WorldCat Identities

Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson) 1954-

Overview
Works: 33 works in 130 publications in 2 languages and 4,662 library holdings
Genres: Counterfactual histories  Case studies  Bibliography 
Roles: Author, Editor
Classifications: JA74.5, 320.019
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by Philip E Tetlock
Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

17 editions published between 2005 and 2009 in English and held by 690 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting."--Jacket
Prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

5 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 520 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. The cleavage between the politics of race a half century ago and now is that race has become a greater dilemma than ever before. The choice is no longer between right and wrong, between the values of the American creed and a variety of irrational and self-serving beliefs. The choice now must be made among competing values, including compassion, the freedom to achieve, tolerance, the right to be judged on one's individual merits, the reach of the state, and the autonomy of the family - in a word, between the very values that have made up the American creed. This book is an attempt to contribute to a fresh understanding of prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma. It presents new lines of questions by deliberately interweaving two perspectives, the first taking up issues of race focusing on whites, the second on blacks. But viewed from either perspective, the objective is to view anew the issues of race as they are now, not as they were a generation or so ago. The contributors are drawn from several disciplines in the social sciences, and include sociologists, psychometricians, social and personality psychologists, demographers, and political scientists of several persuasions. The range of subjects covered in the book is similarly wide, including the use of group stereotypes by college students, the behavioral assessment of tolerance, cohort trends in stereotypes of blacks, the use by blacks of stereotypes, explanations of inequality, the constraints on the reactions of blacks to middle-class American values, and the bases of American thinking about racial policies
Reasoning and choice : explorations in political psychology by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

23 editions published between 1991 and 2012 in English and German and held by 516 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Contents: 1. Introduction: major themes, 2. The role of heuristics in political reasoning: a theory sketch, 3. Values under pressure: AIDS and civil liberties, 4. The principle-policy puzzle: the paradox of American racial attitudes, 5. Reasoning chains, 6. The likeability heuristic, 7. Democratic values and mass publics, 8. Ideological reasoning, 9. Information and electoral choice, 10. Stability and change in party identification: presidental to off-years, 11. The American dilemma: the role of law as a persuasive symbol, 12. Ideology and issue persuasiblity: dynamics of racial policy attitudes, 13. The new racism and the American ethos, 14. Retrospect and prospect, Notes, Bibliography, Subject and Author Index
Unmaking the West : "what-if?" scenarios that rewrite world history( Book )

10 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 376 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

10 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 356 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This work uses counterfactual conjectures to draw inferences from historical data. It proposes criteria for evaluating counterfactuals that occur in diverse methodological contexts including: comparative case studies; game theory; and statistical analysis
Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

8 editions published between 1989 and 1991 in English and held by 355 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy by National Research Council (U.S.)( Book )

8 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 326 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Psychology and social policy( Book )

7 editions published between 1991 and 1992 in English and held by 310 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society and nuclear war, volume one( Book )

6 editions published in 1989 in English and held by 17 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Mass Public Decisions About Going to War by Richard K Herrmann( )

2 editions published in 1999 in No Linguistic content and English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This research is an exploration of how dispositional and situational factors (alone and in combination) influence support among the mass public for the use of United States military force in foreign conflicts
The clash of rights : liberty, equality, and legitimacy in pluralist democracy by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

2 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 13 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually? This text highlights the inescapable conflicts of rights and values at the heart of democratic politics
Behavior, society, and international conflict by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

2 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 13 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A literature review of altruism and helping behavior by A. Miren Gonzalez( Book )

1 edition published in 1980 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

4 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
Behavior, society, and nuclear war : a series of review volumes( Book )

3 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and international conflict( Book )

3 editions published in 1993 in English and Undetermined and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The effects of inoculation, distraction and sensory deprivation on attitude change and counterarguing by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

2 editions published in 1976 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Attitudes toward civil liberties and the Canadian Charter of Rights : technical documentation( Book )

1 edition published in 1989 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

 
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Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know?
Alternative Names
Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock US-amerikanischer Psychologe und Hochschullehrer

Tetlock, Philip 1954-

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-

Tetlock, Philip Eyrikson 1954-

Languages
English (113)

German (1)

Covers
Reasoning and choice : explorations in political psychologyUnmaking the West : "what-if?" scenarios that rewrite world historyCounterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectivesBehavior, society, and nuclear warPsychology and social policyBehavior, society and nuclear war, volume oneThe clash of rights : liberty, equality, and legitimacy in pluralist democracyBehavior, society, and nuclear war : a series of review volumes