WorldCat Identities
Fri Mar 21 17:13:03 2014 UTClccn-n891186610.76Specificity and the macroeconomics of restructuring /0.880.93Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America : a view and three case studies /47814029Ricardo_J._Caballeron 891186612713028Caballero G., Ricardo 1959-Caballero G., Ricardo (Caballero Gibbons)Caballero G., Ricardo J. 1959-Caballero Gibbons, RicardoCaballero, Ricardo 1959-Caballero, Ricardo Jorge 1959-Gibbons, Ricardo Caballeronc-national bureau of economic researchNational Bureau of Economic Researchlccn-no99012963Krishnamurthy, Arvindlccn-no95014705Hammour, Mohamad L.lccn-n79139286National Bureau of Economic Researchlccn-n93040329Engel, Eduardohnrlccn-no2004080962Farhi, Emmanuellccn-no2003098351Panageas, Stavroslccn-no99010994Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivierlccn-nr92027803Bertola, Giuseppelccn-no93035297Lyons, Richard K.hnrCaballero, Ricardo J.Case studiesResource allocation--Mathematical modelsTechnological innovations--Economic aspects--Mathematical modelsCapital investments--Econometric modelsDeveloping countriesUnited StatesFinancial crises--Econometric modelsEconomic historyInternational liquidityCapital movementsFinancial crisesCapital market--Econometric modelsCredit--Econometric modelsInvestments, Foreign--Econometric modelsInterest rates--Econometric modelsEquilibrium (Economics)--Econometric modelsEmployment (Economic theory)MicroeconomicsCapital investments--Mathematical modelsRent (Economic theory)--Mathematical modelsLabor economicsEconomic policyMexicoLatin AmericaArgentinaChileManufacturesMacroeconomics--Mathematical modelsEmployment (Economic theory)--Mathematical modelsFactors of production--Mathematical modelsIndustrial procurement--Mathematical modelsEconomic stabilization--Mathematical modelsBusiness cycles--Mathematical modelsDebt equity conversionLoans, ForeignIndustrial productivity--Econometric modelsFactors of production--Econometric modelsBusiness cycles--Econometric modelsStructural unemployment--Econometric modelsValuation--Mathematical modelsCorporations--Finance--Mathematical modelsTechnological innovationsResource allocationOverhead costs--Mathematical modelsIndustrial policyJob creationIndustrial organizationProduct obsolescenceFranceInvestments--Econometric modelsIndustrial organization (Economic theory)195919831984198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220135408155806339HB142011ocn073926775book20070.76Caballero, Ricardo JSpecificity and the macroeconomics of restructuringA proposal that the notion of specificity-the idea that factors of production are not interchangeable-can provide a unified framework to analyze and understand a wide variety of macroeconomic phenomena stemming from the transactional environment and micro+-+871885717514022ocn040782308book19980.88Caballero, Ricardo JEmerging market crises : an asset markets perspectiveAlthough internal policy mismanagements can be cited in most recent emerging market crises, they seldom account fully for the severity of these crises. The reluctance of international investors to provide the resources that would limit the extent of the reversal almost invariably plays a key role in bringing a previously (over?)-heated economy to a costly halt. Domestic assets experience dramatic depreciation and otherwise solvent investment projects and production, especially in the nontradeables sector, find no financiers and are wastefully shutdown. Ultimately, the reason for this breakdown of a country's access to international capital markets must lie in the inadequacy (real or perceived) of its international collateral. We build a framework where this insufficiency and its consequences stem from microeconomic contractual problems. Fire sales of domestic assets naturally arise as a result of desperate competition for scarce international collateral. This begs the question of why the private sector does not take steps to ensure sufficient international collateral when crises are likely. The answer lies in the presence of a pecuniary externality. We show that contractual problems also lead to a problem of insufficient domestic collateral, which restricts the transfer of surplus arising from the use of international collateral between the users and providers of this international collateral. The interaction between domestic and international collateral also sheds light on when pre-crisis capital flows ought to be regulated and on whether there is scope for currency support measures during the crisis or not9919ocn063515933book20060.84Caballero, Ricardo JAn equilibrium model of "global imbalances" and low interest ratesThree of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics -- the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio -- appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and models. Instead, in this paper we provide a model that rationalizes these facts as an equilibrium outcome of two observed forces: a) potential growth differentials among different regions of the world and, b) hetero-geneity in these regions' capacity to generate financial assets from real investments. In extensions of the basic model, we also generate exchange rate and FDI excess returns which are broadly consistent with the recent trends in these variables. More generally, the framework is flexible enough to shed light on a range of scenarios in a global equilibrium environment9917ocn042751953book19990.86Caballero, Ricardo JThe cost of recessions revisited : a reverse-liquidationist viewThe observation that liquidations are concentrated in recessions has long been the subject of controversy. One view holds that liquidations are beneficial in that they result in increased restructuring. Another view holds that liquidations are privately inefficient and essentially wasteful. This paper proposes an alternative perspective. Based on a combination of theory and empirical evidence on gross job flows and on financial and labor market rents, we find