WorldCat Identities

Hodges, James S.

Overview
Works: 33 works in 104 publications in 1 language and 1,636 library holdings
Genres: Conference papers and proceedings  Textbooks 
Roles: Author, Editor
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by James S Hodges
Richly parameterized linear models : additive, time series, and spatial models using random effects by James S Hodges( )

17 editions published between 2013 and 2016 in English and held by 220 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This book covers a wide range of statistical models, including hierarchical, hierarchical generalized linear, linear mixed, dynamic linear, smoothing, spatial, and longitudinal. It presents a framework for expressing these richly parameterized models together as well as tools for exploring and interpreting the results of fitting the models to data. It extends the standard theory of linear models and illustrates the advantages and disadvantages of various theories. The book also examines surprising or undesirable results arising in the use of the models to analyze real data sets from collaborative research"--
Models and algorithms for repair parts investment and management by James S Hodges( Book )

5 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 158 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report proposes a way to think about the investments and operating decisions service maintenance depots must make, distinguishing between a long-run (investment) problem and a short-run (operating) problem. The basis of the authors' approach to both problems involves defining the value of each part or supply action so the costs of parts or supply actions can be related to their effects, thereby permitting managers to select courses of action that maximize value given the cost of the actions. For the long-term problem, the approach attributes value to the units of authorized stock in terms of the effect they have on the value of the repair pipeline: efficient choices yield a cheap repair pipeline. For the short-run problem, the approach attributes value to supply actions (e.g., speedup of delivery of due-in items) in terms of the effect they have on the availability of aircraft at the end of a specific time horizon. For each problem, the authors provide the relevant definition of value, an algorithm to maximize value for a given cost, and methods for computing value
Using value to manage repair parts : a documented briefing by Marygail K Brauner( Book )

5 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 154 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report documents a briefing that presents a method for examining the effect that various stockage policies have on the length of time weapon replaceable assemblies (WRAs) spend waiting for parts. The authors argue that the current stockage policies--which emphasize descriptors of parts and rarely include information about the end-item that needs them--likely contribute to the simultaneous problems of long repair turnaround times (TATs) and excesses of repair parts. The report discusses an algorithm which incorporates both parts descriptors and output measures and which minimizes the expected length of time an end-item spends in repair. The authors' research suggests that through effective stockage of repair parts, the Services may be able to achieve large savings from shortening the TAT at depot, which allows more end-items to be in circulation. Furthermore, the authors' evaluations suggest that their calculations can identify weapons systems where it would make sense to stock parts and those where it would not. The calculations can be used to balance investment strategies between spending money on parts and spending it on other segments of the repair pipeline
An approach to understanding the value of parts by Marygail K Brauner( Book )

4 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 151 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report proposes a way to think about the stockage decisions service maintenance depots must make. The approach involves defining the value of each part so the costs of parts can be related to their effects on fixing end-items. Very simply, if a part breaks frequently and tends to hold up the repair of an expensive end-item, then a spare is very valuable. Using the measure of value, the authors develop a rank-ordered list of repair parts: The higher it is on the list, the more valuable the part is to reducing the value of the repair pipeline. The stockage problem posed is an instance of the classic knapsack problem; the algorithm is a heuristic solution, a greedy algorithm. Simulation tests show that the method does a good job of setting authorized stockage levels. The simulations also suggest that large savings may be possible, and they identify the weapon systems for which savings are likely to accrue. The results make the case for experimenting with the method at a depot or a remanufacturing site
Uncertainty, policy analysis and statistics by James S Hodges( Book )

7 editions published between 1986 and 1988 in English and held by 135 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Is it you or your model talking? : a framework for model validation by James S Hodges( Book )

4 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 113 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report lays out a conceptual framework for validation, arguing that some models can be validated and used to predict, while others cannot be validated and may only be put to nonpredictive uses. To be validatable, a model must be observable and measurable, must exhibit constancy of structure in time, must exhibit constancy across variations in conditions not specified in the model, and must permit the collection of ample data. Nonvalidatable models can be used as a bookkeeping device, as an aid in selling an idea of which the model is but an illustration, as a training aid to induce a particular behavior, as part of an automatic management system whose efficacy is not evaluated by using the model as if it were a true representation, as an aid to communication, as a vehicle for a fortiori arguments, and as an aid to thinking and hypothesizing. The report shows that the appropriate form of model quality assurance depends fundamentally on how the model is used
Onward through the fog : uncertainty and management adaptation in systems analysis and design by James S Hodges( Book )

5 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 107 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings--omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations
Six (or so) things you can do with a bad model by James S Hodges( Book )

7 editions published in 1991 in English and Undetermined and held by 86 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Many models used in policy or systems analysis either cannot be validated in any fully adequate sense, such as by comparing them with actual data, or could adequately be validated but have not been. For example, in the area of combat analysis, the central models are arguably almost entirely unvalidated and most will never be susceptible to adequate validation. Nevertheless, such models are often used and can be used fruitfully, even though we have no theory for how to use them or how to interpret and place value on the results they produce. This paper takes a step toward providing such a theory by focusing on the logic that should govern the use of inadequately validated models and the costs and benefits of using them. To this end, it identifies and evaluates six legitimate uses to which such models can be put
Utilizing the data from the Army's National Training Center : analytical plan by Robert A Levine( Book )

