WorldCat Identities

International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia Department

Works: 395 works in 810 publications in 1 language and 18,821 library holdings
Classifications: HG3881.5.I58, 305.4
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works about International Monetary Fund
Most widely held works by International Monetary Fund
The effects of fiscal policies on the economic development of women in the Middle East and North Africa by Nicole Laframboise( Book )

4 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Statistics indicate that the economic and social development of women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) compares unfavorably with most regions in the world. This paper assesses the influence of government expenditure and taxation policies on the economic and social welfare of women in the region. On the expenditure side, we test the explanatory power of public social spending in the determination of key female social indicators. We find that the relatively weak social outcomes for MENA women are not explained by the amount of government social spending, suggesting the answer lies in the efficiency and reach of present spending. With respect to taxation, the main issues in the literature on gender bias in taxation are highlighted and applied in a general manner to the MENA context. Some simple policy recommendations are suggested
Quasi-fiscal deficits and energy conditionality in selected CIS countries by Tapio Saavalainen( Book )

8 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 15 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Quasi-fiscal deficits of public utility companies are common in all member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They constitute a significant impediment to efficient resource allocation and endanger macroeconomic stability. This paper presents a simple framework for measuring and monitoring such deficits and highlights their macroeconomic relevance. It reviews the progress under IMF conditionality aimed at correcting these imbalances during 1993-2003. The paper suggests that the extensive conditionality under the IMF-supported programs has yielded only limited progress in reducing the energy sector's financial imbalances. In conclusion, different policy options are discussed in light of the lessons learned
The monetary transmission mechanism in Jordan by Tushar Poddar( Book )

6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 12 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper examines monetary transmission in Jordan using the vector autoregressive approach. We find that the real 3-month CD rate, the Central Bank's operating target, affects bank retail rates and that monetary policy, measured by the spread between the 3-month CD rate and the U.S. Federal Funds rate, is effective in influencing foreign reserves. We do not find evidence of monetary policy affecting output. Output responds very little to changes in bank lending rates. Furthermore, equity prices and the exchange rate are not significant channels for transmitting monetary policy to economic activity. The effect of monetary policy on the stock market seems insignificant
Inflation in Pakistan : money or wheat? by Mohsin S Khan( Book )

6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper examines the relative importance of monetary factors and structuralist supply-side factors for inflation in Pakistan. A stylized inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), the exchange rate, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor that has received considerable attention in Pakistan. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Changes in the wheat support price influence inflation in the short run, but not in the long run. Furthermore, the wheat support price matters only over the medium term if accommodated by monetary policy
Can a rule-based monetary policy framework work in a developing country : the case of Yemen by Saade Chami( Book )

4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule-based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term
Testing real interest parity in emerging markets by Manmohan Singh( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The paper finds significant deviations between short-term emerging market real interest rates and world real interest rates primarily due to the inflationary expectations of the local investor base. We test for long-run real interest convergence in emerging markets using a time varying panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran to capture the improved macro-economic fundamentals since early 1990s. We also estimate the speed of convergence in the presence of a shock. The paper suggests that real interest rates in the emerging markets show some convergence in the long run but real interest parity does not hold. Our results also find that the speed of adjustment of real rates to a shock is estimated to differ significantly across the emerging markets. Measured by their half-life, some emerging markets in Asia, E. Europe and S. Africa, where real interest rates are generally low, take much longer to adjust than where real interest rates are generally high (Latin America, Turkey). From a policy perspective, encouraging foreign investors to take direct exposure at the short end of the local debt market could lower the real interest rates in some emerging markets
Beauty queens and wallflowers : currency maps in the Middle East and Central Asia by Julian Berengaut( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Against the background of the theory of optimum currency areas, the paper analyzes possible sequences for establishing a currency union (CU) in the Middle East and Central Asia region. Between the corner solutions of independent currencies for all countries in the region and a CU comprising all countries, a large number of combinations of member countries in the CU is possible. The analysis aims to determine the composition of potential CUs as a function of the country initiating the CU, an exogenously determined number of currencies in the region, and the weight attached to the particular selection criteria. Within this framework, the study seeks to establish whether some countries are consistently selected at early stages of the process, while others join only at later stages
Fiscal determinants of inflation : a primer for the Middle East and North Africa by Domenico Fanizza( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have recently experienced surges in money growth that apparently have not generated significant inflationary pressures. Moreover, several MENA countries have followed monetary policy rules that according to standard monetary theory should have produced macroeconomic instability and possibly hyperinflation. We argue that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level could usefully provide insights on these developments. Our main conclusion is that a sound fiscal position constitutes a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability whereas "sound" monetary policy is neither sufficient nor necessary. Hence, fiscal policy and public debt deserve particular attention for maintaining macroeconomic stability, by and large consistent with Fund policy advice to MENA countries."
Development of the commercial banking system in Afghanistan : risks and rewards by Jelena Pavlović( Book )

