WorldCat Identities

Kraay, Aart

Overview
Works: 167 works in 649 publications in 2 languages and 5,960 library holdings
Genres: Case studies 
Roles: Author, Other, Honoree
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by Aart Kraay
China 2020 : development challenges in the new century by Banco Mundial( )

8 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 1,156 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Providing an overview of China's strengths and weaknesses, as well as its obstacles and options, this report argues that China can meet these challenges and sustain rapid growth, mainly because of its strengths. However, reforms are needed to nurture these strengths and to use them effectively; the spread of market forces must be encouraged, the government must begin serving markets and the integration with the world economy must be deepened
The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the U.S. current account by Aart Kraay( )

28 editions published between 2005 and 2012 in English and held by 212 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"Over the past decade the United States has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming U.S. stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing U.S. government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is that stock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position. "--World Bank web site
Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles by Aart Kraay( Book )

32 editions published between 1998 and 2001 in English and held by 188 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers, while poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. Since new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demands than those of poor countries. Since skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labour supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross-country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data. Keywords: International Capital Flows, Sovereigned risk, Country Portfolios. JEL Classification: F32, F34
When is growth pro-poor? cross-country evidence by Aart Kraay( )

18 editions published between 2003 and 2013 in English and Undetermined and held by 170 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Growth is pro-poor if the poverty measure of interest falls. According to this definition there are three potential sources of pro-poor growth: (1) a high rate of growth of average incomes; (2) a high sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes; and (3) a poverty-reducing pattern of growth in relative incomes. The author empirically decomposes changes in poverty in a large sample of developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s into these three components. In the medium to long run, most of the variation in changes in poverty can be attributed to growth in average incomes, suggesting that policies and institutions that promote broad-based growth should be central to the pro-poor growth agenda. Most of the remainder of the variation in poverty is due to poverty-reducing patterns of growth in relative incomes, rather than differences in the sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes. Cross-country evidence provides relatively little guidance as to the policies and institutions that promote these other sources of pro-poor growth
Country portfolios by Aart Kraay( Book )

29 editions published between 2000 and 2004 in English and Spanish and held by 156 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

How do countries hold their financial wealth? We construct a new database of countries' claims on capital located at home and abroad, and international borrowing and lending, covering 68 countries from 1966 to 1997. We find that a small amount of capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. Countries' foreign asset positions are remarkably persistent, and mostly take the form of foreign loans rather than foreign equity. To interpret these facts, we build a simple model of international capital flows that highlights the interplay between diminishing returns, production risk and sovereign risk. We show that in the presence of reasonable diminishing returns and production risk, the probability that international crises occur twice a century is enough to generate a set of country portfolios that are roughly consistent with the data
Current accounts in the long and short run by Aart Kraay( Book )

22 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 126 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Faced with income fluctuations, countries smooth their consumption by raising savings when income is high, and vice versa. How much of these savings do countries invest at home and abroad? In other words, what are the effects of fluctuations in savings on domestic investment and the current account? In the long run, we find that countries invest the marginal unit of savings in domestic and foreign assets in the same proportions as in their initial portfolio, so that the latter is remarkably stable. In the short run, we find that countries invest the marginal unit of savings mostly in foreign assets, and only gradually do they rebalance their portfolio back to its original composition. This means that countries not only try to smooth consumption, but also domestic investment. To achieve this, they use foreign assets as a buffer stock. Keywords: Current account adjustment, short and long run, international capital flows. JEL Classification: F32, F41
Product prices and the OECD cycle by Aart Kraay( Book )

22 editions published between 2000 and 2001 in English and held by 124 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

It is well known that business cycles in OECD countries exhibit a remarkable degree of synchronization. Much less known is that the peak of the OECD cycle is associated with high prices of labour-intensive products and low prices of capital-intensive ones. We document this cyclical behavior of product prices and argue that it offers an important clue as to why business cycles are so synchronized. Positive shocks in one or more countries raise the prices of labour-intensive products and, as a result, the demand for labour throughout the industrialized world. This generates increases in wages, employment and output in all industrial countries. Through this channel, shocks are positively transmitted across countries, creating a force towards the synchronization of business cycles
Growth is good for the poor by David Dollar( )

11 editions published between 2000 and 2001 in English and held by 111 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

When average incomes rise, the average incomes of the poorest fifth of society rise proportionately. This holds across regions, periods, income levels, and growth rates. But relatively little is known about the broad forces that account for the variations across countries and across time in the share of income accruing to the poorest fifth
Growth without governance by Daniel Kaufmann( )