that, cumulatively, recessions result in reduced restructuring, and that this is likely to be socially costly once we consider inefficiencies on both the creation and destruction margins9110ocn038874464book19980.92Caballero, Ricardo JNonlinear aggregate investment dynamics : theory and evidenceIn this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S, s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, we find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data9112ocn040309264book19980.88Caballero, Ricardo JImproper churn : social costs and macroeconomic consequencesThis paper assembles elements that are essential in forming an integral picture of the way a churning' economy functions and of the disruptions caused by transactional difficulties in labor and financial markets. We couch our analysis in a stochastic equilibrium model anchored with US evidence on gross factor flows and on rents in worker and firm income. We develop a social accounting framework to measure the costs of transactional impediments. We calculate the average social loss associated with structural unemployment and low productivity -- due to technological sclerosis' and a scrambling' of productivity rankings in entry and exit decisions. We also estimate the loss from a recession. An additional forty percent to the traditional unemployment cost is due to reduced productivity and is determined by the recession's cumulative effect on the economy's churn rate. Although a recessionary shock increases the economy's turbulence' at impact, semi-structural VAR evidence from US manufacturing indicates that, cumulatively, it results in a chill' -- which is costly in an economy that suffers from sclerosis9111ocn035736101book19950.90Caballero, Ricardo JThe macroeconomics of specificitySpecific quasi-rents build up in a wide variety of economic relationships, and are exposed to opportunism unless fully protected by contract. The recognition that such contracts are often incomplete has yielded major insights into the organization of microeconomic exchange. Rent appropriation, we argue, also has important macroeconomic implications. Resources are underutilized, factor markets are segmented, production suffers from technological with creation, recessions are excessively sharp, and expansions run into bottlenecks. While, depending on the nature of the shock, expansions may require reinforcement or stabilization, recessions should always be softened. In the long run, institutions, such as those governing capital-labor relations, may evolve to alleviate the problem by balancing appropriation. Technology choice will also be affected, with the appropriated factor partially appropriation as manifested in the role capital-labor substitution played in the rise of European unemployment8914ocn044674378book20000.93Caballero, Ricardo JMacroeconomic volatility in Latin America : a view and three case studiesCase studiesAfter decades of trial, error, and occasional regress the pieces of a successful Latin American economic model can be seen scattered among the leading economies of the region. The most traditional macroeconomic maladies of the emerging world - such as chronic fiscal imbalances and monetary gimmicks are gradually being left behind. Many of these economies have made significant progress in their regulatory and supervisory frameworks and, at times, have been leaders beyond Latin American boundaries in allowing private sector co-participation in a wide array of ex-public sector activities. Despite these significant efforts, several structural sources of volatility remain, and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise better economic environment. In this paper I review these sources through the recent experiences of Argentina, Chile and Mexico8713ocn031618462book19940.92Caballero, Ricardo JExplaining investment dynamics in U.S. manufacturing : a generalized (S, s) approachIn this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard (S, s) bands, firms' optimal adjustment policies are probabilistic, with a probability of adjusting (adjustment hazard) that grows smoothly with firms' disequilibria. Depending upon the specification of the distribution of fixed adjustment costs, the adjustment hazards approach encompasses models ranging from the very non-linear (S, s) model to the linear partial adjustment model. Except for the latter extreme, the processes for aggregate investment obtained from adding up the actions of firms subject to aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, is highly non-linear. Estimating the aggregate model by maximum likelihood, we find clear evidence supporting non-linear models over linear ones for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment. For a given sequence of aggregate shocks, the nonlinear model estimated generates brisker expansions and - to a lesser extent - sharper contractions than its linear counterpart. These features fit well the observed positive skewness and large kurtosis of U.S. manufacturing sectoral investment/capital ratios8611ocn032372123book19940.92Caballero, Ricardo JAggregate employment dynamics : building from microeconomic evidenceThis paper studies quarterly employment flows of approximately 10,000 large U.S. manufacturing establishments during 1972:1-1980:4. After estimating the extent of short run microeconomic substitution between employment and hours per worker (hours-week), we construct measures of the path of the deviation between actual and desired employment based on the observed behavior of establishments' hours-week. These deviations are then used as the state variables upon which units decide their employment adjustments (microeconomic policy). Using this framework we find that: (i) Microeconomic employment adjustment policies are non-linear, with firms adjusting to large deviations proportionally more than to small ones; (ii) Employment adjustments are often either large or nil, suggesting the presence of non-convexities in the adjustment