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International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia Department

Works: 372 works in 770 publications in 1 language and 10,966 library holdings
Classifications: HG3810, 338.2728
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Most widely held works by International Monetary Fund
The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy ( )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 198 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output
Fiscal determinants of inflation a primer for the Middle East and North Africa by Domenico Fanizza ( )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 192 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have recently experienced surges in money growth that apparently have not generated significant inflationary pressures. Moreover, several MENA countries have followed monetary policy rules that according to standard monetary theory should have produced macroeconomic instability and possibly hyperinflation. We argue that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level could usefully provide insights on these developments. Our main conclusion is that a sound fiscal position constitutes a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability whereas "sound" monetary policy is neither sufficient nor necessary. Hence, fiscal policy and public debt deserve particular attention for maintaining macroeconomic stability, by and large consistent with Fund policy advice to MENA countries
Inflation in Pakistan money or wheat? by Mohsin S Khan ( )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 191 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines the relative importance of monetary factors and structuralist supply-side factors for inflation in Pakistan. A stylized inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), the exchange rate, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor that has received considerable attention in Pakistan. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Changes in the wheat support price influence inflation in the short run, but not in the long run. Furthermore, the wheat support price matters only over the medium term if accommodated by monetary policy
How Russia affects the neighborhood trade, financial, and remittance channels by Fahad Alturki ( )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 191 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia
What transparency can do when incentives fail an analysis of rent capture by Era Dabla-Norris ( )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 188 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes the pervasiveness and persistence of rent seeking, misgovernance, and public sector inefficiency in many developing and transition economies. We formalize evidence from country experiences and empirical studies into a stylized analytical framework that reflects realistic constraints faced in these countries. Our work departs from the standard economic literature by assuming that (i) the relationship between the government and its population is regulated through an implicit social consensus; (ii) traditional incentives (in the form of public expenditure controls, sanctions, or monetary incentives to perform) are, for various reasons, ineffective in many of these countries; and (iii) the persistence of high corruption reflects a very stable equilibrium, which in turn reflects the fact that several constraints are simultaneously binding. We argue that, when traditional incentives fail, transparency-information provision and disclosure, together with the means to use it-by relaxing different constraints, can contribute to improving public outcomes
Does fiscal policy matter for the trade account? a panel cointegration study by Katja Funke ( )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 188 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the trade account. Research prior to this paper did not consider that the components of private and public demand in the import demand equation exhibit different elasticities. Using pooled mean group estimation for annual panel data of the G-7 countries for the years 1970 through 2002, we provide empirical evidence that the composition of overall demand-i.e., the distribution among public demand, private demand, and export demand-has an impact on the magnitude of the trade account deficit
The monetary transmission mechanism in Jordan by Tushar Poddar ( )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 187 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines monetary transmission in Jordan using the vector autoregressive approach. We find that the real 3-month CD rate, the Central Bank's operating target, affects bank retail rates and that monetary policy, measured by the spread between the 3-month CD rate and the U.S. Federal Funds rate, is effective in influencing foreign reserves. We do not find evidence of monetary policy affecting output. Output responds very little to changes in bank lending rates. Furthermore, equity prices and the exchange rate are not significant channels for transmitting monetary policy to economic activity. The effect of monetary policy on the stock market seems insignificant
Worker's remittances an overlooked channel of international business cycle transmission? by Adolfo Barajas ( )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 186 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper shows that remittance flows significantly increase the business cycle synchronization between remittance-recipient countries and the rest of the world. Using both aggregate and bilateral remittances data in a panel data setting, the study demonstrates that this effect is robust and causal. Moreover, the econometric analysis reveals that remittance flows are more effective in channeling economic downturns than upswings from the sending countries to remittance-receiving economies. The analysis suggests that measures of openness and spillovers could be enhanced by accounting for the role of the remittances channel
Development of the commercial banking system in Afghanistan risks and rewards by Jelena Pavlovic ( )
4 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 186 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Lending practices of commercial banks in Afghanistan were analyzed using CAMEL ratings. Statistically significant correlations were found: Banks with worse ratings (a) had more lending to domestic clients and (b) paid less tax. There was no statistically significant relationship between profits and total assets or between lending/assets versus profit/assets. Interviews of senior management of 8 banks accounting for about 90 percent of the commercial banking system corroborated evidence that poorly rated banks lend to domestic clients, whereas highly rated banks do not lend. Banks that lend extensively domestically engage in extra-judicial, non-traditional contract enforcement
Current account determinants for oil-exporting countries by Hanan Morsy ( )
4 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 185 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the applicability of the estimated coefficients for oil countries. Furthermore, current approaches are not specifically tailored to oil-producing countries because they fail to capture the effects of oil wealth and the degree of maturity in oil production. This paper explores the underlying determinants of the cur
