WorldCat Identities

Arquilla, John

Works: 82 works in 245 publications in 3 languages and 12,388 library holdings
Genres: History  Case studies 
Roles: Author, Editor
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by John Arquilla
Networks and netwars : the future of terror, crime, and militancy by John Arquilla( Book )

22 editions published in 2001 in 3 languages and held by 660 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Netwar-like cyberwar-describes a new spectrum of conflict that is emerging in the wake of the information revolution. Netwar includes conflicts waged, on the one hand, by terrorists, criminals, gangs, and ethnic extremists; and by civil-society activists (such as cyber activists or WTO protestors) on the other. What distinguishes netwar is the networked organizational structure of its practitioners-with many groups actually being leaderless-and their quickness in coming together in swarming attacks. To confront this new type of conflict, it is crucial for governments, military, and law enforcement to begin networking themselves
The Reagan imprint : ideas in American foreign policy from the collapse of communism to the war on terror by John Arquilla( Book )

6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 534 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Contrary to widely held views of Ronald Reagan as a reflexive man of action, John Arquilla's sharply revisionist study argues that he was drawn to and driven by ideas. In Mr. Arquilla's view, Reagan during his presidency articulated important new concepts that fundamentally reshaped American foreign policy. He saw the effort simply to contain Soviet expansion as too defensive in nature, so he replaced it with a doctrine designed to help others free themselves from totalitarian rule. He objected to the notion of mutual nuclear deterrence on practical and ethical grounds, a stand that led him to negotiate arms reductions as well as explore the possibility of missile defense. On these issues, as Mr. Arquilla shows, Reagan overturned a long-standing consensus of public and expert opinion, helping achieve a favorable end to the cold war and the arms race that came with it. Yet there were also areas in which Reagan s policies played out less successfullyhis inattention to the consequences of nuclear proliferation by smaller powers like Pakistan; his indecision in launching a preventive war against terrorism in the mid-1980swith consequences that continue to haunt us today
In Athena's camp : preparing for conflict in the information age by John Arquilla( Book )

17 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 401 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The information revolution--which is as much an organizational as a technological revolution--is transforming the nature of conflict across the spectrum: from open warfare, to terrorism, crime, and even radical social activism. The era of massed field armies is passing, because the new information and communications systems are increasing the lethality of quite small units that can call in deadly, precise missile fire almost anywhere, anytime. In social conflicts, the Internet and other media are greatly empowering individuals and small groups to influence the behavior of states. Whether in military or social conflicts, all protagonists will soon be developing new doctrines, strategies, and tactics for "swarming" their opponents--with weapons or words, as circumstances require. Preparing for conflict in such a world will require shifting to new forms of organization, particularly the versatile, hardy, all-channel network. This shift will prove difficult for states and professional militaries that remain bastions of hierarchy, bound to resist institutional redesign. They will make the shift as they realize that information and knowledge are becoming the key elements of power. This implies, among other things, that Mars, the old brute-force god of war, must give way to Athena, the well-armed goddess of wisdom. Accepting Athena as the patroness of this information age represents a first step not only for preparing for future conflicts, but also for preventing them
Insurgents, raiders, and bandits : how masters of irregular warfare have shaped our world by John Arquilla( Book )

6 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 320 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"From the small bands of wilderness warriors who battled in 18th-century North America to the "Chechen Lion," and the contemporary conflict in Chechnya, John Arquilla chronicles the deadly careers of the greatest masters of irregular warfare over the past 250 years. Their impact on events has been profound, with irregulars playing crucial roles in such epochal struggles as the Anglo-French duel for North America, the defeat of Napoleon in Spain and Russia, the American Civil War, both world wars, and the current era of terrorism. Seeing the world through the eyes of guerrillas, raiders and bandits, Arquilla has written an alternative history that provides lessons for warfare in our time that must not be ignored."--Publisher's web site
Worst enemy : the reluctant transformation of the American military by John Arquilla( Book )

5 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 255 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Afghan endgames : strategy and policy choices for America's longest war by Hy S Rothstein( Book )

12 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 248 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Experts in the fields of history, strategy, international relations, anthropology, ethics, and mass communications asses the prospects for peace and security in Afghanistan; they debate what would best serve US interests, and to provide a range of policy options for US leaders to consider in 2012 and beyond
The advent of netwar by John Arquilla( Book )

