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International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia Department

Works: 484 works in 1,065 publications in 1 language and 32,845 library holdings
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Most widely held works about International Monetary Fund
Most widely held works by International Monetary Fund
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries by Carlos Cáceres( )

3 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 772 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices?that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending?in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk
Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation by Kurt Annen( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 766 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper shows that donors that maximize relative aid impact spread their budgets across many recipient countries in a unique Nash equilibrium, explaining aid fragmentation. This equilibrium may be inefficient even without fixed costs, and the inefficiency increases in the equality of donors' budgets. The paper presents empirical evidence consistent with theoretical results. These imply that, short of ending donors' maximization of relative aid impact, agreements to better coordinate aid allocations are not implementable. Moreover, since policies to increase donor competition in terms of aid effectiveness risk reinforcing relativeness, they may well backfire, as any such reinforcement increases aid fragmentation
Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis by Ernesto Crivelli( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 763 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The aim of this paper is to provide new estimates of employment-output elasticities and assess the effect of structural and macroeocnomic policies on the employment-intensity of growth. Using an unbalanced panel of 167 countries over the period 1991 - 2009, the results suggest that structural policies aimed at increasing labor and product market flexibility and reducing government size have a significant and positive impact on employment elasticities. In addition, the results also suggest that in order to maximize the positive impact on the responsiveness of employment to economic activity, structural policies have to be complemented with macroeconomic policies aimed at increasing macroeconomic stability
Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries by Serhan Cevik( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 762 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries"--Page [1]
Spring Forward or Fall Back? The Post-Crisis Recovery of Firms by Leandro Medina( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 754 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper studies corporate performance in the aftermath of the global crisis by examining 6,581 manufacturing firms in 48 developed and developing countries in 2010, identifying factors of resilience as well as vulnerability. Based on a cross-sectional analysis, the results show that pre-crisis leverage and short-term debt have had negative effects on the speed of the recovery, while asset tangibility has had positive effects. The negative effect of leverage is non-linear, being particularly strong in firms with high pre-crisis leverage. Furthermore, the effects are different for advanced and emerging market economies. The paper also shows that the macroeconomic framework critically matters for firm growth. In particular, in countries that have allowed the exchange rate to depreciate, firms have had a faster recovery in sectors highly dependent on trade
The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles by Paul Cashin( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 743 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications
Islamic Republic of Mauritania : poverty reduction strategy paper progress report by International Monetary Fund( )

1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 728 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Mauritania's poverty reduction strategy paper is based on a broadly participatory process and serves as the policy framework for the country's economic and social policies. The focus is to accelerate economic growth and stabilize the macroeconomic framework, which benefits the poor, ensure the development of human resources and expansion of basic services, and improve governance and build capacity. In the revision the focus is to strengthen leadership, monitoring, evaluation, and coordination. Mauritania has to take up major challenges to achieve the objectives established at the outset
The economics of political transitions : implications for the Arab Spring by Padamja Khandelwal( )

2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 710 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump"--Abstract
The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy by Paul Cashin( )

1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 522 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output
Fiscal determinants of inflation : a primer for the Middle East and North Africa by Domenico Fanizza( )

6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 414 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have recently experienced surges in money growth that apparently have not generated significant inflationary pressures. Moreover, several MENA countries have followed monetary policy rules that according to standard monetary theory should have produced macroeconomic instability and possibly hyperinflation. We argue that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level could usefully provide insights on these developments. Our main conclusion is that a sound fiscal position constitutes a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability whereas "sound" monetary policy is neither sufficient nor necessary. Hence, fiscal policy and public debt deserve particular attention for maintaining macroeconomic stability, by and large consistent with Fund policy advice to MENA countries."
What transparency can do when incentives fail : an analysis of rent capture by Era Dabla-Norris( )