cost technologies; (iii) 60 to 90 % of aggregate employment fluctuations is due to changes in the cross sectional distribution of employment deviations, while the rest is due to microeconomic policy changes; (iv) Most of the net aggregate employment fluctuations from changes in the cross sectional distribution are accounted for by aggregate shocks, despite significant fluctuations in the distribution of idiosyncratic shocks and the marked countercyclical nature of their second moment(i.e. reallocation shocks) (v) Similarly, most of the net aggregate employment fluctuations due to microeconomic policy changes are accounted for by aggregate shocks; (vi) Aggregate shocks are also the dominant source of job destruction, but account for less than half of fluctuations in job creation; (vii) A simple parametric version of the aggregate model suggested by the microeconomic nonlinearities shown above has a mean square error 50% lower than its linear counterpart's8512ocn037970475book19970.90Caballero, Ricardo JJobless growth : appropriability, factor substitution, and unemploymentA central determinant of the political economy of capital-labor relations is the appropriability of specific quasi-rents." This paper is concerned with the general-equilibrium interaction of appropriability and characteristics of technology namely, the embodiment of technology in capital and capital-labor substitutability in the technological menu. Technological embodiment means that the supply of capital is effectively much less elastic in the short than in the long run, and is therefore more exposed to appropriability; technology choice implies that an attempt at appropriating capital will induce a substitution away from labor in the long run, and constitutes a mechanism to thwart appropriation. Shifts in European labor relations in the last three decades offer a good laboratory to explore the empirical relevance of those mechanisms. The evolution of the labor share, the profit rate, the capital/output ratio, and unemployment which we examine more particularly in the case of France appears highly supportive8411ocn044674780book20000.93Caballero, Ricardo JDollarization of liabilities : underinsurance and domestic financial underdevelopmentWhile there is still much disagreement on the causes underlying recent emerging markets' crises, one factor that most observers have agreed upon is that contracting dollar' (foreign currency) denominated external debt as opposed to domestic currency debt created balance sheet mismatches that led to bankruptcies and dislocations that amplified downturns. Much of the analysis of the currency-balance sheet channel' hinges on the assumption that companies contract dollar denominated debt. Yet there has been little systematic inquiry into why companies must or choose to take on dollar debt. In this paper we cast the problem as one of microeconomic underinsurance with respect to country-wide aggregate shocks. Denominating external debt in domestic currency is equivalent to contracting the same amount of dollar-debt, complemented with insurance against shocks that depreciate the equilibrium exchange rate. The presence of country-level international financial constraints justify the purchase of such insurance even if all agents are risk neutral. However, if domestic financial constraints also exist, domestics will undervalue the social contribution of contracting insurance against country-wide shocks. Foreign lenders will reinforce the underinsurance problem by reducing their participation in domestic financial markets8311ocn044512758book20000.93Caballero, Ricardo JInternational liquidity management : sterilization policy in illiquid financial marketsDuring the booms that precede crises in emerging economies, policy makers often struggle to limit capital flows and their expansionary consequences. The main policy tool for this task is sterilization - essentially a swap of international reserves for public bonds. However, there is an extensive debate on the effectiveness of this policy, with many arguing that it may be counterproductive once the (over- ) reaction of the private sector is considered. But what forces account for the private sector's reaction remain largely unexplained. In this paper we provide a model to discuss these issues. We emphasize the international liquidity management aspect of sterilization over the traditional monetary one, a re-focus that seems warranted when the main concern is external crisis prevention. We first demonstrate that policies to smooth expansion in anticipation of downturns can be Pareto improving in economies where domestic financial markets are underdeveloped. We then discuss the implementation and effectiveness of this policy via sterilization. The greatest risk of policy arises in situations where policy is most needed - that is, when financial markets are illiquid. Our mechanism is akin to the implicit bailout' problem, although the central bank acts non-selectively and only intervenes through open markets in our model. Illiquidity replaces corruption and ineptitude. In addition to an appreciation of the currency and the emergence of a quasi-fiscal deficit, the private sector's reaction to sterilization may lead to an expansion rather than the desired contraction in aggregate demand or nontradeables investment and to a bias toward short term capital inflows. The main insights extend to international liquidity management issues more generally8311ocn030830486book19940.92Caballero, Ricardo JOn the timing and efficiency of creative destructionThis paper analyzes the timing, pace and efficiency of the on- going job reallocation that results from product and process innovation. There are strong reasons why an efficient economy ought to concentrate both job creation and destruction during cyclical downturns, when the opportunity cost of reallocation is lowest. Malfunctioning labor markets can disrupt this synchronized pattern and decouple creation and