WorldCat Identities
Fri Mar 21 17:14:57 2014 UTClccn-n882768040.33Currency boards and external shocks how much pain, how much gain? /0.590.94From centrally-planned to market economies : the road from CPE to PCPE /85296566Guillermo_Calvon 8827680454682642415676Calvo, G. 1941-Calvo, Guillermo.Calvo, Guillermo, 1941-Calvo, Guillermo Antonio, 1941-lccn-no92022371Reinhart, Carmen M.hnredtlccn-n90689985Végh Gramont, Carlos A.1958-edtlccn-n87908460Velasco, Andrésedtnc-national bureau of economic researchNational Bureau of Economic Researchlccn-n80129078Perry, Guillermoedtlccn-n82113436Obstfeld, Mauriceedtlccn-n50031983Mundell, Robert A.hnrdtelccn-n77003489Dornbusch, Rudigeredtlccn-no93032194Izquierdo, Alejandro1964-lccn-n50002085Díaz Alejandro, Carlos FedericohnrCalvo, Guillermo A.Conference proceedingsMonetary policyFinancial crisesDeveloping countriesCapital marketInternational financeForeign exchange administrationForeign exchange ratesRational expectations (Economic theory)MoneyInternational tradeCurrency boardsInternational economic relationsEconomic policyPrivatizationFinancial institutionsForeign exchangeBanks and bankingEurope, EasternCapital movementsDebts, ExternalLatin AmericaEconomic stabilizationDíaz Alejandro, Carlos FedericoCapital movements--Government policyDebts, PublicEurope--European Union countriesCentral planningInflation (Finance)--Econometric modelsBalance of payments--Econometric modelsEconomic stabilization--Econometric modelsDepressions--Econometric modelsFinancial crises--Econometric modelsUnited StatesForeign exchange--Government policyInflation (Finance)--Mathematical modelsDeflation (Finance)--Mathematical modelsPortfolio managementInvestments, ForeignFiscal policyArgentinaEconomic conversionTariff--Mathematical modelsFree trade--Mathematical modelsTariff--Econometric modelsFree trade--Econometric modelsEconomic policy--CongressesMacroeconomicsEconomic developmentInflation (Finance)19411972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219841985198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201220138650188607332.042HB3722ocn491921301ocn310934170ocn799963945ocn468301608ocn312959830ocn797714178ocn801135968ocn614185965ocn456696951ocn760406387ocn799839326137617ocn044963687file19960.47Calvo, Guillermo AMoney, exchange rates, and outputGuillermo Calvo, who foresaw the financial crisis that followed the devaluationn of Mexico's peso, has spent much of his career thinking beyond the conventional wisdom. In a quiet and understated way, Calvo has made seminal contributions to several major research areas in macroeconomics, particularly monetary policy, exchange rates, public debt, and stabilization in Latin America and post-communist countries. Money, Exchange Rates, and Output brings together these contributions in a broad selection of the author's work over the past two decades. There are introductions to each section, and an introduction to the entire collection that outlines the connections throughout and survey the current state of macroeconomic theory. Specific issues covered are predetermined exchange rates, currency substitution, domestic public debt and seigniorage, and stabilizing transition economics+-+299886030532413609ocn062872806file20050.53Calvo, Guillermo AEmerging capital markets in turmoil bad luck or bad policyAnalysis of financial crises in emerging market economies, including Mexico, Argentina, and Russia; traces the evolution of crisis theory and challenges the conventional wisdom+-+398885717511079ocn273057427file20080.47Money, crises, and transition essays in honor of Guillermo A. Calvo+-+611736717578810ocn045733409file19970.33Perry, GuillermoCurrency boards and external shocks how much pain, how much gain?Conference proceedings57815ocn044650941book20010.70Money, capital mobility, and trade : essays in honor of Robert A. Mundell+-+673785717538912ocn027265833book19930.76Borensztein, EduardoFinancial sector reforms and exchange arrangements in Eastern EuropeThe first paper discusses developments in the financial sector and constraints on the performance of recently constituted commercial banks. The second paper discusses the extent to which exchange arrangements in these countries have contributed to the reform process and the restructuring under way+-+142702200627210ocn018136104book19890.79Debt, stabilization, and development : essays in memory of Carlos Díaz-AlejandroConference proceedings2137ocn035223136book19960.81Private capital flows to emerging markets after the Mexican crisis+-+178778633517716ocn036549007book19970.84Calvo, Guillermo AThe debt burden and its consequences for monetary policy : proceedings of a conference held by the International Economic Association at the Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt, GermanyConference proceedings+-+04202676858813ocn041038659book19980.88Calvo, Guillermo AInflation stabilization and BOP crises in developing countriesHigh and persistent inflation has been one of the distinguishing macroeconomic characteristics of many developing countries since the end of World War II. Countries afflicted by chronic inflation, however, have not taken their fate lightly and have engaged in repeated stabilization attempts. More often than not, stabilization plans have failed. The end of stabilizations -- particularly those which rely on a pegged