International Monetary Fund African DeptOverview
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Most widely held works by
International Monetary Fund
Sources of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in South Africa
by Ashok Bhundia
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Book
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4 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 99 libraries worldwide
Probabilistic sustainability of public debt a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey
by Evan Tanner
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Book
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6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 95 libraries worldwide This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
Local financial development and the aid-growth relationship
by Mwanza Nkusu
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Book
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4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 91 libraries worldwide
Modeling inflation for Mali
by Mame Astou Diouf
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Book
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4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 85 libraries worldwide This paper investigates how consumer price inflation is determined in Mali for 1979-2006 along three macroeconomic explanations: (1) monetarist theories, emphasizing the impact of excess money supply, (2) the structuralist hypothesis, stressing the impact of supply-side constraints, and (3) external theories, describing the effects of foreign transmission mechanisms on a small open economy. The analysis makes use of cointegration techniques and general-to-specific modeling. Average national rainfall, and to a lesser extent deviations from monetary and external sector equilibrium are found to be the main long-run determinants of inflation. The paper offers policy recommendations for controlling inflation in Mali.
A VAR analysis of Kenya's monetary policy transmission mechanism how does the central bank's REPO rate affect the economy
by Kevin C Cheng
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 85 libraries worldwide
Recent dynamics of crude oil prices
by Noureddine Krichene
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 82 libraries worldwide Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy was provided, viewing pressure on oil prices mainly as a result of rigid crude oil supply and an expanding world demand for crude oil. A change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in the underlying fundamentals. Market expectations, extracted from call and put option prices, anticipated no change, in the short term, in the underlying fundamentals. Markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy, and with higher probabilities, to rise, rather than fall, above the expected mean.
Republic of Madagascar first review under the three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and request for waiver and modification of performance criteria : staff report, staff statement, press release on the Executive Board discussion, and statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Madagascar
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Book
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4 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 79 libraries worldwide
United Republic of Tanzania second review under the policy support instrument : staff report, staff statement, press release on the Executive Board discussion, and statement by the Executive Director for Tanzania
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Book
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4 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 79 libraries worldwide
Cyclical patterns of government expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa facts and factors
by Victor Lledo
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Book
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5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 76 libraries worldwide This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important factors in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: change in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.
Assessing competitiveness after conflict the case of the Central African Republic
by Said A Bakhache
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Book
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2 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 75 libraries worldwide
Gabon Consultations de 2005 au titre de l'article IV, troisième revue de l'accord de confirmation et examen des assurances de financement : Rapport des services du FMI, note d'information au public et communiqué de presse sur la réunion du Conseil d'administration, et déclaration de l'administrateur pour le Gabon
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Book
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2 editions published in 2005 in French and held by 70 libraries worldwide
What is fuzzy about clustering in West Africa
by Charalambos G Tsangarides
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 52 libraries worldwide Applying techniques of clustering analysis to a set of variables suggested by the convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency areas, this paper looks for country homogeneities to assess membership in the existing and proposed monetary unions of the broader west African region. Our analysis reveals considerable dissimilarities in the economic characteristics of the countries in west and central Africa. In particular, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries do not form a cluster with the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries; and, within the WAMZ, there is a significant lack of homogeneity. Furthermore, when west and central African countries are considered together, we find significant heterogeneities within the CFA franc zone, and some interesting similarities between the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and WAMZ countries. Overall, our findings raise some questions about the geographical boundaries of several existing and proposed monetary unions.
Adopting full dollarization in postconflict economies would the gains compensate for the losses in Liberia
by Jiro Honda
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide
Excess liquidity and effectiveness of monetary policy evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
by Magnus Saxegaard
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide This paper examines the pattern of excess liquidity in sub-Saharan Africa and its consequences for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The paper argues that understanding the consequences of excess liquidity requires quantifying the extent to which commercial bank holdings of excess liquidity exceed levels required for precautionary purposes. It proposes a methodology for measuring this quantity and uses it to estimate a nonlinear structural VAR model for the CEMAC region, Nigeria and Uganda. The study suggests that excess liquidity weakens the monetary policy transmission mechanism and thus the ability of monetary authorities to influence demand conditions in the economy.
Distributional effects of oil price changes on household expenditures evidence from Mali
by Kangni Kpodar
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide Using an input-output approach, this paper assesses the distributional effects of a rise in various petroleum product prices in Mali. The results show that, although rising gasoline and diesel prices affect mainly nonpoor households, rising kerosene prices are most harmful to the poor. Overall, the impact of fuel prices on household budgets displays a U-shaped relationship with expenditure per capita. Regardless of the oil product considered, high income households would benefit disproportionately from oil price subsidies. This suggests that a petroleum price subsidy is an ineffective mechanism for protecting the income of poor households compared with a targeted subsidy.
World crude oil markets monetary policy and the recent oil shock
by Noureddine Krichene
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Book
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3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide
Economic growth and total factor productivity in Niger
by Jean-Claude Nachega
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Book
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3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide This paper investigates empirically the sources of aggregate output growth and the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Niger between 1963 and 2003. A growth accounting analysis indicates that the erosion in output per capita over the sample period is due to the negative growth of both TFP and physical capital per capita. Sound macroeconomic policies, supported by official development assistance and structural reforms, are found to be key to raising TFP growth.
Wealth effects in Europe a tale of two countries (Italy and the United Kingdom)
by Sònia Muñoz
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide This paper investigates the increasing exposure of European households to risky financial assets and the consequent impact on the economy. I analyze household data for Italy and the United Kingdom, countries that differ dramatically in their financial structure and capital markets. I estimate an endogenous switching model with bivariate switching to overcome two important obstacles in this line of research, namely, the consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Puzzle and the excess sensitivity puzzle. The results show that there are wealth effects in both countries. I find some evidence of liquidity constraints only in Italy and habit formation exclusively in the United Kingdom.
Did Botswana escape from the resource curse
by Atsushi Iimi
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Book
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4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide
Why do prices in Sierra Leone change so often? a case study using micro-level price data
by Arto Kovanen
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Book
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3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide We use cross-section and time-series techniques to analyze pricing behavior in Sierra Leone. In cross-sectional data, we find that inflation volatility and product diversification are the main factors explaining differences in the frequency of price adjustments. We show that variance in the fraction of prices subject to change is a key determinant of inflation volatility in Sierra Leone, indicating that retail prices are sensitive to economic events. We explain variations in this fraction over time with past inflation and monetary growth, which are important policy variables. more
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Africa Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, West Balance of payments Banks and banking Central African Republic Commerce Competition Debts, External Debts, Public Debts, Public--Econometric models Developing countries Dollar, American Economic assistance Economic development Economic development--Econometric models Economic history Economic policy Finance Finance, Public Financial crises Fiscal policy Fiscal policy--Econometric models Foreign exchange Foreign exchange rates Foreign exchange rates--Econometric models Gabon Inflation (Finance) Inflation (Finance)--Econometric models Interest rates International economic integration International Monetary Fund Liberia Madagascar Mali Monetary policy Monetary policy--Econometric models Monetary unions Niger Petroleum products--Prices Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models Poverty Saving and investment South Africa Statistics Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Tanzania United States World Bank World Bank Group
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