5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 410 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper analyzes the pervasiveness and persistence of rent seeking, misgovernance, and public sector inefficiency in many developing and transition economies. We formalize evidence from country experiences and empirical studies into a stylized analytical framework that reflects realistic constraints faced in these countries. Our work departs from the standard economic literature by assuming that (i) the relationship between the government and its population is regulated through an implicit social consensus; (ii) traditional incentives (in the form of public expenditure controls, sanctions, or monetary incentives to perform) are, for various reasons, ineffective in many of these countries; and (iii) the persistence of high corruption reflects a very stable equilibrium, which in turn reflects the fact that several constraints are simultaneously binding. We argue that, when traditional incentives fail, transparency-information provision and disclosure, together with the means to use it-by relaxing different constraints, can contribute to improving public outcomes
Inflation in Pakistan : money or wheat? by Mohsin S Khan( )

7 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 409 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper examines the relative importance of monetary factors and structuralist supply-side factors for inflation in Pakistan. A stylized inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), the exchange rate, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor that has received considerable attention in Pakistan. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Changes in the wheat support price influence inflation in the short run, but not in the long run. Furthermore, the wheat support price matters only over the medium term if accommodated by monetary policy
The monetary transmission mechanism in Jordan by Tushar Poddar( )

7 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 407 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper examines monetary transmission in Jordan using the vector autoregressive approach. We find that the real 3-month CD rate, the Central Bank's operating target, affects bank retail rates and that monetary policy, measured by the spread between the 3-month CD rate and the U.S. Federal Funds rate, is effective in influencing foreign reserves. We do not find evidence of monetary policy affecting output. Output responds very little to changes in bank lending rates. Furthermore, equity prices and the exchange rate are not significant channels for transmitting monetary policy to economic activity. The effect of monetary policy on the stock market seems insignificant
Quasi-fiscal deficits and energy conditionality in selected CIS countries by Tapio Saavalainen( )

9 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 407 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Quasi-fiscal deficits of public utility companies are common in all member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They constitute a significant impediment to efficient resource allocation and endanger macroeconomic stability. This paper presents a simple framework for measuring and monitoring such deficits and highlights their macroeconomic relevance. It reviews the progress under IMF conditionality aimed at correcting these imbalances during 1993-2003. The paper suggests that the extensive conditionality under the IMF-supported programs has yielded only limited progress in reducing the energy sector's financial imbalances. In conclusion, different policy options are discussed in light of the lessons learned
Determinants of inflation in GCC by Magda Kandil( )

3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 407 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in
Does fiscal policy matter for the trade account? : a panel cointegration study by Katja Funke( )

6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 406 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the trade account. Research prior to this paper did not consider that the components of private and public demand in the import demand equation exhibit different elasticities. Using pooled mean group estimation for annual panel data of the G-7 countries for the years 1970 through 2002, we provide empirical evidence that the composition of overall demand-i.e., the distribution among public demand, private demand, and export demand-has an impact on the magnitude of the trade account deficit
Republic of Armenia : ex post assessment of long-term program engagement by International Monetary Fund( )

5 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 406 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term Program Engagement for Armenia. The quality of program implementation was uneven at the early stages of IMF engagement, but it has improved in recent years. Implementation of some key structural reforms suffered delays, reflecting in part capacity constraints and at times insufficient ownership. Collaboration between the IMF and the World Bank has been good. The Bank has played a valuable role in facilitating the streamlining of conditionality under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility arrangement
Fiscal sustainability in remittance-dependent economies by Y Abdih( )

5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 406 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the amount of fiscal adjustment required to place debt on a sustainable path. While preliminary, these results are indicative of how a one-size-fits-all stability analysis may be inappropriate when evaluating the stance of fiscal policy for countries with different balance of payments characteristics
Forecasting inflation in Sudan by Kenji Moriyama( )

3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 406 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroecono
To smooth or not to smooth : the impact of grants and remittances on the equilibrium real exchange rate in Jordan by Tahsin Saadi-Sedik( )

5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 406 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper estimates the effect of grants and workers' remittances on Jordan's long-term equilibrium real exchange rate. We estimate an equilibrium path for the Jordanian real exchange rate using the Johansen cointegration methodology over the period 1964 to 2005. Controlling for other fundamentals, we find that both grants and workers' remittances appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate in a statistically and economically significant way. We also find that assessing deviations of the actual real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium real exchange rate is nontrivial because different smoothing methodologies and the nonsmoothed estimates give very different results
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Alternative Names

controlled identityInternational Monetary Fund

controlled identityInternational Monetary Fund. Middle Eastern Department

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

MCD (International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department)

Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund

English (75)