Most widely held works by Arvind Subramanian
Trade and trade policies in eastern and southern Africa ( Book )
6 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 372 libraries worldwide
India's turn : understanding the economic transformation ( Book )
3 editions published between 2008 and 2009 in English and held by 132 libraries worldwide
On economic policies pursued in Indian economy post 1991 watershed year; articles co-authored with many other writers.
The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly by Arvind Subramanian ( Book )
18 editions published between 2003 and 2005 in English and No Linguistic content and held by 87 libraries worldwide
This paper furnishes robust evidence that the GATT/WTO has had a powerful and positive impact on trade. The impact has, however, been uneven. GATT/WTO membership for industrial countries has been associated with a large increase in imports estimated at about 40 percent of world trade. The same has not been true for developing country members, although those that joined after the Uruguay Round have benefited from increased imports. Similarly, there have been asymmetric effects among sectors, with WTO membership associated with substantially greater imports in sectors where barriers are low. These results are consistent with the history and design of the institution, which presided over significant trade liberalization by the industrial countries except in sectors such as food and clothing; largely exempted developing countries from the obligations to liberalize under the principle of special and differential treatment; but attempted to redress the latter by imposing greater obligations on developing country members that joined after the Uruguay Round.
Addressing the natural resource curse : an illustration from Nigeria by Xavier Sala-i-Martin ( Book )
11 editions published in 2003 in English and No Linguistic content and held by 84 libraries worldwide
Some natural resources-oil and minerals in particular-exert a negative and nonlinear impact on growth via their deleterious impact on institutional quality. We show this result to be very robust. The Nigerian experience provides telling confirmation of this aspect of natural resources. Waste and poor institutional quality stemming from oil appear to have been primarily responsible for Nigeria's poor long-run economic performance. We propose a solution for addressing this resource curse which involves directly distributing the oil revenues to the public. Even with all the difficulties that will no doubt plague its actual implementation, our proposal will, at the least, be vastly superior to the status quo. At best, however, it could fundamentally improve the quality of public institutions and, as a result, durably raise long-run growth performance.
From "Hindu growth" to productivity surge : the mystery of the Indian growth transition by Dani Rodrik ( Book )
16 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and No Linguistic content and held by 77 libraries worldwide
"Most conventional accounts of India's recent economic performance associate the pick-up in economic growth with the liberalization of 1991. This paper demonstrates that the transition to high growth occured around 1980, a full decade before economic liberalization. We investigate a number of hypotheses about the causes of this growth favorable external environment, fiscal stimulus, trade liberalization, internal liberalization, the green revolution, public investment and find them wanting. We argue that growth was triggered by an attitudinal shift on the part of the national government towards a pro-business (as opposed to pro-liberalization) approach. We provide some evidence that is consistent with this argument. We also find that registered manufacturing built up in previous decades played an important role in influencing the pattern of growth across the Indian states"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Institutions rule : the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development by Dani Rodrik ( Book )
10 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 74 libraries worldwide
Aid and growth : what does the cross-country evidence really show by Raghuram Rajan ( Book )
7 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 73 libraries worldwide
"We examine the effects of aid on growth--in cross-sectional and panel data--after correcting for thebias that aid typically goes to poorer countries, or to countries after poor performance. Even after thiscorrection, we find little robust evidence of a positive (or negative) relationship between aid inflowsinto a country and its economic growth. We also find no evidence that aid works better in betterpolicy or geographical environments, or that certain forms of aid work better than others. Ourfindings, which relate to the past, do not imply that aid cannot be beneficial in the future. But theydo suggest that for aid to be effective in the future, the aid apparatus will have to be rethought. Ourfindings raise the question: what aspects of aid offset what ought to be the indisputable growthenhancing effects of resource transfers? Thus, our findings support efforts under way at national andinternational levels to understand and improve aid effectiveness"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
What undermines aid's impact on growth by Raghuram Rajan ( Book )
7 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 68 libraries worldwide
We examine one of the most important and intriguing puzzles in economics: why it is so hard to find a robust effect of aid on the long-term growth of poor countries, even those with good policies. We look for a possible offset to the beneficial effects of aid, using a methodology that exploits both cross-country and within-country variation. We find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country's competitiveness, as reflected in a decline in the share of labor intensive and tradable industries in the manufacturing sector. We find evidence suggesting that these effects stem from the real exchange rate overvaluation caused by aid inflows. By contrast, private-to-private flows like remittances do not seem to create these adverse effects. We offer an explanation why and conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.
The prospects for sustained growth in Africa benchmarking the constraints by Simon Johnson ( Book )
2 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 45 libraries worldwide
A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate potential constraints on sustained growth for sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis suggests that what are usually regarded as first-order problems -- broad institutions, macroeconomic stability, trade openness, education, and inequality -- may not now be binding constraints in Africa, although the extent of ill-health, internal conflict, and societal fractionalization do stand out as problems in contemporary Africa. A key question is to what extent Africa can rely on manufactured exports as a mode of "escape from underdevelopment," a strategy successfully deployed by almost all the benchmark countries. The benchmarking comparison specifically raises two key concerns as far as a development strategy based on expanding exports of manufactures is concerned: micro-level institutions that affect the costs of exporting, and the level of the real exchange rate -- especially the need to avoid overvaluation.