6 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Lending practices of commercial banks in Afghanistan were analyzed using CAMEL ratings. Statistically significant correlations were found: Banks with worse ratings (a) had more lending to domestic clients and (b) paid less tax. There was no statistically significant relationship between profits and total assets or between lending/assets versus profit/assets. Interviews of senior management of 8 banks accounting for about 90 percent of the commercial banking system corroborated evidence that poorly rated banks lend to domestic clients, whereas highly rated banks do not lend. Banks that lend extensively domestically engage in extra-judicial, non-traditional contract enforcement
The Jordanian stock market : should you invest in it for risk diversification or performance? by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik( Book )

5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We analyze the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and its integration with other markets. Using cointegration techniques, we find that the ASE and other Arab stock markets are cointegrated, which implies little long-run risk diversification. However, there is no cointegrating relationship between the ASE and other emerging or developed stock markets. Two of the main regional stock markets-Kuwait and Saudi Arabia-Grangercause the Jordanian stock market. The paper finds that there may have been some overvaluation at end-2005, but that the market correction in early 2006 and strong recent earnings growth have reduced overvaluation concerns
To smooth or not to smooth : the impact of grants and remittances on the equilibrium real exchange rate in Jordan by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper estimates the effect of grants and workers' remittances on Jordan's long-term equilibrium real exchange rate. We estimate an equilibrium path for the Jordanian real exchange rate using the Johansen cointegration methodology over the period 1964 to 2005. Controlling for other fundamentals, we find that both grants and workers' remittances appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate in a statistically and economically significant way. We also find that assessing deviations of the actual real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium real exchange rate is nontrivial because different smoothing methodologies and the nonsmoothed estimates give very different results
Forecasting inflation in Sudan by Kenji Moriyama( Book )

3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroecono
What transparency can do when incentives fail : an analysis of rent capture by Era Dabla-Norris( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 8 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper analyzes the pervasiveness and persistence of rent seeking, misgovernance, and public sector inefficiency in many developing and transition economies. We formalize evidence from country experiences and empirical studies into a stylized analytical framework that reflects realistic constraints faced in these countries. Our work departs from the standard economic literature by assuming that (i) the relationship between the government and its population is regulated through an implicit social consensus; (ii) traditional incentives (in the form of public expenditure controls, sanctions, or monetary incentives to perform) are, for various reasons, ineffective in many of these countries; and (iii) the persistence of high corruption reflects a very stable equilibrium, which in turn reflects the fact that several constraints are simultaneously binding. We argue that, when traditional incentives fail, transparency-information provision and disclosure, together with the means to use it-by relaxing different constraints, can contribute to improving public outcomes
Determinants of inflation in GCC by Magda Kandil( Book )

3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in
Does fiscal policy matter for the trade account? : a panel cointegration study by Katja Funke( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the trade account. Research prior to this paper did not consider that the components of private and public demand in the import demand equation exhibit different elasticities. Using pooled mean group estimation for annual panel data of the G-7 countries for the years 1970 through 2002, we provide empirical evidence that the composition of overall demand-i.e., the distribution among public demand, private demand, and export demand-has an impact on the magnitude of the trade account deficit
Fiscal sustainability in remittance-dependent economies by Ralph Chami( Book )

5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the amount of fiscal adjustment required to place debt on a sustainable path. While preliminary, these results are indicative of how a one-size-fits-all stability analysis may be inappropriate when evaluating the stance of fiscal poli
Current account determinants for oil-exporting countries by Hanan Morsy( Book )

5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the applicability of the estimated coefficients for oil countries. Furthermore, current approaches are not specifically tailored to oil-producing countries because they fail to capture the effects of oil wealth and the degree of maturity in oil production. This paper explores the underlying determinants of the cur
How Russia affects the neighborhood : trade, financial, and remittance channels by Fahad Alturki( )

1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia
The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy by Paul Cashin( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output
Workers' remittances an overlooked channel of international business cycle transmission? by Adolfo Barajas( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

V. Identifying a Causal Relationship Between Remittances and the International Business Cycle SynchronizationA. Using the Selection Based on Observables to Assess the Bias from Unobservables; B. Addressing the Potential Reverse Causality Between Remittances and the Components of the Dependent Variable; 5. Additional Controls and Assessing the Bias due to Selection Based?; 6. Instrumental Variable Estimates: Aggregate Data; 7. Instrumental Variable Estimates: Bilateral Data; VI. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix; I. Descriptive Statistics and List of Countries; A. Aggregate Data
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Alternative Names
Internationaler Whrungsfonds Middle East and Central Asia


English (83)