WorldCat Identities

Noy, Ilan

Overview
Works: 66 works in 151 publications in 1 language and 521 library holdings
Genres: History 
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about  Ilan Noy Publications about Ilan Noy
Publications by  Ilan Noy Publications by Ilan Noy
Most widely held works by Ilan Noy
Endogenous financial openness : efficiency and political economy considerations by Joshua Aizenman ( Book )
7 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 70 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"This paper studies the endogenous determination of financial openness. We outline a framework where financial openness is endogenously determined by the authority's choice of financial repression as a taxation device, and where the private sector determines endogenously the magnitude of capital flight. The optimal financial repression is shown to depend on the openness of the economy to international trade, the efficiency of the tax system (which in turn may be affected by political economy considerations), and on political polarization and the degree of opportunism. Similar predictions are obtained in a model where authorities pursue an opportunistic policy representing the interest of a narrow pressure group that engages in capital flight due to political uncertainty. We confirm the predictions of the models, showing that de-facto financial openness [measured by (gross private capital inflows + outflows)/GDP] depends positively on lagged trade openness, and GDP/Capita. For developing countries, we find that a one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5 percent increase in de-facto financial openness (% of GDP), a one standard deviation increase in the democratization index reduces financial openness by 3.5%, and a one standard deviation increase in corruption is associated with a 3% reduction of financial openness. Similar negative dependence applies for measures of political competition. The impact of a budget surplus on financial openness is negative for developing countries, but positive for the OECD. The theoretical and empirical analysis leads us to conclude that a more openly competitive, free and inclusive political system will lead to lower levels of de-facto financial openness after controlling for incomes, macroeconomic policy (inflation and budget surpluses), interest rates and commercial openness"--NBER website
FDI and trade--two way linkages? by Joshua Aizenman ( )
9 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 69 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal linkages between FDI and disaggregated measures of international trade. We outline a model exemplifying some of these linkages, describe several methods for investigating two-way feedbacks between various categories of trade, and apply them to the recent experience of developing countries. After controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional effects, we find that the strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between FDI and manufacturing trade. More precisely, applying Geweke (1982)'s decomposition method, we find that most of the linear feedback between trade and FDI (81%) can be accounted for by Granger-causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from trade to FDI (31%). The rest of the total linear feedback is attributable to simultaneous correlation between the two annual series"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
On the two way feedback between financial and trade openness by Joshua Aizenman ( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 63 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"This paper studies the two-way feedback between de-facto financial and trade openness. We first show that de-facto financial openness (measured by the sum of gross private capital inflows and outflows as percent of GDP) depends positively on lagged trade openness, controlling for macroeconomic and political economy factors. Next, we confirm that de-facto trade openness depends positively on lagged financial openness, using similar controls. Having empirically established (Granger) causality, we investigate the relative magnitudes of these causality structures using the decomposition test developed in Geweke (1982). Most of the linear feedback between trade and financial openness (87%) can be accounted for by Granger-causality from financial openness to trade openness (53%) and from trade to financial openness (34%). Simultaneous correlation between the two series accounts for only 13% of the total linear feedback between the two series"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Prizes for basic research human capital, economic might and the shadow of history by Joshua Aizenman ( )
8 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 48 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper studies the impact of global factors on patterns of basic research across countries and time. We rely on the records of major scientific awards, and on data dealing with global economic and historical trends. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which scale or threshold effects account for countries share of major prizes [Nobel, Fields, Kyoto and Wolf]. We construct a stylized model, predicting that lagged relative GDP of a country relative to the GDP of all countries engaging in basic research is an important explanatory variable of country's share of prizes. Scale effects imply that the association between the GDP share of a country and its prize share tends to be logistic -- above a threshold, there is a "take off" range, where the prize share increases at an accelerating rate with the relative GDP share of the country, until it reaches "maturity" stage. Our empirical analysis confirms the importance of lagged relative GDP in accounting for countries'; prize shares, and the presence of "winner takes all" scale effect benefitting the leader. Using measures of casualties during the wars, we find that the only significant effect can be found for a lag of 3 decades - i.e., deaths in the war negatively impact the viability of basic research about 30 years after the fact. With more recent data, we document the growing importance of countries that used to be at the periphery of global research, possibly advancing towards the take off stage
Inflation targeting and real exchange rates in emerging markets by Joshua Aizenman ( )
9 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 38 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
We examine the inflation targeting (IT) experiences of emerging market economies, focusing especially on the roles of the real exchange rate and the distinction between commodity and non-commodity exporting nations. In the context of a simple empirical model, estimated with panel data for 17 emerging markets using both IT and non-IT observations, we find a significant and stable response running from inflation to policy interest rates in emerging markets that are following publically announced IT policies. By contrast, central banks respond much less to inflation in non-IT regimes. IT emerging markets follow a mixed IT strategy whereby both inflation and real exchange rates are important determinants of policy interest rates. The response to real exchange rates is much stronger in non-IT countries, however, suggesting that policymakers are more constrained in the IT regime--they are attempting to simultaneously target both inflation and real exchange rates and these objectives are not always consistent. We also find that the response to real exchange rates is strongest in those countries following IT policies that are relatively intensive in exporting basic commodities. We present a simple model that explains this empirical result
Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies by Joshua Aizenman ( )