exchange rate -- has often involved dramatic balance of payment crises. As stabilization plans come and go, a large literature has developed trying to document the main empirical regularities and understand the key issues involved. This paper undertakes a critical review and evaluation of the literature related to inflation stabilization policies and balance of payment crises in developing countries8415ocn065173615book20060.86Calvo, Guillermo APhoenix miracles in emerging markets recovering without credit from systemic financial crisesUsing a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyse the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings indicate the presence of a very similar pattern across different episodes: output recovers with virtually no recovery in either domestic or foreign credit, a phenomenon that we call Phoenix Miracle, where output "rises from its ashes", suggesting that firms go through a process of financial engineering to restore liquidity outside the formal credit markets. Moreover, we show that the US Great Depression could be catalogued as a Phoenix Miracle. However, in contrast to the US Great Depression, EM output collapses occur in a context of accelerating price inflation and falling real wages, casting doubts on price deflation and nominal wage rigidity as key elements in explaining output collapse, and suggesting that financial factors are prominent for understanding these collapses8310ocn036643819book19970.90Calvo, Guillermo AUncertain duration of reform : dynamic implicationsWe develop a framework to study the effects of policies of uncertain duration on consumption dynamics under both complete and incomplete markets. We focus on the dynamic implications of market incompleteness, specifically on the lack of state-contingent bonds. Two policies are considered: pure output-increasing and tariff-reducing (trade liberalization). With" complete markets, the output-increasing policy leads to flat consumption, while with no contingent assets, consumption jumps upward on the announcement of the policy, continues rising as long as the policy is in effect, and collapses when it is abandoned. A similar consumption path obtains in a trade liberalization in the realistic case of low elasticity of substitution and no rebate of tariffs. Market incompleteness rationalizes the existence of gradual changes in consumption8213ocn023964746book19910.94Calvo, Guillermo AFrom centrally-planned to market economies : the road from CPE to PCPEThis paper deals with the early stages of transformation of centrally-planned economies (CBEs) into market economies during which expectations playa key role. It focuses on the transitional phase during which the economy is not any more a CPE but has not yet become a market economy. During this phase the economy is referred to as a 'previously centrally-planned economy" (PCPE). A simple model is developed to analyze the consequences of expected price liberalization. The model highlights the anticipatory character of economic behavior during the early stages of the transformation process. A major focus is given to credit markets. The CPEs undergoing transformation lack depth and breadth of financial markets. The lack of information necessary to assess risk and creditworthiness complicates the conduct of credit polity. The analysis illustrates the benefits of an early development of such markets, and of finding appropriate ways to "clean" the balance sheets of enterprises and banks from bad loans. It demonstrates the cost of a fine-tuning strategy and the benefits from a quick implementation of price reform. The paper also examines alternative means to reduce 'liquidity overhang, " and shows that all involve taxation of one form or another. The consequences of privatization are analyzed and the benefits of an early development of an effective tax system highlighted8012ocn024323405book19910.94Calvo, Guillermo AObstacles to transforming centrally-planned economies : the role of capital marketsThis paper identifies obstacles hindering the transformation of centrally-planned economies (CPEs) into well-functioning market economies. The analysis is motivated by the recent experience with economic transformation and restructuring in Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. The economic system in CPEs is highly distorted. Prices do not represent real social costs, incentives systems are absent, losses of unprofitable state-owned enterprises are automatically financed, legislations vital for the functioning of markets are not in place, private ownership and property rights are underdeveloped, bankruptcy laws are absent, markets are missing, shortages prevail and, occasionally, inflation is high. The obstacles identified relate to (i) anticipatory dynamics, (ii) monetary overhang and the budget, and (iii) underdeveloped credit markets. It is demonstrated that these obstacles inhibit the effectiveness of price reform, monetary and credit policies, and trade liberalization. The analysis focuses on various ways to remove the obstacles. In this regard, a special examination is made of the implications of cleaning the balance sheets of enterprises and banks from nonperforming loans, as well as ways to enhance credibility. In the absence of such measures, privatization will be difficult since the necessary information about creditworthiness of firms is lacking. