Shambaugh, Jay C.
Most widely held works by Jay C Shambaugh
Exchange rate regimes in the modern era by Michael W Klein ( Book )
4 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 643 libraries worldwide
"The exchange rate is sometimes called the most important price in a highly globalized world. A country's choice between government-managed fixed rates and market-determined floating rates has significant implications for monetary policy, trade, and macroeconomic outcomes, and is the subject of both academic and policy debate. In this book, two leading economists examine the operation and consequences of exchange rate regimes in an era of increasing international interdependence.
Monetary sovereignty, exchange rates, and capital controls : the trilemma in the interwar period by Maurice Obstfeld ( Book )
7 editions published in 2004 in English and No Linguistic content and held by 71 libraries worldwide
"The interwar period was marked by the end of the classical gold standard regime and new levels of macroeconomic disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the open-economy trilemma the inability of policymakers simultaneously to pursue a fixed exchange rate, open capital markets, and autonomous monetary policy. The first two objectives were linchpins of the pre-1914 order. As increasingly democratic polities faced pressures to engage in domestic macroeconomic management, however, either currency pegs or freedom of capital movements had to yield. This historical analytic narrative is compelling with significant ramifications for today's world, if true but empirically controversial. We apply theory and empirics to the interwar data and find strong support for the logic of the trilemma. Thus, an inability to pursue consistent policies in a rapidly changing political and economic environment appears central to an understanding of the interwar crises, and the same constraints still apply today"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
The trilemma in history : tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility by Maurice Obstfeld ( Book )
6 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and held by 68 libraries worldwide
"The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Calvo and Reinhart 2001, 2002) argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy. Others (e.g., Bordo and Flandreau 2003), that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Financial exchange rates and international currency exposures by Philip R Lane ( Book )
11 editions published between 2007 and 2008 in English and held by 61 libraries worldwide
Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements. Further, we demonstrate that many developing countries hold short foreign-currency positions, leaving them open to negative valuation effects when the domestic currency depreciates. However, we also show that many of these countries have substantially reduced their foreign currency exposure over the last decade. Last, we show that our currency measure has high explanatory power for the valuation term in net foreign asset dynamics: exchange rate valuation shocks are sizable, not quickly reversed and may entail substantial wealth shocks.
Fixed exchange rates and trade by Michael W Klein ( Book )
3 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 61 libraries worldwide
"A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it. Furthermore, the web of fixed exchange rates created when countries link to a common base also promotes trade, but only when these countries are part of a wider system, as during the Bretton Woods period. These results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy : the role of the exchange rate regime by Julian Di Giovanni ( Book )
8 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide
It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.
Financial stability, the trilemma, and international reserves by Maurice Obstfeld ( Book )
10 editions published between 2007 and 2008 in English and held by 34 libraries worldwide
The rapid growth of international reserves---a development concentrated in the emerging markets---remains a puzzle. In this paper we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange rate policy are all significant predictors of reserve stocks. Our empirical financial-stability model seems to outperform both traditional models and recent explanations based on external short-term debt.
The nature of exchange rate regimes by Michael W Klein ( Book )
2 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 31 libraries worldwide
The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of a view that pegs do not really peg with the "fear of floating" view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of a country's choice of exchange rate regime for general macroeconomic performance. Recently, though, more studies have shown the exchange rate regime does matter in some contexts. In this paper, we attempt to reconcile the perception that fixed exchange rates are only a "mirage" with the recent research showing the effects of fixed exchange rates on trade, monetary autonomy, and growth. First we demonstrate that, while pegs frequently break, many do last and those that break tend to reform, so a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. Second, we study the exchange rate effect of fixed exchange rates. Fixed exchange rates exhibit greater bilateral exchange rate stability today and in the future. Pegs also display somewhat lower multilateral volatility.