6 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 37 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980-2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling for conventional macro variables and the history of banking crises occurring after 1970, we do not detect a learning process from past banking crises. Countries that have already experienced one banking crisis generally have a higher likelihood of experiencing another crisis; and the depth of the present crisis does not appear to be affected by the previous historical experience with crisis events. Evidence also suggests that, in middle-income countries, higher de jure capital account openness is associated with lower likelihood of a banking crisis, a lower ratio of non-performing loans during the crisis, and higher levels of forgone output in the crisis' aftermath. In contrast, we find that past crisis experience has a significant impact on savings. When facing considerable political risk, the past does seem to matter -- countries with more people who were exposed, over their lifetime, to larger disasters will tend to save more. This association, however, does not hold for countries with more stable political systems. We interpret these results as consistent with a differential sectoral adjustment to a crisis hypothesis. The private sector, by virtue of its harder budget constraints, adjusts faster, whereas the government adjusts at a slower pace following a crisis. The financial sector may find itself in between the two. The "too big to fail" doctrine associated with large banks provides them with a softer budget constraint, delaying the day of adjustment; for some, delaying bankruptcy. Occasionally, the separation between banks and the public sector is murky, further delaying necessary adjustments of the financial sector
Capital controls in Brazil stemming a tide with a signal? by Yothin Jinjarak ( )
5 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Controls on capital inflows have been experiencing a renaissance since 2008, with several prominent emerging markets implementing them. We focus on Brazil, which instituted five changes in its capital account regime in 2008-2011. Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals (i.e., Brazil with no policy change) for each of these changes. We find no evidence that any tightening of controls was effective in reducing the magnitudes of capital inflows, but we observe some modest and short-lived success in preventing further declines in inflows when the capital controls were relaxed. We hypothesize that price-based capital controls' only perceptible effect is to be found in the content of the signal they broadcast regarding the government's larger intentions and sensibilities. Brazil's left-of-center government's willingness to remove controls was perceived as a noteworthy indication that the government was not as hostile to the international financial markets as many expected it to be
Public and private saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks by Joshua Aizenman ( )
5 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 27 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The global crisis of 2008-9 and the ongoing Euro crisis raise many questions regarding the long-term response to crises. We know that households that lost access to credit, for example, were forced to adjust and increase saving. But, will households remain bigger savers than they would have been had the global financial crisis not occurred? And for how long will this increased saving persist? We also ask similar questions about the public sector 's saving decisions. We hypothesize that it is only dramatic shocks that have a long-lasting effect on saving behavior. For a sample of 23 high-income countries, we examine the impact of catastrophic shocks from 1900 onward (defined as a time period in which the cumulative decline in per capita income was larger than 10 percentage points) on patterns of saving during 1980-2010. We find evidence consistent with history-dependent dynamics: more experience of past crises tends to increase savings among households, but lead to decreased public sector saving. This decrease in public saving, however, is about 1/3 in magnitude than the corresponding increase in private/household saving. We follow up on these findings with an investigation of the importance of historical exposure for current account dynamics, but find no strong indication that our measure of past exposure is important to the current account 's determination. We conclude by examining the likely impact of the 2008-9 GFC on future saving
Sudden stops and the Mexican wave : current crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets by Michael M Hutchison ( Book )
7 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
How bad are twins? / output costs of currency and banking crises by Michael M Hutchison ( Book )
6 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness by Joshua Aizenman ( )
3 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 8 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper studies the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. First, we outline a theoretical framework leading to two-way feedbacks between the different modes of openness; next, we identify these feedbacks empirically. We find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5 percent increase in de-facto financial openness (% of GDP), controlling for political economy and macroeconomic factors. Similarly, increase in de-facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. De-jure restrictions on capital mobility have only a weak impact on de-facto financial openness, while de-jure restrictions on the current account have large adverse effect on commercial openness. Having established (Granger) causality, we investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using Geweke's (1982) decomposition methodology. We find that almost all of the linear feedback between trade and financial openness can be accounted for by G-causality from financial openness to trade openness (53%) and from trade to financial openness (34%). We conclude that in an era of rapidly growing trade integration countries cannot choose financial openness independently of their degree of openness to trade. Dealing with greater exposure to financial turbulence by imposing restrictions on financial flows will likely be ineffectual
Natural disasters and economic policy for the Pacific Rim by Ilan Noy ( )
4 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 8 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
What happened to Kobe? : a reassessment of the impact of the 1995 earthquake in Japan by William DuPont ( )
4 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Fire-sale FDI? : the impact of financial crises on foreign direct investment by Olga Bogach ( )
4 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The 1960 tsunami in Hawaii long term consequences of a coastal disaster by John Lynham ( )
2 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The short-run nationwide macroeconomic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes by Lisa Doyle ( Book )
2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Investing in disaster risk reduction a global fund by Ilan Noy ( )
2 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Field study to determine the effects of marijuana and alcohol on driving performance by Ilan Noy ( Book )
4 editions published in 1985 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Natural disasters and firms in Vietnam by Tam Bang Vu ( )
2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Essays on financial crises and IMF interventions by Ilan Noy ( Book )
3 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
 
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Audience level: 0.85 (from 0.27 for Sudden sto ... to 0.93 for Endogenous ...)
Alternative Names
Neuberger, Ilan
Noy, I.
Languages
English (97)