10 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 109 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

It is well known that there is a strong positive correlation between per capita incomes and the quality of governance across countries. Kaufmann and Kraay propose an empirical strategy that allows separation of this correlation into (1) a strong positive causal effect running from better governance to higher per capita incomes, and, perhaps surprisingly at first, (2) a weak and even negative causal effect running in the opposite direction from per capita incomes to governance. The first result confirms existing evidence on the importance of good governance for economic development. The second result is new and suggests the absence of a "virtuous circle" in which higher incomes lead to further improvements in governance. This motivates the authors' choice of title, "Growth Without Governance." They document this evidence using a newly updated set of worldwide governance-indicators covering 175 countries for the period 2000-01, and use the results to interpret the relationship between incomes and governance focusing on the Latin America and Caribbean region--within a worldwide empirical context. Finally, the authors speculate about the potential importance of elite influence and state capture in accounting for the surprising negative effects of per capita incomes on governance, present some evidence on such capture in some Latin American countries, and suggest priorities for actions to improve governance when such pernicious elite influence shapes public policy. This paper--a joint product of the World Bank Institute and the Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the Bank to generate and analyze worldwide governance indicators, assessing the manifestations and consequences of governance. The full governance indicators dataset is available interactively at http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata2001.htm
Governance Matters V Aggregate And Individual Governance Indicators For 1996 - 2005 by Daniel Kaufmann( )

11 editions published between 2006 and 2012 in English and Undetermined and held by 108 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The authors report on the latest version of the worldwide governance indicators, covering 213 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance from 1996 until end-2005: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. The latest indicators are based on hundreds of variables and reflect the views of thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents and experts worldwide. Although global averages of governance display no marked trends during 1996-2005, nearly one-third of countries exhibit significant changes [for better or for worse] on at least one dimension of governance. Three new features distinguish this update. (1) The authors have moved to annual reporting of governance estimates. This update includes new governance estimates for 2003 and 2005, as well as minor backward revisions to biannual historical data for 1996-2004. (2) The authors are, for the first time, publishing the individual measures of governance from virtually every data source underlying the aggregate governance indicators. The ready availability of the individual data sources underlying the aggregate governance indicators is aimed at further enhancing the transparency of the methodology and of the resulting aggregate indicators, as well as helping data users and policymakers identify specific governance challenges in individual countries. (3) The authors present new evidence on the reliability of expert assessments of governance which, alongside survey responses, form part of the aggregate measures of governance
Poverty traps, aid, and growth by Aart Kraay( )

9 editions published between 2005 and 2012 in English and held by 107 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"The authors examine the empirical evidence in support of the poverty trap view of underdevelopment. They calibrate simple aggregate growth models in which poverty traps can arise due to either low saving or low technology at low levels of development. They then use these models to assess the empirical relevance of poverty traps and their consequences for policy. The authors find little evidence of the existence of poverty traps based on these two broad mechanisms. When put to the task of explaining the persistence of low income in African countries, the models require either unreasonable values for key parameters, or else generate counterfactual predictions regarding the relations between key variables. These results call into question the view that a large scaling-up of aid to the poorest countries is a necessary condition for sharp and sustained increases in growth. "--World Bank web site
The welfare effects of a large depreciation the case of Egypt, 2000-2005 by Aart Kraay( )

13 editions published between 2007 and 2012 in English and held by 107 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Egyptian pound depreciated sharply between 2000 and 2005, declining by 26 percent in nominal trade-weighted terms. The author investigates the effect of the large depreciation on household welfare operating through exchange rate-induced changes in consumer prices. He estimates exchange rate pass-through regressions using disaggregated monthly consumer price indices to isolate the impact of the exchange rate changes on consumer prices. Then he uses household-level data from the 2000 and 2005 Egyptian household surveys to quantify the welfare effects of these consumer price changes at the household level. The average welfare loss due to exchange rate-induced price increases was equivalent to 7.4 percent of initial expenditure. Stronger estimated exchange rate pass-through for food items imply that this effect disproportionately affected poorer households
Governance Matters VI Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006 by Daniel Kaufmann( )

10 editions published between 2007 and 2012 in English and Undetermined and held by 106 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper reports on the latest update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2006: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. This latest set of aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance taken from 33 data sources provided by 30 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector, and nongovernmental organization experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The paper also explicitly reports the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. It finds that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons, as well as monitoring progress over time. In less than a decade, a substantial number of countries exhibit statistically significant improvements in at least one dimension of governance, while other countries exhibit deterioration in some dimensions. The decade-long aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated individual indicators, are available in a newly-redesigned website at www.govindicators.org
Who gets debt relief ? by Nicolas Depetris Chauvin( )

