives and labor participation, which will be crucial for dealing with population aging and for achieving higher potential growth in Slovenia.
Global aging and declining world interest rates macroeconomic insurance through pension reform in Cyprus
by Mario Catalán
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Book
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3 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 81 libraries worldwide How will the world-wide decline in real interest rates associated with global aging affect small open economies (SOEs) with aging populations? Lower interest rates will result in higher capital-labor ratios and increased wages; higher wages, in turn, will be passed on to pension benefits, exacerbating aging-related fiscal pressures. The pass-through effect will be stronger if pensions are indexed to nominal wages rather than prices. Using an overlapping generations model, the paper illustrates the interest rates transmission mechanism and its interaction with pension indexation for the case of Cyprus. In addition, the paper evaluates the capacity of pension reforms to insure the economy against long-run movements in world interest rates. It concludes that pension reforms, particularly those that change the indexation of pensions from wages to prices, provide substantial macro-insurance and shock absorption benefits.
Turkey request for stand-by arrangement and extension of repurchase expectations : staff report, staff supplements, press release on the Executive Board discussion, and statement by the Executive Director for Turkey
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Book
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4 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 75 libraries worldwide
The utilization-adjusted output gap is the Russian economy overheating
by Nienke Oomes
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Book
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3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the "natural rates" of capacity and labor utilization above which inflation begins to accelerate; (2) estimating a production function with utilization-adjusted capital and labor inputs; and (3) defining potential output as the level of output obtained when both capital and labor are at their estimated natural rates. The results suggest that the output gap in Russia was negative between 1999 and 2003, but may have recently become positive, thus contributing to inflationary pressures.
Barriers to retail competition and prices evidence from Spain
by Alexander W Hoffmaister
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide Why do prices in Spain's regions fail to converge? The prime suspects for this puzzling result are differences in regional barriers to entry in retail distribution. This paper develops a Cournot-Nash model of imperfect competition to illustrate the effect of barriers on prices. A unique data set-derived from an extensive analysis of competition policies in Spain- provides evidence that barriers to entry increase regional prices. The evidence also suggests that, consistent with the model's predictions, barriers to entry raise prices up to a point, and thus indicate that barriers have a threshold effect on prices.
Sudden stops and IMF-supported programs
by Barry J Eichengreen
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide
Options for fiscal consolidation in the United Kingdom
by Dennis Botman
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Book
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3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of different timing and composition of fiscal adjustment in the United Kingdom using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. Early consolidation dampens aggregate demand in the short term, but increases output in the long term as smaller primary surpluses are needed as a result of lower interest payments. Reducing government transfers or current government spending provides larger gains than increasing taxes, in particular compared to raising corporate or personal income taxes. We show that these conclusions are robust under alternative behavioral assumptions and parameterizations. A reduction in global saving would make early consolidation more urgent from both cyclical and long-term perspectives. Finally, we show that tax reform aimed at increasing incentives to save could provide support to fiscal consolidation measures.
Resolving a large contingent fiscal liability Eastern European experiences
by Mark Flanagan
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Book
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2 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide On occasion, a government may find itself confronted with a need to address a large contingent or off balance sheet fiscal liability. Implementing a settlement raises issues of fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability. This paper surveys the key design issues, and draws lessons from recent Eastern European experience. It then considers in more detail the particular case of Ukraine, and how it might approach its own large contingent liability-the so-called lost savings-which at end-2007 amounted to as much as 18 percent of GDP.
Reforming employment protection legislation in France
by Jianping Zhou
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide
Structural reforms in the Euro area economic impact and role of synchronization across markets and countries
by Luc Everaert
(
Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide
Enforcement and the stability and growth pact how fiscal policy did and did not change under Europe's fiscal framework
by Anthony Annett
(
Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 48 libraries worldwide
Regional financial spillovers across Europe a global VAR analysis
by Alessandro Galesi
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Book
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3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 46 libraries worldwide
Distress in European banks an analysis based on a new data set
by Tigran Poghosyan
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Book
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3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 46 libraries worldwide The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of early identification of weak banks: when problems are identified late, solutions are much more costly. Until recently, Europe has seen only a small number of outright bank failures, which made the estimation of early warning models for bank supervision very difficult. This paper presents a unique database of individual bank distress across the European Union from mid-1990s to 2008. Using this data set, we analyze the causes of banking distress in Europe. We identify a set of indicators and thresholds that can help to distinguish sound banks from those vulnerable to financial distress.
Recent French export performance is there a competitiveness problem
by Alain N Kabundi
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Book
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3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 46 libraries worldwide Recently, the export performance of France relative to its own past and relative to a major trading partner, Germany, deteriorated. That deterioration seems related to the geographical destination and product composition of trend exports. Faced with an increase in unit labor costs or in its terms of trade, France adjusts relatively less via price and wage changes, and more via employment changes. Given that SMIC convergence resulted in a significant increase in unit labor costs, foreign sector difficulties might be structural. Trade flows relevance and euro area policy constraints highlight the importance of structural reforms that increase markets flexibility.
Euro area sovereign risk during the crisis
by Silvia Sgherri
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Book
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3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 43 libraries worldwide While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to co-move over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.
The size of government and U.S.-European differences in economic performance
by Gerwin Bell
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Book
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3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 41 libraries worldwide
Euro area monetary policy in uncharted waters
by Martin Čihák
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Book
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2 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 41 libraries worldwide We analyze the European Central Bank's (ECB's) response to the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that even during the crisis, the core part of ECB's monetary policy transmission-from policy rates to market rates-has continued to operate, but at a decreased efficiency. We also find some evidence that the ECB's non-standard measures, namely the lengthening of the maturity of monetary policy operations and the provision of funds at the fixed rate, reduced money market term spreads, facilitating the pass-through from policy to market rates. Furthermore, the results imply that the substantial increase in the ECB's balance sheet may have contributed to a reduction in government bond term spreads.
Decoupling from the east toward the west? analyses of spillovers to the Baltic countries
by Kingsley I Obiora
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Book
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3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 40 libraries worldwide more
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Balance of payments Baltic States Bank failures--Econometric models Banks and banking Capital movements--Econometric models Competition Competition--Econometric models Debts, Public Developing countries Early retirement Econometric models Economic assistance Economic development Economic history Economic policy Europe Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Europe--European Union countries Finance Financial crises--Econometric models Fiscal policy Fiscal policy--Econometric models Foreign exchange rates Foreign exchange rates--Econometric models France Germany Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) Great Britain Income tax Inflation (Finance) Inflation (Finance)--Econometric models Interest rates--Econometric models International Monetary Fund Italy Labor market Labor supply Liquidity (Economics)--Econometric models Macroeconomics Membership requirements Monetary policy Monetary policy--Econometric models Pensions Pensions--Econometric models Public welfare Slovenia Turkey Ukraine United States World Bank
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