Foreign capital and economic growth by Eswar Prasad ( Book )
4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 38 libraries worldwide
We document the recent phenomenon of "uphill" flows of capital from nonindustrial to industrial countries and analyze whether this pattern of capital flows has hurt growth in nonindustrial economies that export capital. Surprisingly, we find that there is a positive correlation between current account balances and growth among nonindustrial countries, implying that a reduced reliance on foreign capital is associated with higher growth. This result is weaker when we use panel data rather than cross-sectional averages over long periods of time, but in no case do we find any evidence that an increase in foreign capital inflows directly boosts growth. What explains these results, which are contrary to the predictions of conventional theoretical models? We provide some evidence that even successful developing countries have limited absorptive capacity for foreign resources, either because their financial markets are underdeveloped, or because their economies are prone to overvaluation caused by rapid capital inflows.
India and the multilateral trading system after Seattle : toward a proactive role by Aaditya Mattoo ( Book )
6 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 34 libraries worldwide
Mattoo and Subramanian argue that india should engage more actively in the multilateral trading system, to help facilitate and consolidate domestic reform and to gain access to export markets for India's goods and services.
Measuring services trade liberalization and its impact on economic growth : an illustration by Aaditya Mattoo ( Book )
6 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 31 libraries worldwide
Countries that fully liberalize their telecommunications and financial services sectors may be able to expect economic growth rates up to 1.5 percentage point higher than rates in other countries.
The Egyptian stabilization experience : an analytical retrospective by Arvind Subramanian ( Book )
8 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 31 libraries worldwide
What would a development-friendly WTO architecture really look like by Aaditya Mattoo ( Book )
6 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
This paper elaborates on a number of key principles that need to underpin a coherent and development-friendly architecture for the WTO. The key principles include enlarging the scope of WTO bargaining to include labor flows as well as capital flows; creating a structure that would provide a balance between furthering liberalization and providing some discretion or policy space to accommodate the inevitable political constraints; and minimizing the extent of regulatory harmonization. These principles, while applicable to all countries, may have less immediate relevance in addressing the problems of the least developed countries.
The prospects for sustained growth in Africa : benchmarking the constraints by Simon Johnson ( Book )
8 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate potential constraints on sustained growth for sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis suggests that what are usually regarded as first-order problems-broad institutions, macroeconomic stability, trade openness, education, and inequality-may not now be binding constraints in Africa, although the extent of ill-health, internal conflict, and societal fractionalization do stand out as problems in contemporary Africa. A key question is to what extent Africa can rely on manufactured exports as a mode of "escape from underdevelopment," a strategy successfully deployed by almost all the benchmark countries. The benchmarking comparison specifically raises two key concerns as far as a development strategy based on expanding exports of manufactures is concerned: micro-level institutions that affect the costs of exporting, and the level of the real exchange rate-especially the need to avoid overvaluation.
Institutions rule : the primacy of institutions over integration and geography in economic development by Dani Rodrik ( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining cross-country income levels using recently developed instruments for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions "trumps" everything else. Controlling for institutions, geography have at best weak direct effects on incomes, although it has a strong indirect effect through institutions. Similarly, controlling for institutions, trade has a negative, albeit, insignificant direct effect on income, although trade too has a positive effect on institutional quality. We relate our results to recent literature, and where differences exist, trace their origins to choices on samples, specification, and instrumentation.
Optimal tariffs : theory and practice by Arvind Subramanian ( Book )
4 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
This paper examines the theory underpinning the design of optimal tariffs in a developing economy, and the experience of implementation of tariff reforms. A central issue is whether and when a case can be made for a uniform tariff structure. While theory advocates a differentiated tariff structure (except under a balance of payments objective), political economy considerations, inadequate information, and administrative convenience point to a minimally differentiated tariff structure.
Policies, enforcement, and customs evasion : evidence from India by Prachi Mishra ( Book )
8 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
We examine the effect of tariff policies on evasion of customs duties, in the context of the trade reform in India of the 1990s. We exploit the variation in tariff rates across time and products to identify the evasion elasticity, namely, the effect of tariffs on evasion, and relate this elasticity to factors related to customs enforcement or the quality of customs institutions. We find a positive and robust effect of tariffs on import tax evasion. We then show that the evasion elasticity is influenced by certain product characteristics that determine how easy it is to detect evasion (with more differentiated products exhibiting a higher evasion elasticity). This evasion elasticity, which we broadly interpret as reflecting the quality of customs administration, has not improved over the 1990s. Finally, our results suggest that the effectiveness of customs in addressing evasion may be better in India than China, although China appears to be catching up over time.
The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and its Rules of Origin generosity undermined by Aaditya Mattoo ( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 21 libraries worldwide
This paper describes the United States recently enacted Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and assesses its quantitative impact on African exports. The AGOA expands the scope of preferential access of Africa's exports to the United States in key areas such as clothing. However, its medium term benefits estimated at about US$100-$140 million, an 8 11 percent addition to current non-oil exports would have been nearly five times greater (US$540 million) if no restrictive conditions had been imposed on the terms of market access. The most important of these conditions are the rules of origin with which African exporters of clothing must comply to benefit from duty-free access.
Eclipse : living in the shadow of China's economic dominance by Arvind Subramanian ( Book )
1 edition published in 2011 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
Africa Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Sub-Saharan Capital movements China Commerce Commerce--Mathematical models Commercial policy Comparative advantage (International trade) Customs administration Developing countries Economic assistance Economic development Economic development--Econometric models Economic development--Mathematical models Economic forecasting Economic history Economic policy Economic stabilization Egypt Electronic commerce Exports Finance Fiscal policy Foreign exchange rates Foreign trade regulation Free trade Free trade--Economic aspects Free trade--Mathematical models India Industrial productivity Industrial productivity--Mathematical models International economic relations International trade Investments, Foreign Labor mobility Mauritius Monetary policy Natural resources Nigeria Petroleum Service industries--Economic aspects Social history South Africa Tariff Tariff preferences Telecommunication--Economic aspects United States World Trade Organization
Arvind Subramanian fl.1986-