Beauty queens and wallflowers - currency maps in the Middle East and Central Asia by Julian Berengaut ( )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 185 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Against the background of the theory of optimum currency areas, the paper analyzes possible sequences for establishing a currency union (CU) in the Middle East and Central Asia region. Between the corner solutions of independent currencies for all countries in the region and a CU comprising all countries, a large number of combinations of member countries in the CU is possible. The analysis aims to determine the composition of potential CUs as a function of the country initiating the CU, an exogenously determined number of currencies in the region, and the weight attached to the particular selection criteria. Within this framework, the study seeks to establish whether some countries are consistently selected at early stages of the process, while others join only at later stages
Determinants of inflation in GCC by Magda Kandil ( )
3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 184 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in
Testing real interest parity in emerging markets by Manmohan Singh ( )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 184 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The paper finds significant deviations between short-term emerging market real interest rates and world real interest rates primarily due to the inflationary expectations of the local investor base. We test for long-run real interest convergence in emerging markets using a time varying panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran to capture the improved macro-economic fundamentals since early 1990s. We also estimate the speed of convergence in the presence of a shock. The paper suggests that real interest rates in the emerging markets show some convergence in the long run but real interest parity does not hold. Our results also find that the speed of adjustment of real rates to a shock is estimated to differ significantly across the emerging markets. Measured by their half-life, some emerging markets in Asia, E. Europe and S. Africa, where real interest rates are generally low, take much longer to adjust than where real interest rates are generally high (Latin America, Turkey). From a policy perspective, encouraging foreign investors to take direct exposure at the short end of the local debt market could lower the real interest rates in some emerging markets
Forecasting inflation in Sudan by Kenji Moriyama ( )
3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 184 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroecono
To smooth or not to smooth the impact of grants and remittances on the equilibrium real exchange rate in Jordan by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik ( )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 183 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper estimates the effect of grants and workers' remittances on Jordan's long-term equilibrium real exchange rate. We estimate an equilibrium path for the Jordanian real exchange rate using the Johansen cointegration methodology over the period 1964 to 2005. Controlling for other fundamentals, we find that both grants and workers' remittances appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate in a statistically and economically significant way. We also find that assessing deviations of the actual real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium real exchange rate is nontrivial because different smoothing methodologies and the nonsmoothed estimates give very different results
Fiscal sustainability in remittance-dependent economies by Ralph Chami ( )
5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 182 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the amount of fiscal adjustment required to place debt on a sustainable path. While preliminary, these results are indicative of how a one-size-fits-all stability analysis may be inappropriate when evaluating the stance of fiscal policy for countries with different balance of payments characteristics
The housing cycle in emerging Middle Eastern economies and its macroeconomic policy implications by S Beidas ( )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 182 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle
Frugality are we fretting too much? : household saving and assets in the United States by Y Abdih ( )
4 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 181 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Household savings rates in the United States have recently crept up from all-time lows. Some have suggested that a shift toward frugality will hamper GDP growth-the Keynesian "paradox of thrift." We estimate that households compensate for a fall in their asset income by saving more out of their labor income, dollar-for-dollar. In the wake of the crisis, our model predicts that such primary savings will increase, but only temporarily and modestly, as household assets stabilize. As savings flows gradually accumulate, they help rebuild corporate net worth and hence firms' capacity to make capital investments. A timely return to pre-crisis levels of capital investment would require that U.S. households save substantially more than the model predicts, starting now. Hence, we should fret that our savings rates may be too low
Local governments' fiscal balance, privatization, and banking sector reform in transition countries by Ernesto Crivelli ( )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 181 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Several transition economies have undertaken fiscal decentralization reforms over the past two decades along with liberalization, privatization, and stabilization reforms. Theory predicts that decentralization may aggravate fiscal imbalances, unless the right incentives are in place to promote fiscal discipline. This paper uses a panel of 20 transition countries over 19 years to address a central question of fact: Did privatization help to promote local governments' fiscal discipline? The answer is clearly 'no' for privatization considered in isolation. However, privatization and subnational fiscal autonomy along with reforms to the banking system - restraining access to soft financing - may prove effective at improving fiscal balances among local governments
A new Keynesian model of the Armenian economy by Ashot Mkrtchyan ( )
2 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 180 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Armenian economy. The structure of the model is largely motivated by recent developments in DSGE modeling, with key extensions to incorporate specific structural characteristics of the Armenian economy. The resultant model can be used to simulate monetary policy paths and help analyze the robustness of policy conclusions. The paper tests the model's properties on Armenian data, demonstrating that the main stylized features relevant for monetary policy making are well captured by the model
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Alternative Names

controlled identity International Monetary Fund

controlled identity International Monetary Fund. Middle Eastern Department

International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
MCD Abkuerzung
MCD (International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department)
English (66)