8 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 214 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The information revolution is leading to the rise of network forms of organization, with unusual implications for how societies are organized and conflicts are conducted. "Netwar" is an emerging consequence. The term refers to societal conflict and crime, short of war, in which the antagonists are organized more as sprawling "leaderless" networks than as tight-knit hierarchies. Many terrorists, criminals, fundamentalists, and ethno-nationalists are developing netwar capabilities. A new generation of revolutionaries and militant radicals is also emerging, with new doctrines, strategies, and technologies that support their reliance on network forms of organization. Netwar may be the dominant mode of societal conflict in the 21st century. These conclusions are implied by the evolution of societies, according to a framework presented in this RAND study. The emergence of netwar raises the need to rethink strategy and doctrine to conduct counternetwar. Traditional notions of war and low-intensity conflict as a sequential process based on massing, maneuvering, and fighting will likely prove inadequate to cope with nonlinear, swarm-like, information-age conflicts in which societal and military elements are closely intermingled
Swarming & the future of conflict by John Arquilla( Book )

6 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 204 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Swarming is a seemingly amorphous, but deliberately structured, coordinated, strategic way to perform military strikes from all directions. It employs a sustainable pulsing of force and/or fire that is directed from both close-in and stand-off positions. It will work best--perhaps it will only work--if it is designed mainly around the deployment of myriad, small, dispersed, networked maneuver units. This calls for an organizational redesign--involving the creation of platoon-like "pods" joined in company-like "clusters"--That would keep but retool the most basic military unit structures. It is similar to the corporate redesign principle of "flattening," which often removes or redesigns middle layers of management. This has proven successful in the ongoing revolution in business affairs and may prove equally useful in the military realm. From command and control of line units to logistics, profound shifts will have to occur to nurture this new "way of war." This study examines the benefits--and also the costs and risks--of engaging in such serious doctrinal change. The emergence of a military doctrine based on swarming pods and clusters requires that defense policymakers develop new approaches to connectivity and control and achieve a new balance between the two. Far more than traditional approaches to battle, swarming clearly depends upon robust information flows. Securing these flows, therefore, can be seen as a necessary condition for successful swarming
Dubious battles : aggression, defeat, and the international system by John Arquilla( Book )

11 editions published between 1992 and 2017 in English and held by 199 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A decision modeling perspective on U.S.-Cuba relations by John Arquilla( Book )

5 editions published in 1993 in English and Undetermined and held by 160 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This monograph forms part of a larger study of Cuba in the post-Cold War world. It focuses primarily on understanding and influencing Fidel Castro, although its findings should also have value for studies that examine transitional paths away from Castroism. The analytic framework employed in this study recognizes that an emphasis on capabilities rather than intentions will likely remain a predominant element in policy planning. Nevertheless, it suggests that understanding an opponent's reasoning can generate useful, often counterintuitive insights, allowing for the pursuit of optimal strategies under conditions of uncertainty
Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein by Paul K Davis( Book )

5 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 150 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This study applies an experimental interdisciplinary methodology (Davis and Arquilla, 1991) for understanding the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict and for using that understanding to develop well-hedged and adaptive deterrent strategies. First, we develop alternative models of Saddam Hussein's reasoning over the period of February 1990 to February 1991, using only information available during the crisis rather than exploiting the benefits of hindsight. We then explain Saddam's behavior retrospectively and argue that having developed and worked with the alternative models during the crisis could have materially improved the formulation of U.S. strategy. We next use the models to analyze such speculative questions as 'could we have deterred Saddam?' and to suggest more general conclusions about appropriate strategies of deterrence in future crisis. Finally, we recommend major changes in the processes by which the U.S. prepares for contingencies in peacetime and deliberates about strategy as a crisis develops
Modeling decisionmaking of potential proliferators as part of developing counterproliferation strategies by John Arquilla( Book )

3 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 146 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Counterproliferation strategies should be informed by an objective understanding of the motivations of proliferating states. This report applies an exploratory methodology for developing alternative models of the reasoning of national leaders considering acquisition of weapons of mass destruction. It can be used for analysis or as a mechanism for group discussion. It assumes that the leaders in question strive for rational decisionmaking by considering the most-likely, best-case, and worst-case outcomes of various options. That is, they reflect at least limited rationality by considering a range of options and by looking at the upside and downside of those options, as well as best-estimate outcomes. The models allow ample opportunity for "errors," however, by recognizing problems associated with recognizing and evaluating options. They also recognize that psychological and organizational factors can introduce biases and other types of misjudgment. The approach draws on Davis-Arquilla methods developed earlier for use in crisis work
The three circles of war : understanding the dynamics of conflict in Iraq by Heather S Gregg( Book )

6 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 145 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The conflict in Iraq is characterized by three faces of war: interstate conflict, civil war, and insurgency. The Coalition's invasion of Iraq in March 2003 began as an interstate war. No sooner had Saddam Hussein been successfully deposed, however, than U.S.-led forces faced a lethal insurgency. After Sunni al Qaeda in Iraq bombed the Shia al-Askari Shrine in 2006, the burgeoning conflict took on the additional element of civil war with sectarian violence between the Sunni and the Shia. The most effective strategies in a war as complicated as the three-level conflict in Iraq are intertwined and complementary, according to the editors of this volume. For example, the "surge" in U.S. troops in 2007 went beyond an increase in manpower; the mission had changed, giving priority to public security. This new direction also simultaneously addressed the insurgency as well as the civil war by forging new, trusting relationships between Americans and Iraqis and between Sunni and Shia. This book has broad implications for future decisions about war and peace in the twenty-first century
Predicting military innovation by Jeffrey A Isaacson( Book )