destruction. Moreover, irrespective of whether workers are too strong or too weak, labor market inefficiencies generally lead to technological 'sclerosis, ' characterized by excessively slow renovation. Government incentives to production may alleviate high unemployment in this economy, but at the cost of exacerbating sclerosis. Creation incentives, on the contrary, increase the pace of reallocation. We show how an optimal combination of both types of policies can restore economic efficiency8312ocn034657430book19960.92Caballero, Ricardo JFixed costs : the demise of marginal qThe standard version of q theory, in which investment is positively related to marginal q, breaks down in the presence of fixed costs of adjustment. With fixed costs, investment is a non-monotonic function of q. Therefore its inverse, which is the traditional investment function, does not exist. Depending upon auxiliary assumptions, the correlation between investment and marginal q can be either positive or negative. Given certain homogeneity assumptions, a version of the theory based on average q still holds, although under the same assumptions profits and sales perform as well as average q. More generally, q is no longer a sufficient statistic8210ocn034578685book19960.92Caballero, Ricardo JThe "fundamental transformation" in macroeconomicsWhen factors enter into joint-production, they typically develop a degree of specificity with respect to each other. It is well known that, when combined with contracting difficulties, specificity gives rise to a Williamsonian 'Fundamental Transformation' from an ex-ante competitive relationship to an ex-post bilateral monopoly. The macroeconomic consequences of widespread specificity are far-reaching. Specificity results in misallocation, underutilization, and unemployment of the economy's productive factors; it hampers growth by depressing the incentives to replace what is outdated and to fully utilize the economy's resources; it disrupts macroeconomic adjustment by inducing a wedge between timid creation and excessive destruction of the old system; and it exacerbates downturns by èlastifying' the cyclical response of inelastic factors8210ocn033182921book19950.92Caballero, Ricardo JOn the ills of adjustmentWe analyze market impediments to the process of structural adjustment. We focus on incomplete-contract inefficiencies in the transactions between workers and firms that render the quasi-rents from 'specific' investment appropriable. During adjustment, the result is a depressed rate of creation of the new productive structure and excessive destruction of the old one, leading to an employment crisis. Moreover, appropriability weakens the incentives for extensive restructuring and results in a 'sclerotic' productive structure. An adequate managed- adjustment program combines vigorous creation incentives in the expanding sector with measures to support employment in the contracting one. In contrast, the common prescription of gradualism does not act as an effective 'synchronizer' of creation and destruction, for it can only reduce destruction by also reducing an already depressed creation rate8111ocn047920711book20010.92Caballero, Ricardo JSmoothing sudden stopsEmerging economies are exposed to severe and sudden shortages of international financial resources. Yet domestic agents seem not to undertake enough precautions against these sudden stops. Following our previous work, we highlight in this paper the central role played by limited domestic development in ex-ante (insurance) and ex-post (spot) financial markets in generating this collective undervaluation of external resources and insurance. Within this structure, this paper studies several canonical policies to counteract the external underinsurance. We do this by first solving for the optimal mechanism given the constraints imposed by limited domestic financial development, and then considering the main - in terms of the model and practical relevance - implementations of this mechanism. Keywords: External Shocks, domestic and international collateral, underinsurance, credit lines, liquidity requirements, asset market intervention8112ocn044991864book20000.93Caballero, Ricardo JCreative destruction and development : institutions, crises, and restructuringThere is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living. Generically, underdeveloped and politicized institutions are a major impediment to a well-functioning creative destruction process, and result in sluggish creation, technological sclerosis, ' and spurious reallocation. Those ills reflect the macroeconomic consequences of contracting failures in the presence of sunk investments. Recurrent crises are another major obstacle to creative destruction. The common inference that increased liquidations during crises result in increased restructuring is unwarranted. Indications are, to the contrary, that crises freeze the restructuring process and that this is associated with the tight financial-market conditions that follow. This productivity cost of recessions adds to the traditional costs of resource under-utilization8111ocn038189022book19970.90Caballero, Ricardo JAggregate investmentThe 90s have witnessed a revival in economists' interest and hope of explaining" aggregate and microeconomic investment behavior. New theories, better econometric" procedures, and more detailed panel data sets are behind this movement. Much of the progress" has occurred at the level of microeconomic theories and evidence; however aggregation and general equilibrium aspects of the investment problem also has been significant." The concept of sunk costs is at the center of modern theories. The implications of these costs for" investment go well beyond the neoclassical response to the irreversible-technological friction" they represent, for they can also lead to first order inefficiencies when interacting with" informational and contractual problems+-+8718857175+-+8718857175Fri Mar 21 15:53:17 EDT 2014batch41701