6 editions published in 1986 in English and held by 81 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This Note describes the Army's operations at its National Training Center (NTC) at Fort Irwin, California, and ways in which the data collected during those operations can be used to derive lessons about Army doctrine, training, and weapon systems. The discussion of operations at the NTC includes descriptions of the training conducted there, the facilities for training and data collection, and the types of data actually or potentially available. As a laboratory for deriving lessons, the NTC has unique advantages and disadvantages. These have implications for using the NTC experience to formulate and test hypotheses. In particular, the authors emphasize the importance of testing the results of formal analytic procedures against the experience and intuition of NTC and other military personnel
Modeling the demand for spare parts : estimating the variance-to-mean ratio and other issues by James S Hodges( Book )

5 editions published in 1985 in English and held by 77 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Mathematical models are commonly used to study the performance of the Air Force's spare parts supply and repair systems. But accurate evaluations of supply policies are not possible without accurate models of the supply system, and models that understate the variability in the supply system will bias evaluations in favor of policies that rely on accurate predictions of part failures. This Note examines the model for part failures used in the Rand Corporation Supply System model, Dyna-METRIC. The ability to predict levels of parts failures is strongly affected by at least two types of uncertainty: about the numbers of failures that will occur assuming the model is correct, and about the adequacy of the model as an approximation of the process generating parts failures. The author suggests that a model that allows more variability, such as a negative binomial model, would be more appropriate for dealing with the first type of uncertainty, and the second type can be accommodated partly by using models with more parameters
Superfund remedial program improvement options : evaluation design by Christopher W Myers( Book )

6 editions published in 1986 in English and Undetermined and held by 74 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Assessing the accuracy of normal approximations by James S Hodges( Book )

6 editions published between 1985 and 1988 in English and held by 73 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics : Volume IV by Constantine Gatsonis( )

1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 51 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This third volume of case studies presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, emphasizing the scientific context. The papers were presented and discussed at a workshop at Carnegie-Mellon University in October, 1995. In this volume, which is dedicated to the memory of Morrie Groot, econometric applications are highlighted. There are six invited papers, each with accompanying invited discussion, and nine contributed papers
Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Volume II by Constantine Gatsonis( )

1 edition published in 1995 in English and held by 50 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Like its predecessor, this second volume presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, each of which emphasizes the scientific context of the problems it attempts to solve. The emphasis of this volume is on biomedical applications. These papers were presented at a workshop at Carnegie-Mellon University in 1993
Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics by Constantine Gatsonis( )

1 edition published in 1993 in English and held by 49 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The past few years have witnessed dramatic advances in computational methods for Bayesian inference. As a result, Bayesian approaches to solving a wide variety of problems in data analysis and decision-making have become feasible. The purpose of this volume is to present several detailed examples of applications of Bayesian methods. The emphasis of each article is on the scientific or technological context of the problem being solved, and much background material is provided to complete the description of the analysis. This collection illustrates the ways in which Bayesian methods are permeating statistical practice. Noteworthy in the articles are the construction of explicit and conceptually simple models, the use of information other than the data under analysis, and the representation of uncertainty from various sources in the model. Consequently, many researchers will find this collection an illuminating survey of Bayesian methods in practice, and both lecturers and students will be able to learn a great deal through study of these examples
Airport growth and safety : a study of the external risks of Schiphol Airport and possible safety-enhancement measures( )

1 edition published in 1993 in English and held by 12 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

On October 4, 1992, an El Al freight aircraft crashed into an apartment complex near Amsterdam after taking off from Schiphol airport. This disaster generated sufficient public arousal that the Netherlands government deemed it necessary to make a careful reexamination of the external risks of the airport prior to proceeding with expansion plans. RAND's European American Center was asked to do this study. A six-month survey and analysis of the safety issues performed by RAND using a multidisciplinary team of risk experts, aviation consultants, statisticians, and policy analysts. Both quantitative risk estimates and public opinions of airport risks and benefits played importantly in the analysis. Recommendations included safety management changes, safety incident tracking and better public communication. Two reports, "Airport Growth and Safety: A Study of the External Risks of Schiphol Airport and Possible Safety Enhancement Measures," and "Airport Growth and Safety, Executive Summary of the Schiphol Project," were completed under the project
Case studies in Bayesian statistics, vol. 2 by Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics( Book )

3 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Case studies in Bayesian statistics( )

2 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Applying the national training center experience : artillery targeting accuracy by Martin Goldsmith( )

3 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This Note describes a study that examined the accuracy of simulated artillery fires during force-on-force engagements at the National Training Center (NTC). The authors found that only about one-third of artillery missions were either effective or suppressive. Available data show that artillery observers using only map, compass, and binoculars cannot consistently achieve accurate first-round fire-for-effect. NTC data show that initial fire plans are likewise insufficiently accurate. The authors make recommendations for doctrinal and procedural improvements and for added training equipment
Credible uses of the distributed interactive simulation (DIS) system( )

2 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) system is an ambitious effort to take advantage of the tools of the information age to help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the U.S. military services. Defined broadly, the DIS system is an infrastructure for linking simulations, simulators and live military systems of various types from any of the U.S. military services at multiple locations to create realistic, complex, virtual 'worlds' for the simulation of highly interactive activities. It poses serious challenges in the areas of technology, interservice coordination, and verification, validation, and accreditation (VV & A). This report concentrates on the validation challenge and presents a framework that encompasses all of the potential uses of the DIS system. It then illuminates the validation or credibility requirements for each type of use. Because of the breadth of the potential uses of DIS, the resulting framework is general enough to address any military application of models and simulations
 
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Credible uses of the distributed interactive simulation (DIS) system
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Hodges, James S.

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English (89)