8 editions published between 2006 and 2012 in English and held by 104 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"The authors use preliminary results from an ongoing effort to construct estimates of debt relief to study its allocation across a sample of 62 low-income countries. They find some evidence that debt relief, particularly from multilateral creditors, has been allocated to countries with better policies in recent years. Somewhat surprisingly, conditional on per capita incomes and policy, more indebted countries are not much more likely to receive debt relief. But countries that have large debts especially to multilateral creditors are more likely to receive debt relief. The authors do not find much evidence that debt relief responds to shocks to GDP growth. Finally, most of the persistence in debt relief is driven by slowly changing country characteristics, indicating that it may be difficult for countries to "exit" from cycles of repeated debt relief. "--World Bank web site
Trade integration and risk sharing by Aart Kraay( Book )

14 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 103 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? We study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets and find that this increases the volatility of the trade balance. This result applies regardless of whether supply or demand shocks are the main source of economic fluctuations. Both type of shocks generate fluctuations in the trade balance that are in part moderated by stabilizing movements in the terms of trade. Trade integration dampens these terms of trade movements and, for a given distribution of shocks, amplifies fluctuations in the trade balance. To overturn this result, one must assume that either trade integration is sufficiently biased towards goods with strong comparative advantage and/or risk aversion is sufficiently extreme. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that, for reasonable parameter values, increased trade in services could double the volatility of the trade balance. Keywords: International trade, risk sharing, trade integration, trade balance. JEL Classification: F15, F36, G15
Aggregating governance indicators by Daniel Kaufmann( Book )

9 editions published in 1999 in English and Undetermined and held by 103 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

With the right method, aggregate indicators can provide useful estimates of basic governance concepts as well as measures of the imprecision of these aggregate estimates and their components
Spatial correlations in panel data by John C Driscoll( )

15 editions published between 1989 and 1999 in English and Undetermined and held by 102 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

December 1995 A correction for spatial correlation in panel data. In many empirical applications involving combined time-series and cross-sectional data, the residuals from different cross-sectional units are likely to be correlated with one another. This is often the case in applications in macroeconomics and international economics where the cross-sectional units may be countries, states, or regions observed over time. Spatial correlations among such cross-sections may arise for a number of reasons, ranging from observed common shocks such as terms of trade or oil shocks, to unobserved contagion or neighborhood effects which propagate across countries in complex ways. Driscoll and Kraay observe that the presence of such spatial correlations in residuals complicates standard inference procedures that combine time-series and cross-sectional data since these techniques typically require the assumption that the cross-sectional units are independent. When this assumption is violated, estimates of standard errors are inconsistent, and hence are not useful for inference. And standard corrections for spatial correlations will be valid only if spatial correlations are of particular restrictive forms. Driscoll and Kraay propose a correction for spatial correlations that does not require strong assumptions concerning their form -- and show that it is superior to a number of commonly used alternatives. This paper -- a product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to study international macroeconomics
Governance matters by Daniel Kaufmann( Book )

10 editions published in 1999 in English and Undetermined and held by 101 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Six new aggregate measures capturing various dimensions of governance provide new evidence of a strong causal relationship from better governance to better development outcomes
Institutions, trade, and growth revisiting the evidence by David Dollar( )

9 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 98 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Several recent papers have attempted to identify the partial effects of trade integration and institutional quality on long-run growth using the geographical determinants of trade and the historical determinants of institutions as instruments. Dollar and Kraay show that many of the specifications in these papers are weakly identified despite the apparently good performance of the instruments in first-stage regressions. Consequently, they argue that the cross-country variation in institutions, trade, and their geographical and historical determinants is not very informative about the partial effects of these variables on long-run growth. This paper--a product of Investment Climate, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to study institutions and development
Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks? by Aart Kraay( )

11 editions published in 2000 in English and Undetermined and held by 98 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

January 2000 - No - there is no systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in industrial and developing countries, Kraay argues that high interest rates do not defend currencies against speculative attacks. In fact, there is a striking lack of any systematic association between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the causes and consequences of financial crises. The author may be contacted at akraay@worldbank.org
 
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China 2020 : development challenges in the new century
Alternative Names
Aart Kraay economist (World Bank Group)

Aart Kraay Wirtschaftswissenschaftler/in (World Bank Group)

Kraay, A.

Kraay, A. (Aart)

Kraay, Aart C.

크래이, 아트

Languages
English (289)

Spanish (1)

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