5 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 135 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Although military technology is increasingly available and affordable, not all states have the capacity to improve military effectiveness by acquiring hardware. Integrative difficulties--in command structures, doctrine and tactics, training, and support--are common in the developing world, and many states will have to find some level of innovation to overcome such difficulties if they are to use military technologies effectively. This annotated briefing documents a research effort aimed at understanding and predicting how militaries may improve their battlefield effectiveness. The briefing first analyzes military innovation conceptually and then formulates a framework for predicting the likelihood of innovative success. The research synthesizes a broad literature on innovation and provides a useful tool for assessing future military developments
Information strategy and warfare : a guide to theory and practice( Book )

12 editions published between 2007 and 2009 in English and Spanish and held by 126 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This book discusses the decisive role that information and information strategy now plays in modern warfare. Information strategy is developed here as a new kind of power that can stand on its own as a distinct, increasingly influential tool of statecraft." "Three principal themes are explored in this volume. First, the rise of the "information domain" itself, and of information strategy as an equal partner alongside traditional military strategy. Second, the need to consider the organizational implications of information strategy. Third, the realm of what has been called "information operations." Throughout this book, information operations is portrayed as comprising all manner of conduits for information transmission, but also as being critically dependent upon good content."--Jacket
From Troy to Entebbe : special operations in ancient and modern times( Book )

5 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 115 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Historisk gennemgang af udviklingen og brugen af specialoperationer
Extended deterrence, compellence, and the "old world order" by John Arquilla( Book )

6 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 103 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This Note is the companion piece to earlier work, which described a methodology for analyzing and gaming opponent reasoning and reported on its employment during and after the recent conflict with Iraq. It examines four crises in which either British or U.S. interests were threatened, testing the key decisionmakers for the "limited rationality" and for the incrementalist or more goal-driven approach to risk taking. It also identifies the policy implications of these case studies at both the broad strategic and the crisis-specific levels, and evaluates the relative effectiveness of the military and economic tools of political coercion. The workhorse of British and U.S. policies has been the strategy of extended deterrence. The authors explore the disjunction between the theory and practice of extended deterrence in each of the cases they survey. Aside from the decisionmaking problems caused by time constraints and imperfect information, there are powerful general psychological influences--of which frustration and positive or negative feelings about one's current situation are the most important. Also, aggressors routinely underestimate the effects of their opponents' maritime capabilities for blockade, strategic lift, and bombardment, suggesting that a form of "analytic bias" is present. The policy implications are (1) U.S. decisionmakers and their staff organizations must habituate themselves to the practice of carrying along multiple models of opponent reasoning; and (2) in some cases, the United States must be prepared to give unambiguous political and military warning in the face of looming crisis, necessitating bilateral or multilateral treaties with friendly nations in areas of vital interest
Thinking about opponent behavior in crisis and conflict : a generic model for analysis and group discussion by Paul K Davis( Book )

7 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 93 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper combines insights from strategic analysis, cognitive psychology, gaming, and artificial intelligence modeling to describe a theory and concrete methodology for thinking about the likely and possible reasoning of opponents before or during crisis and conflict. The methodology is intended for use in analysis and defense planning, especially planning for possible limited contingencies. We anticipate that the methodology can be employed in group discussions with policymakers and senior officers, not merely at the analyst-to- analyst level. It is part of a study of peacetime contingency planning and crisis decisionmaking, the objectives of which are (a) to develop a conceptual approach for thinking about the likely and possible reasoning of opponents before or during crisis and conflict, (b) to evaluate the approach against historical cases (including the recent crisis in Iraq), and (c) to refine techniques for applying the approach in both analysis and group discussions. Here we are concerned primarily with (a) and (c)
What if there is a revolution in diplomatic affairs? by David F Ronfeldt( Book )

3 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

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Networks and netwars : the future of terror, crime, and militancy
Alternative Names
John Arquilla American analyst/academic of international relations

English (146)

Spanish (1)

Chinese (1)

The Reagan imprint : ideas in American foreign policy from the collapse of communism to the war on terrorIn Athena's camp : preparing for conflict in the information ageInsurgents, raiders, and bandits : how masters of irregular warfare have shaped our worldWorst enemy : the reluctant transformation of the American militaryThe advent of netwarSwarming & the future of conflictDubious battles : aggression, defeat, and the international systemThe three circles of war : understanding the dynamics of conflict in Iraq