WorldCat Identities

Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson) 1954-

Overview
Works: 62 works in 223 publications in 4 languages and 6,306 library holdings
Genres: Counterfactual histories  Case studies  Bibliography 
Roles: Author, Editor, Other
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by Philip E Tetlock
Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

32 editions published between 2005 and 2017 in English and Undetermined and held by 748 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting."--Jacket
Reasoning and choice : explorations in political psychology by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

32 editions published between 1991 and 2012 in 3 languages and held by 537 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, this book offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favour and oppose politically. Reacting against the conventional wisdom, which stresses how little attention the general public pays to political issues and the lack of consistency in their opinions, the studies presented in this book redirect attention to the processes of reasoning that can be discerned when people are confronted with choices about political issues. These studies demonstrate that ordinary people are in fact capable of reasoning dependably about political issues by the use of judgmental heuristics, even if they have only a limited knowledge of politics and of specific issues
Prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

8 editions published between 1993 and 1994 in English and held by 526 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. The cleavage between the politics of race a half century ago and now is that race has become a greater dilemma than ever before. The choice is no longer between right and wrong, between the values of the American creed and a variety of irrational and self-serving beliefs. The choice now must be made among competing values, including compassion, the freedom to achieve, tolerance, the right to be judged on one's individual merits, the reach of the state, and the autonomy of the family - in a word, between the very values that have made up the American creed. This book is an attempt to contribute to a fresh understanding of prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma. It presents new lines of questions by deliberately interweaving two perspectives, the first taking up issues of race focusing on whites, the second on blacks. But viewed from either perspective, the objective is to view anew the issues of race as they are now, not as they were a generation or so ago. The contributors are drawn from several disciplines in the social sciences, and include sociologists, psychometricians, social and personality psychologists, demographers, and political scientists of several persuasions. The range of subjects covered in the book is similarly wide, including the use of group stereotypes by college students, the behavioral assessment of tolerance, cohort trends in stereotypes of blacks, the use by blacks of stereotypes, explanations of inequality, the constraints on the reactions of blacks to middle-class American values, and the bases of American thinking about racial policies
Unmaking the West : "what-if?" scenarios that rewrite world history( Book )

11 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 391 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

5 editions published in 1989 in English and held by 374 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives( Book )

9 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 368 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy by National Research Council (U.S.)( Book )

8 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 339 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Psychology and social policy( Book )

8 editions published between 1991 and 1992 in English and held by 316 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Superforecasting : die Kunst der richtigen Prognose by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

2 editions published in 2016 in German and held by 39 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Der durchschnittliche Experte war ungefähr so treffsicher wie ein Schimpanse, der auf eine Dartscheibe wirft." Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch ›Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose‹ eine Anleitung für treffsichere Prognosen in einer unsicheren Zeit.>>Superforecaster<< sind Menschen, denen erstaunlich gute Vorhersagen in allen Bereichen gelingen - bessere als den Experten. Was macht sie so besonders? In einem grossangelegten Forschungsprojekt ist Philip Tetlock dieser Frage nachgegangen und hat das Erfolgsgeheimnis der Superprognostiker gelüftet. Anhand anschaulicher und unterhaltsamer Beispiele zeigt er, wie wir alle bessere Prognosen für unser Leben machen können - denn wenn wir darüber nachdenken, eine neue Stelle zu suchen, zu heiraten, ein Haus zu kaufen, Geld zu investieren, ein Produkt auf den Markt zu bringen oder uns zur Ruhe zu setzen, dann hängen unsere Entscheidungen davon ab, was wir von der Zukunft erwarten. Ein wichtiges und nützliches Buch, um sich in einer immer komplexeren Welt besser zurechtzufinden
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction by Philip E Tetlock( Recording )

4 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 37 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic
Behavior, society and nuclear war( Book )

4 editions published in 1989 in English and held by 23 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and international conflict by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

4 editions published in 1993 in English and Undetermined and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

3 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Supervoorspellers : goed voorspellen is een manier van denken - en iedereen kan het leren by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

1 edition published in 2015 in Dutch and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A literature review of altruism and helping behavior by A. Miren Gonzalez( Book )

1 edition published in 1980 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Chao yu ce : yu jian wei lai de yi shu he ke xue = Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

1 edition published in 2016 in Chinese and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

Building a more intelligent enterprise by Paul J. H Schoemaker( )

1 edition published in 2017 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

 
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Audience level: 0.44 (from 0.10 for Expert pol ... to 0.91 for Superforec ...)

Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know?
Alternative Names
Philip E. Tetlock Amerikaans psycholoog

Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock US-amerikanischer Psychologe und Hochschullehrer

Tetlock, Philip

Tetlock, Philip 1954-

Tetlock, Philip E.

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-

Tetlock, Philip Eyrikson.

Tetlock, Philip Eyrikson 1954-

فیلیپه تتلک

테틀록, 필립 E

필립 테틀록

テトロック, フィリップ・E.

Languages
English (126)

German (3)

Chinese (1)

Dutch (1)

Covers
Reasoning and choice : explorations in political psychologyUnmaking the West : "what-if?" scenarios that rewrite world historyBehavior, society, and nuclear warCounterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectivesPsychology and social policyBehavior, society and nuclear warBehavior, society, and international conflictBehavior, society, and nuclear war