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of sequencing, safety nets. and their associated obstacles789ocn042024360book19990.93Calvo, Guillermo ARational contagion and the globalization of securities marketsThis paper argues that the globalization of securities markets may promote contagion among investors by weakening incentives for gathering costly country-specific information and by strengthening incentives for imitating arbitrary market portfolios. In the presence of short-selling constraints, the utility gain of gathering information at a fixed cost converges to a constant level and may diminish as securities markets grow. Moreover, if a portfolio manager's marginal cost for yielding below-market returns exceeds the marginal gain for above-market returns, there is a range of optimal portfolios in which all investors imitate arbitrary market portfolios and this range widens as the market grows. Numerical simulations suggest that these frictions can have significant quantitative implications and they may induce large capital flows in emerging markets758ocn045597003book20000.93Calvo, Guillermo AFixing for your lifeThe Asian crisis took place against a background of exchange rate regimes that were characterized as soft pegs. This has led many analysts to conclude that the peg did it' and that emerging markets (EMs) should just say no' to pegged exchange rates. We present evidence that EMs are very different from developed economies in key dimensions that play a key role when it comes to the choice of exchange rate regime--floating for EMs is no panacea. In EMs currency crashes are contractionary, the adjustments in the current account are far more acute. Credibility and market access, as captured in the behavior of credit ratings and interest rates, is adversely affected by devaluations or depreciations. Exchange rate volatility is more damaging to trade and the passthrough from exchange rate swings to inflation is far higher in EMs. These differences between emerging and developed economies may explain EMs reluctance to tolerate large exchange rate movements. In a simple framework we illustrate why large exchange rate swings are feared when access to international credit may be lost749ocn045459989book20000.93Calvo, Guillermo AFear of floatingIn recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering toll on their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates-- soft pegs'--for these meltdowns. Adherents to that view advise countries to allow their currency to float. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, the monetary aggregates, interest rates, and commodity prices across 154 exchange rate arrangements to assess whether official labels' provide an adequate representation of actual country practice. We find that, countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not--there seems to be an epidemic case of fear of floating.' Since countries that are classified as having a free or a managed float mostly resemble noncredible pegs--the so-called demise of fixed exchange rates' is a myth--the fear of floating is pervasive, even among some of the developed countries. We present an analytical framework that helps to understand why there is fear of floating727ocn052717525book20030.93Calvo, Guillermo AThe mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countriesThis paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries. This suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable, and more on these deeper institutional arrangements. A focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years728ocn052060191book20030.93Calvo, Guillermo AInflation inertia and credible disinflation : the open economy caseThis paper develops a model of inflation inertia based on optimizing forward looking staggered price setting in a small open economy. Unlike in current models of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses. There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. For reasonable parameter values inflation stabilization improves welfare. The optimal steady state is reached at the Friedman rule. Technical appendices are available at www.nber.org/data-appendix/w9557/ inert-techapp.pdf697ocn052863830book20030.93Calvo, Guillermo ASudden stops, the real exchange rate, and fiscal sustainability : Argentina's lessonsWe offer an alternative explanation for the fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that breaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative prices is larger the more closed an economy is in terms of its supply of tradable goods. By contrasting Argentina's performance relative to other Latin American countries that were also subject to the Sudden Stop triggered by the Russian crisis of 1998, we identify key vulnerability indicators that separated Argentina from its piers. We also provide an explanation for the political maelstrom that ensued after the Sudden Stop, based on a War of Attrition argument related to the wealth redistribution conflict triggered by the Sudden Stop and fiscal collapse. This framework also provides elements to rationalize the banking crisis that accompanied the fall of Convertibility+-+3988857175+-+3988857175Fri Mar 21 16:13:10 EDT 2014batch32434