Study guide to accompany International economics, theory and policy, sixth edition, Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld by Linda S Goldberg ( Book )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 31 libraries worldwide
Financial instability, reserves, and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008 by Maurice Obstfeld ( Book )
3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 26 libraries worldwide
In this paper we connect the events of the last twelve months, "The Panic of 2008" as it has been called, to the demand for international reserves. In previous work, we have shown that international reserve demand can be rationalized by a central bank's desire to backstop the broad money supply to avert the possibility of an internal/external double drain (a bank run combined with capital flight). Thus, simply looking at trade or short-term debt as motivations for reserve holdings is insufficient; one must also consider the size of the banking system (M2). Here, we show that a country's reserve holdings just before the current crisis, relative to their predicted holdings based on these financial motives, can significantly predict exchange rate movements of both emerging and advanced countries in 2008. Countries with large war chests did not depreciate -- and some appreciated. Meanwhile, those who held insufficient reserves based on our metric were likely to depreciate. Current account balances and short-term debt levels are not statistically significant predictors of depreciation once reserve levels are taken into account. Our mode'₂s typically high predicted reserve levels provide important context for the unprecedented U.S. dollar swap lines recently provided to many countries by the Federal Reserve.
Global savings and global investment the transmission of identified fiscal shocks by James Donald Feyrer ( Book )
4 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Using the exogenous shocks to US tax policy identified by Romer & Romer, we trace the impact of an exogenous shock to savings through the income accounting identities of the US and the rest of the world. We find that exogenous tax increases are only partially offset by changes in private savings (Ricardian equivalence is not complete). We also find that only a small amount of the resulting change in US saving is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contrary to Feldstein & Horioka). Almost half of the fiscal shock is transmitted abroad as an increase in the US current account. Positive shocks to US savings generate current account deficits and increases in investment in other countries in the world. We cannot reject that the shock is uniformly transmitted across countries with different currency regimes and different levels of development. The results suggest highly integrated world capital markets with rapid adjustment. In short we find that the US acts like a large open economy and the world acts like a closed economy.
Study guide to accompany International economics, theory & policy, seventh edition, Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld by Jay C Shambaugh ( Book )
2 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
The long or short of it determinants of foreign country exposure in external balance sheets by Philip R Lane ( Book )
2 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
A major focus of the recent literature on the determination of optimal portfolios in open-economy macroeconomic models has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks. However, there is little empirical evidence on the foreign currency exposures that are embedded in international balance sheets. Using a new database, we provide stylized facts concerning the cross-country and time-series variation in aggregate foreign currency exposure and its various subcomponents. In panel estimation, we find that richer, more open economies take longer foreign-currency positions. In addition, we find that an increase in the propensity for a currency to depreciate during bad times is associated with a longer position in foreign currencies, providing a hedge against domestic output fluctuations. We view these new stylized facts as informative in their own right and also potentially useful to the burgeoning theoretical literature on the macroeconomics of international portfolios.
The nature of exchange rate regimes by Michael W Klein ( Book )
1 edition published in 2006 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
The long or short of it: determinants of foreign currency exposure in external balance sheets by Philip R Lane ( Book )
7 editions published between 2008 and 2009 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
The trilemma in history : trade-offs among exchange rates, monetary policies and capital mobility by Maurice Obstfeld ( Book )
3 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
Exchange rate regimes in the modern era by Michael W Klein ( Book )
2 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
Study guide to accompany Krugman/Obstfeld International economics, theory and policy, 8[th edition by Linda S Goldberg ( Book )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 9 libraries worldwide
Fixed exchange rates and trade by Michael W Klein ( )
2 editions published in 2004 in No Linguistic content and English and held by 7 libraries worldwide
A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it. Furthermore, the web of fixed exchange rates created when countries link to a common base also promotes trade, but only when these countries are part of a wider system, as during the Bretton Woods period. These results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates.
Study guide to accompany "International economics", theory and policy, sixth edition by Linda S Goldberg ( Book )
2 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
Balance of payments Balance of payments--Econometric models Banks and banking, Central Capital movements Commerce Currency swaps Developing countries Financial crises Fiscal policy--Econometric models Foreign exchange Foreign exchange administration Foreign exchange administration--Econometric models Foreign exchange rates Foreign exchange rates--Econometric models Foreign exchange rates--Mathematical models Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) History Interest rates--Econometric models International economic relations International finance International finance--Econometric models International finance--Mathematical models International trade Investments, Foreign--Econometric models Monetary policy Monetary policy--Econometric models Portfolio management Problems, exercises, etc. Saving and investment Special drawing rights Taxation United States
Shambaugh, J. fl.2003-
Shambaugh, Jay Curtis fl.2003-
Shambaugh, Jay fl.2003-