WorldCat Identities

Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson) 1954-

Overview
Works: 54 works in 200 publications in 5 languages and 6,636 library holdings
Genres: Counterfactual histories  Case studies  Bibliography 
Roles: Author, Editor, Other
Classifications: HB3730, 303.49
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by Philip E Tetlock
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

35 editions published between 2015 and 2016 in English and Chinese and held by 1,288 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--Provided by publisher
Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

22 editions published between 2005 and 2017 in English and Undetermined and held by 713 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting."--Jacket
Reasoning and choice : explorations in political psychology by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

30 editions published between 1991 and 2012 in 3 languages and held by 542 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, this book offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favour and oppose politically. Reacting against the conventional wisdom, which stresses how little attention the general public pays to political issues and the lack of consistency in their opinions, the studies presented in this book redirect attention to the processes of reasoning that can be discerned when people are confronted with choices about political issues. These studies demonstrate that ordinary people are in fact capable of reasoning dependably about political issues by the use of judgmental heuristics, even if they have only a limited knowledge of politics and of specific issues
Prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

8 editions published between 1993 and 1994 in English and held by 523 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. The cleavage between the politics of race a half century ago and now is that race has become a greater dilemma than ever before. The choice is no longer between right and wrong, between the values of the American creed and a variety of irrational and self-serving beliefs. The choice now must be made among competing values, including compassion, the freedom to achieve, tolerance, the right to be judged on one's individual merits, the reach of the state, and the autonomy of the family - in a word, between the very values that have made up the American creed. This book is an attempt to contribute to a fresh understanding of prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma. It presents new lines of questions by deliberately interweaving two perspectives, the first taking up issues of race focusing on whites, the second on blacks. But viewed from either perspective, the objective is to view anew the issues of race as they are now, not as they were a generation or so ago. The contributors are drawn from several disciplines in the social sciences, and include sociologists, psychometricians, social and personality psychologists, demographers, and political scientists of several persuasions. The range of subjects covered in the book is similarly wide, including the use of group stereotypes by college students, the behavioral assessment of tolerance, cohort trends in stereotypes of blacks, the use by blacks of stereotypes, explanations of inequality, the constraints on the reactions of blacks to middle-class American values, and the bases of American thinking about racial policies
Unmaking the West : "what-if?" scenarios that rewrite world history( Book )

11 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 385 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

5 editions published in 1989 in English and held by 374 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives( Book )

8 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 364 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy by National Research Council (U.S.)( Book )

8 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 332 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Psychology and social policy( Book )

8 editions published between 1991 and 1992 in English and held by 312 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction by Philip E Tetlock( Recording )

4 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 34 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic
Behavior, society and nuclear war by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

6 editions published between 1989 and 1991 in English and held by 28 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Mass Public Decisions About Going to War by Richard K Herrmann( )

2 editions published in 1999 in No Linguistic content and English and held by 25 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This research is an exploration of how dispositional and situational factors (alone and in combination) influence support among the mass public for the use of United States military force in foreign conflicts
Behavior, society, and international conflict( Book )

3 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 19 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Supervoorspellers : goed voorspellen is een manier van denken - en iedereen kan het leren by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

1 edition published in 2015 in Dutch and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Behavior, society, and nuclear war( Book )

3 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The clash of rights : liberty, equality, and legitimacy in pluralist democracy by Paul M Sniderman( Book )

2 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 14 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually? This text highlights the inescapable conflicts of rights and values at the heart of democratic politics
A literature review of altruism and helping behavior by A. Miren Gonzalez( Book )

1 edition published in 1980 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

El juicio político de los expertos by Philip E Tetlock( Book )

2 editions published in 2016 in Spanish and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Building a more intelligent enterprise by Paul J. H Schoemaker( )

1 edition published in 2017 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

 
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Audience level: 0.40 (from 0.08 for Expert pol ... to 0.91 for El juicio ...)

Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know?
Alternative Names
Philip E. Tetlock Amerikaans psycholoog

Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock US-amerikanischer Psychologe und Hochschullehrer

Tetlock, Philip

Tetlock, Philip 1954-

Tetlock, Philip E.

Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-

Tetlock, Philip Eyrikson.

Tetlock, Philip Eyrikson 1954-

필립 테틀록

テトロック, フィリップ・E.

Languages
English (151)

Chinese (2)

Spanish (2)

German (1)

Dutch (1)

Covers
Reasoning and choice : explorations in political psychologyUnmaking the West : "what-if?" scenarios that rewrite world historyBehavior, society, and nuclear warCounterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectivesPsychology and social policyBehavior, society and nuclear warBehavior, society, and nuclear warThe clash of rights : liberty, equality, and legitimacy in pluralist democracy